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Encouragement Thread - If you need support let’s help


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10 hours ago, N.E. Brigand said:

Let me put the most encouraging coronavirus news I saw today at the top this time: the U.S. reports having conducted 640,000 tests in the past 24 hours, and that's the most ever. So no matter what anyone says, we're not slowing the testing down. Not a joke. I wouldn't say I never kid, but I'm not kidding now.

(And if we could just boost that number about 10% and then keep it going every day for a month or so, we might finally get a handle on this thing.)

Partly as a result of that, the U.S. also reported its highest ever number of new cases today: 42,000.

But that case record we broke today is just one day old. Yesterday, the U.S. also reported its highest ever number of new cases ever: 39,000. And yesterday's number of reported tests was not a record.

However, the number of deaths reported today, 646, is down both from yesterday (722) and from one week ago (693).

(That death total of 646 ignores numbers from New Jersey, which has now  gone back through its death records from the past three months to find Covid-19 deaths that were missed in the original reporting. That state today announced it found more than 1,800 deaths not previously counted. As a reminder: this process is exactly how all disease statistics are handled every year. For example, the annual numbers you've seen reported for the flu are not the numbers that were reported at the time.)

On the other hand, though, the largest hospital complex in the country (or maybe the world), the Texas Medical Center in the Houston area, maxed out its regular ICU capacity today. As its administrators predicted yesterday, they're now at 100%. They have been planning for this and have some surge capacity. Unfortunately, based on current trends in that area, TMC says they expect to run out of those additional ICU beds in less than two weeks.

Also: Arizona what are you doing?

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Oh, thank you so much for pointing this out.

California is also experiencing an explosion of cases.  They have taken over as the state with the 2nd highest case count, a rank that New Jersey appeared to have permanent ownership of until very recently.

But there is more encouraging news.  The New York metropolitan area has taken a turn for the better.  New York state, and its neighbors New Jersey and Connecticut, have flattened the curve, just like you have been advocating for so vocally.  Maybe they should be our role models going forward.  What are they doing now?  Why, just two days ago, they made news by restricting entry to their states from coronavirus hotspots.  They are doing this because, as their governors say (and as you have said repeatedly here), we need to take this situation seriously.

Well, then, we need to take the situations in Texas, Arizona and California seriously too.  Logic suggests that they should also restrict entry from coronavirus hotspots (including the big one they share to their south).

Again, thank you so much for providing all this information, and helping us connect the dots.

 

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3 hours ago, cixelsyd said:

Again, thank you so much for providing all this information, and helping us connect the dots.

Literal dots this time!

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3 hours ago, cixelsyd said:

California is also experiencing an explosion of cases.  They have taken over as the state with the 2nd highest case count, a rank that New Jersey appeared to have permanent ownership of until very recently.

But there is more encouraging news.  The New York metropolitan area has taken a turn for the better.  New York state, and its neighbors New Jersey and Connecticut, have flattened the curve, just like you have been advocating for so vocally.  Maybe they should be our role models going forward.  What are they doing now?  Why, just two days ago, they made news by restricting entry to their states from coronavirus hotspots.  They are doing this because, as their governors say (and as you have said repeatedly here), we need to take this situation seriously.

Well, then, we need to take the situations in Texas, Arizona and California seriously too.  Logic suggests that they should also restrict entry from coronavirus hotspots (including the big one they share to their south).

Everything you say here makes sense to me.

What New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut have done is to require a 14-day quarantine for anyone traveling from a state with a testing positivity rate of 10% or higher (and that includes residents of NY, NJ, and CT returning from visits to such states). When that restriction was announced two days ago, I read that nine states were affected: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, and Washington. I don't know what data those three northeast states are using. If they were relying on the chart above, then it would appear that they also should restrict travel from Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, and Nevada -- but they can remove Arkansas, North Carolina, and Washington from the list. At this point, California, which is one of the states doing the most testing on a per capita basis (it looks from that chart like they're 8th out of 51: the chart includes D.C.), is at a 6% positivity rate, and thus has not (yet) crossed the threshold for the northeast travel restrictions, but obviously that could change.

As I noted earlier in this thread, interstate quarantine restrictions are nothing new in the U.S. In 1793, Alexander Hamiltion, who was then Secretary of the Treasury, was quarantined, along with his wife, by the city of Albany because they had arrived there from Philadelphia, which was in the midst of a yellow fever outbreak.

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1 hour ago, N.E. Brigand said:

Everything you say here makes sense to me.

