Encouragement Thread - If you need support let’s help

[N.E. Brigand]

This story from the Wall Street Journal ("Virus Surge Not Seen After Protests") would be very encouraging news if it proves to be true, although I wonder if it's still too soon to say. (If you can't access the article because of the WSJ paywal, there's a photo of the first several paragraphs of the story here. I'd copy that image here, but it includes a photo of a protest that might lead people off topic, although I will quote part of the photo caption: "Silent protests ... such as this one ... are being organized in hopes of curbing virus infection....")

If large outdoor gatherings in warm weather where masks are worn don't lead to higher transmission rates, what implications could this have for drum corps? Hopefully it's a moot point next summer because there will be a vaccine, but if not, does this hint at how shows could run anyway? And how much does the "silent" part matter (from the photo caption)? Drum corps shows where audience members are required to wear masks and encouraged not to cheer? And what about the members? Show designs that always keep them at least six feet apart?

I think a big challenge for shows would be how packed it can get in the semi-enclosed spaces under the stands in the concession lines and restrooms.

[skevinp]

1 hour ago, N.E. Brigand said:

I've seen it suggested that it may be that lately it's younger people who are getting infected more often, which would indeed lower the death rate.

I imagine that far more asymptomatic people are getting tested now that testing is more available.  That would mean we are more often learning that younger people have been infected, not necessarily that more young people have been infected.  

I have long suspected that a much higher percentage of the population has this than some realize, which means that the percentage of infected people who die from it is much lower than we get from simply comparing deaths to known cases.  

[N.E. Brigand]

1 hour ago, skevinp said:

I imagine that far more asymptomatic people are getting tested now that testing is more available.  That would mean we are more often learning that younger people have been infected, not necessarily that more young people have been infected.  

I have long suspected that a much higher percentage of the population has this than some realize, which means that the percentage of infected people who die from it is much lower than we get from simply comparing deaths to known cases.  

Serology studies thus far do not indicate that a large percentage of the population, and certainly nothing like a majority, have been infected. Even in New York city, one of the hardest hit areas, it appears that at most 25% of the population was infected. So even there, most people are still at risk if we should let it flare up again.

In the rest of the country, outside of a few hotspots, it's probably 5% or fewer who have had the disease. For a while now, most sources who report on daily testing and deaths also report on the number tested and the positive rate. Nationally, the rate lately has been in the range of 4-6% (it was much higher back in March and April) -- and that's despite the fact that most people who get tested (roughly 400,000-500,000 each day) are those who think they might have been exposed. The more testing that happens, the lower the rate generally goes. It's down to 1% now in NYC. But in some of the southern and western states, the positivity rate has gone up recently along with the number of tests.

[Terri Schehr]

Well, back into hibernation.

[Ghost]

2 minutes ago, Terri Schehr said:

Well, back into hibernation.

Welcome to DCP Ms. Schehr.  Seems like you may have been active several years back to have the number of posts you have.  With no season, not much going on though.  I'm getting a little tired of watched the KBO.  One of these games, and infielder diving for a ground ball might actually stop it and make a great throw to first.  Haven't seen many Korean pitchers with a fast ball close to 95.  Oh well!  It is what it is.  Again, welcome.  Back to Elvis Cole.

[Jurassic Lancer]

46 minutes ago, Terri Schehr said:

Well, back into hibernation.

 

37 minutes ago, Ghost said:

Welcome to DCP Ms. Schehr.  Seems like you may have been active several years back to have the number of posts you have.  With no season, not much going on though.  I'm getting a little tired of watched the KBO.  One of these games, and infielder diving for a ground ball might actually stop it and make a great throw to first.  Haven't seen many Korean pitchers with a fast ball close to 95.  Oh well!  It is what it is.  Again, welcome.  Back to Elvis Cole.

It only seems like several years ago.

[skevinp]

1 hour ago, N.E. Brigand said:

Serology studies thus far do not indicate that a large percentage of the population, and certainly nothing like a majority, have been infected. Even in New York city, one of the hardest hit areas, it appears that at most 25% of the population was infected. So even there, most people are still at risk if we should let it flare up again.

In the rest of the country, outside of a few hotspots, it's probably 5% or fewer who have had the disease. For a while now, most sources who report on daily testing and deaths also report on the number tested and the positive rate. Nationally, the rate lately has been in the range of 4-6% (it was much higher back in March and April) -- and that's despite the fact that most people who get tested (roughly 400,000-500,000 each day) are those who think they might have been exposed. The more testing that happens, the lower the rate generally goes. It's down to 1% now in NYC. But in some of the southern and western states, the positivity rate has gone up recently along with the number of tests.

Only 25% of NYC?  Thanks for making my point.

[MikeRapp]

6 hours ago, skevinp said:

I imagine that far more asymptomatic people are getting tested now that testing is more available.  That would mean we are more often learning that younger people have been infected, not necessarily that more young people have been infected.  

I have long suspected that a much higher percentage of the population has this than some realize, which means that the percentage of infected people who die from it is much lower than we get from simply comparing deaths to known cases.  

It also means far more immune people, which means less community spread.

[MikeRapp]

6 hours ago, N.E. Brigand said:

Serology studies thus far do not indicate that a large percentage of the population, and certainly nothing like a majority, have been infected. Even in New York city, one of the hardest hit areas, it appears that at most 25% of the population was infected. So even there, most people are still at risk if we should let it flare up again.

In the rest of the country, outside of a few hotspots, it's probably 5% or fewer who have had the disease. For a while now, most sources who report on daily testing and deaths also report on the number tested and the positive rate. Nationally, the rate lately has been in the range of 4-6% (it was much higher back in March and April) -- and that's despite the fact that most people who get tested (roughly 400,000-500,000 each day) are those who think they might have been exposed. The more testing that happens, the lower the rate generally goes. It's down to 1% now in NYC. But in some of the southern and western states, the positivity rate has gone up recently along with the number of tests.

30% immunity essentially stops community spread.

[Jurassic Lancer]

33 minutes ago, MikeRapp said:

It also means far more immune people, which means less community spread.

Though there are reports of reinfection. What’s up with that? Serious question.

Edited June 20, 2020 by Jurassic Lancer