Encouragement Thread - If you need support let’s help

[JimF-LowBari]

8 minutes ago, cixelsyd said:

Oh, there is so much of that, there is little point in trying to draw any conclusions from numbers anymore.

If case counts go up, is that the virus spreading?  Or is testing spreading?

First we counted deaths from C-19, then deaths with C-19... now deaths during C-19.  Hospitals are paid more for COVID-19 claims, so when in doubt, fill it out.

Sister and I have been following new cases in the state and we were WTF! when numbers jumped up from 1000+ to 1400+. This was after numbers had been slowly declining. Then state medical head announced about the catching up and started breathing easier.

Weird part is my zip code went from 60+ to 80+ in two days (pop. 9000) right after that. Then saw long term care facilities were being checked. Have 3 in the zip code so guessing that was the cause.

Yeah pure numbers can throw you without English behind them

Edited May 3, 2020 by JimF-LowBari

[GUARDLING]

1 minute ago, N.E. Brigand said:

Yes. And there are guidelines for what benchmarks should be reached in order for each state to open up to a given point. They were put out by the federal government just a couple weeks ago: decline in cases over two weeks, X amount of testing done every day, and so on. 

And didn't they say just today that states opening are NOT even reaching the guidelines to do so?

[skevinp]

6 minutes ago, JimF-LowBari said:

Need an “ouch” button.... 

My favorite kind of humor is the kind that makes people mad at me for making them laugh at it.

[JimF-LowBari]

5 minutes ago, skevinp said:

My favorite kind of humor is the kind that makes people mad at me for making them laugh at it.

I love sarcasm even when directed at me, so that was a good ouch. 😜

Looking at federal guidelines info above wondering what areas can match the testing portion. Have been following my home so much with reopening I missed reading federal guidelines. 

Wow really weird thought... I worked for Department of Defense. Would federal or state guidelines be followed? There is a line painted on the entrance roads stating where federal property starts. Currently my old co-workers are teleworking but have had one day a week TW option for years so not a totally new idea.

Edited May 3, 2020 by JimF-LowBari

[N.E. Brigand]

7 minutes ago, cixelsyd said:

First we counted deaths from C-19, then deaths with C-19... now deaths during C-19.  Hospitals are paid more for COVID-19 claims, so when in doubt, fill it out.

As a reminder: this is how deaths from disease are always counted. The often quoted statistic that 12,000-61,000 people die of the flu every year in the U.S. is not based on reported flu deaths at the time. It's figures calculated after the fact based on the difference between the number of total deaths in a given year and the average in previous years, minus every death that can be ruled out as being due to other causes (like car crashes and cancer). The number of excess deaths this year substantially exceeds the number of deaths currently attributed to COVID-19. Over the next couple years, as they calculate the number of COVID-19 deaths in 2020, it's going to be 25-50% higher than the numbers you're seeing reported right now.

In other words, the real number of U.S. deaths now, about two months after the first death, isn't the 68,000 deaths currently counted. It's 85,000-102,000 deaths. That's what the history books will record. And if we're now at our peak, then logically we're only halfway to the final count just from this wave.

So let's hope we're actually well past the peak. If so, that would be encouraging.

[greg_orangecounty]

13 minutes ago, JimF-LowBari said:

Hmmm which brings up the question: should we open up and have penalties $$$ or otherwise for people who don’t follow guidelines to protect the 99%? My thinking is leaning more that way. 
 

edit: also includes plants that don’t provide PPE for workers who have to work side by side. Thinking of the meat processing plants that have been hit. Including one about an hour from me.

The 99% are not dying of this virus.  The vast majority are over 70 years and older in senior care and convalescent facilities.  That's who's dying. Focus the quarantine measures and testing on THAT population, not the younger and healthy.  The rest, get back to work and use masks in confined spaces before we plunge ourselves into further economic suicide. 

The projections were dead wrong, thank God.  We know that now.  

[skevinp]

5 minutes ago, JimF-LowBari said:

Sister and I have been following new cases in the state and we were WTF! when numbers jumped up from 1000+ to 1400+. This was after numbers had been slowly declining. Then state medical head announced about the catching up and started breathing easier.

Weird part is my zip code went from 60+ to 80+ in two days (pop. 9000) right after that. Then saw long term care facilities were being checked. Have 3 in the zip code so guessing that was the cause.

Yeah pure numbers can throw you without English behind them

That’s why we have to listen to everything carefully and critically.  I don’t think eliminating pure numbers is the answer.  The very thought makes me nervous.

[JimF-LowBari]

Just now, greg_orangecounty said:

The 99% are not dying of this virus.  The vast majority are over 70 years and older in senior care and convalescent facilities.  That's who's dying. Focus the quarantine measures and testing on THAT population, not the younger and healthy.  The rest, get back to work and use masks in confined spaces before we plunge ourselves into further economic suicide. 

The projections were dead wrong, thank God.  We know that now.  

When I say 99% I meant the people taking steps (mask, stay in place, social distancing, etc) trying not to catch it. I didn’t mean people who catch it or die from it. Sorry for any confusion. 

[Ghost]

And on our home front, this location is about 10 miles from us.  Closed after it was opened.  Dahhh!

https://www.stgeorgeutah.com/news/archive/2020/05/03/cdr-gunlock-state-park-announces-temporary-closure/#.Xq8rRKhKhPY

[N.E. Brigand]

2 minutes ago, greg_orangecounty said:

The projections were dead wrong, thank God.  We know that now.  

Some of them were. For instance, one projection in late February was that the 15 cases in the U.S. would soon be 0 cases. That was wrong.

At some point in March in our discussions here, I skeptically pointed to a projection from a prominent think tank writer a few weeks earlier that claimed the U.S. would max out at 500 deaths. At about that time, the same analyst revised his projection to 5,000 deaths. In mid-April, that commentator revised the projection again, to 50,000 deaths. All those were wrong too.