cixelsyd Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 2 hours ago, N.E. Brigand said: OK, but this argument also means we don't know the number of flu infections in a given year either: we certainly don't test everyone for that either. No, but whoever comes forward for examination gets diagnosed. That establishes a meaningful baseline. That brings me to a question posed by another intelligent contributor here: 17 hours ago, skevinp said: What will be the criteria for a return to normalcy? This has had me thinking. Ultimately, we need that same kind of meaningful baseline established for this virus. As long as we are playing catch-up on testing, the rate of "reported cases" will rise out of proportion to the rate of viral spread, and we will never know when it is safe to come out of our caves again. I keep hearing this crisis being compared to a war effort. Well, then, we need a D-Day invasion of testing. Amass so much testing capacity that everyone who wants one can get one. When we reach that point, the results will give us that baseline we need. Seems that some of the steps being taken (i.e. testing at no cost to the patient, drive-thrus, partnering with the biggest labs and diagnostics providers, etc.) could get us there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob P. Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 4 hours ago, N.E. Brigand said: OK, but this argument also means we don't know the number of flu infections in a given year either: we certainly don't test everyone for that either. Exactly! The only real ratio that can be used is the death rate vs population. Using that, the China numbers don't look so bad. If one doesn't want to use the entire population as the denominator and it is claimed that 60% of the population will contract Covid-19, then use 60% of a country's population as the denominator and establish the % death with that. You will see that the % is pretty small, but then that doesn't sell news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N.E. Brigand Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 11 minutes ago, Bob P. said: Exactly! The only real ratio that can be used is the death rate vs population. Using that, the China numbers don't look so bad. If one doesn't want to use the entire population as the denominator and it is claimed that 60% of the population will contract Covid-19, then use 60% of a country's population as the denominator and establish the % death with that. You will see that the % is pretty small, but then that doesn't sell news. Well in the case of China you need to use Hubei province (where Wuhan is located), which was locked down, and the rest of China. You'll find the rate is much higher in Hubei. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFA1970 Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 It's going to happen. We just need to wrap our heads around that. We are not immune to this. I know some want to say...it will be over by June. Nope. That would take a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poppycock Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 19 hours ago, skevinp said: What will be the criteria for a return to normalcy? BD wins again! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimF-LowBari Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 Zen moment on local weather report. Note: guv is shutting all non-essential business at midnight. ”it might be a little wet for the morning commute.... (pause and give a weird look at the camera) if you’re still commuting”. Not sure if that was in the script or it hit him what was said as he said it.... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob P. Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 1 minute ago, N.E. Brigand said: Well in the case of China you need to use Hubei province (where Wuhan is located), which was locked down, and the rest of China. You'll find the rate is much higher in Hubei. Yes,but not the 3% figure oft cited! There are 3215 deaths reported in all China. Let's use 60 % the population quarantined as a denominator (100,000,000 x .6 =60MM). That is not even .01%. Now apply that figure to the American population (.6 x 360,000,000) and we have 21,600. Isn't that strangely close to the number cited for the yearly death rate from the flu inthe US? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N.E. Brigand Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 15 minutes ago, Bob P. said: Yes,but not the 3% figure oft cited! There are 3215 deaths reported in all China. Let's use 60 % the population quarantined as a denominator (100,000,000 x .6 =60MM). That is not even .01%. Now apply that figure to the American population (.6 x 360,000,000) and we have 21,600. Isn't that strangely close to the number cited for the yearly death rate from the flu inthe US? OK, now do the same thing the H1N1 swine flu in the U.S. as of June 2009. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N.E. Brigand Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 Good discussion with a public health scientist who explains that this may be the most important week in the whole U.S. outbreak, when social distancing matters more than ever, because in about a week, everyone's going to have a better sense of who's sick and who's not. See also this piece: Social Distancing: This Is Not a Snow Day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob P. Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 13 minutes ago, N.E. Brigand said: OK, now do the same thing the H1N1 swine flu in the U.S. as of June 2009. Why? Besides I don't have those figures handy and I am going to bed now - It is 0005 hrs 17 March in Spain where I am presently! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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