What New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut have done is to require a 14-day quarantine for anyone traveling from a state with a testing positivity rate of 10% or higher (and that includes residents of NY, NJ, and CT returning from visits to such states). When that restriction was announced two days ago, I read that nine states were affected: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, and Washington. I don't know what data those three northeast states are using. If they were relying on the chart above, then it would appear that they also should restrict travel from Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, and Nevada -- but they can remove Arkansas, North Carolina, and Washington from the list. At this point, California, which is one of the states doing the most testing on a per capita basis (it looks from that chart like they're 8th out of 51: the chart includes D.C.), is at a 6% positivity rate, and thus has not (yet) crossed the threshold for the northeast travel restrictions, but obviously that could change.

 

NJ has removed Washington State from the list, as of my morning paper.

However, unlike NY, the NJ quarantine is not being enforced or punished by any kind of fine...it is up to people from the states noted to self-quarantine when they arrive. Anecdotal reports from arriving flights is that nobody was even told about the requirement, again according to my paper this morning. Maybe it was too soon to get something specific in place that fast; we'll see.

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Encouraged that Northeast has highest percentage of people who wear masks in public. My guess is we’ve seen how bad it had become and we freaking learned......

Last county in PA to go green 7/3. County leaders had reopened early and upswing in cases given for reason for being last to open. (Or county leaders wanting to impeach the gov is the reason - depending on your POV. 🙄 My sister lives ther but talking about the state rep jacks her BP)

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NJ posted rules for reopening schools in September. Some of them are strict “must” and others are “should” types of guidelines. The state is giving local districts flexibility since there are wide variations in capabilities and district makeup across NJ. The document seems pretty good. 

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20 hours ago, N.E. Brigand said:

Let me put the most encouraging coronavirus news I saw today at the top this time: the U.S. reports having conducted 640,000 tests in the past 24 hours, and that's the most ever. So no matter what anyone says, we're not slowing the testing down. Not a joke. I wouldn't say I never kid, but I'm not kidding now.

(And if we could just boost that number about 10% and then keep it going every day for a month or so, we might finally get a handle on this thing.)

Partly as a result of that, the U.S. also reported its highest ever number of new cases today: 42,000.

But that case record we broke today is just one day old. Yesterday, the U.S. also reported its highest ever number of new cases ever: 39,000. And yesterday's number of reported tests was not a record.

However, the number of deaths reported today, 646, is down both from yesterday (722) and from one week ago (693).

(That death total of 646 ignores numbers from New Jersey, which has now  gone back through its death records from the past three months to find Covid-19 deaths that were missed in the original reporting. That state today announced it found more than 1,800 deaths not previously counted. As a reminder: this process is exactly how all disease statistics are handled every year. For example, the annual numbers you've seen reported for the flu are not the numbers that were reported at the time.)

On the other hand, though, the largest hospital complex in the country (or maybe the world), the Texas Medical Center in the Houston area, maxed out its regular ICU capacity today. As its administrators predicted yesterday, they're now at 100%. They have been planning for this and have some surge capacity. Unfortunately, based on current trends in that area, TMC says they expect to run out of those additional ICU beds in less than two weeks.

Also: Arizona what are you doing?

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Where did you get the info I put in bold? The TMC? What is the actual makeup of the 100%? You make a suggestion in the way you wrote this. 

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39 minutes ago, E3D said:

Where did you get the info I put in bold? The TMC? What is the actual makeup of the 100%? You make a suggestion in the way you wrote this. 

KHOU 11 has info on their website. 

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21 minutes ago, E3D said:

Where did you get the info I put in bold? The TMC? What is the actual makeup of the 100%? You make a suggestion in the way you wrote this. 

Yes, representatives of the Texas Medical Center itself said on Wednesday that they expected to max out their regular ICU capacity by Thursday, and on Thursday they said that had indeed happened, but they indicated that they had "sustainable surge" ICU capacity that, based on current trends, would suffice for roughly another two weeks. Obviously the hope is that "current trends" don't continue. Today, TMC leadership said that they now expect to be able to manage the surge. I gather that one reason is that Texas has temporarily banned elective surgeries, which should free up some resources and staff. (As a reminder: "elective" surgeries include many serious, necessary procedures. It's just that they're not critically urgent and can be postponed.)

As for TMC's size, various media reports I saw described TMC, which I'd never even heard of before, as the largest medical complex in the country or in the world.

My understanding is that many hospitals normally have about 70% of their ICU beds filled. (Anecdotally, having spent about two weeks visiting my mother in an ICU ten years ago, that sounds about right to me.) So I've not been too concerned with the many, many news reports I've seen over the past few months about this or that hospital being at 80% or higher capacity. But when they start indicating they're nearing or have surpassed 100% capacity, that seems noteworthy.

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So much for assuming, I thought Howard Hughes Medical Institute would be in Houston as that was home of Hughes Tool. (Where Howie got his $$ to start.) Turns out HHMI is based in Chevy Chase MD. (Just rewatched “The Aviator” so that was on my mind)

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