ironlips Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 "...several successful vaccines by winter 2021." I am encouraged by these words, particularly in light of their informed source. Given that no vaccine (to my knowledge) is effective at a 100% rate, I'd be interested in what would be considered "success" by today's industry standard. Would we expect to see widespread inoculations by winter 2021, or will there be a more gradual roll out, I wonder. Beyond that, there are those who resist the entire concept of vaccination, despite the solid science regarding effectiveness and safety. Given the nature of this particular virus, how much danger will there be to the general population if a significant number refuse to be inoculated? I doubt there are clear answers at this point, and my own expertise is limited to how to arrange eighth notes on a page, and where to put a microphone. I have scant knowledge of medical research. I'm just looking for informed opinion on these matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimF-LowBari Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 19 minutes ago, ironlips said: "...several successful vaccines by winter 2021." I am encouraged by these words, particularly in light of their informed source. Given that no vaccine (to my knowledge) is effective at a 100% rate, I'd be interested in what would be considered "success" by today's industry standard. Would we expect to see widespread inoculations by winter 2021, or will there be a more gradual roll out, I wonder. Beyond that, there are those who resist the entire concept of vaccination, despite the solid science regarding effectiveness and safety. Given the nature of this particular virus, how much danger will there be to the general population if a significant number refuse to be inoculated? I doubt there are clear answers at this point, and my own expertise is limited to how to arrange eighth notes on a page, and where to put a microphone. I have scant knowledge of medical research. I'm just looking for informed opinion on these matters. And my expertise was in the IT field and is slowly(?) draining since retirement few months back. It is good to hear from an inside source and I mean no disrespect by my wait and see attitude. Didn’t think about anti-vaccination people but have thought about how another part of human nature may slow down recovery. Say a vaccine comes out that is 100% effective. I’m thinking there will be people who will be “nervous” about returning to pre-cv life until they know for sure cv will stay controlled. Just humans being humans and no way to control that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeRapp Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, ironlips said: "...several successful vaccines by winter 2021." I am encouraged by these words, particularly in light of their informed source. Given that no vaccine (to my knowledge) is effective at a 100% rate, I'd be interested in what would be considered "success" by today's industry standard. Would we expect to see widespread inoculations by winter 2021, or will there be a more gradual roll out, I wonder. Beyond that, there are those who resist the entire concept of vaccination, despite the solid science regarding effectiveness and safety. Given the nature of this particular virus, how much danger will there be to the general population if a significant number refuse to be inoculated? I doubt there are clear answers at this point, and my own expertise is limited to how to arrange eighth notes on a page, and where to put a microphone. I have scant knowledge of medical research. I'm just looking for informed opinion on these matters. We wiped out polio, smallpox and virtually every other serious disease with vaccines. All in times with infinitely less knowledge, computing power, communication and manufacturing ability then we have now. I personally don’t think it is rational to consider that several, maybe many, vaccines won’t work. The initial rollout will be to patient caregivers and those most at risk health wise. Likely over 60 and with comorbidities. The vast majority of deaths have been with those in that group. After that I don’t know. It depends on which and how many of the vaccines pass phase three. If the RNA studies prove effective, it seems likely you will see much faster manufacturing and distribution. Its important to understand that there are over 100 vaccines in clinical trials right now of all types of approaches. It seems extremely likely that many of those will be successful. I would guess that every country in the world will eventually have one or more successful vaccines, and it will be on the world health organization to decide how to go forward. I can’t really answer how much health risk will result from people not getting vaccinated. But, once you are vaccinated, you can’t get it again unless it significantly mutates—which experts believe is very unlikely. These viruses are not complex, and therefore are not very powerful or stable. That’s why the vast majority of them Peter out in a few months. Most are so fragile that temperatures above 72 degrees effectively kill them. This one is unique. It caught the whole world off guard. But we are making quick progress. Despite what you read every minute in social media, the vast majority of people who get this have little to no symptoms and no negative long term health effects. It seems to be less imposing than the common flu to eight out of ten. My wife said that almost everyone who comes to the hospital for a test, thinking they have it, are negative. Of those that test positive, nine of ten are sent home to recover and do fine. The one or two in ten can have severe health impact if they have other health issues, particularly respiratory issues. I have a neighbor who works for a healthcare company that serves nursing homes and prisons. He said they have a prison client here of 2500 inmates and a few got sick. They tested the everyone and discovered half of the population was positive—but only six had any symptoms. I hope this information helps. I am not a doctor, and I don’t pretend to speak for our company. But I have had to get pretty educated in this over the last six months, and I believe it is irrational to take the path of the alarmists in the media who frankly often dont have any education in the clinical trials world. Edited June 21, 2020 by MikeRapp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeD Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 40 minutes ago, JimF-LowBari said: And my expertise was in the IT field and is slowly(?) draining since retirement few months back. I had 38 years in IT. My company retired me in early 2018. My mind is by now totally drained of any IT knowledge I once had, I am happy to say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimF-LowBari Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, MikeD said: I had 38 years in IT. My company retired me in early 2018. My mind is by now totally drained of any IT knowledge I once had, I am happy to say! 2 years? It’s out of date anyway... 😈 So we started roughly same time. But I had to start computer room all 3 shifts every 4 weeks grunt work until I could get to the programming and etc agency. 😥 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N.E. Brigand Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 1 hour ago, ironlips said: Beyond that, there are those who resist the entire concept of vaccination, despite the solid science regarding effectiveness and safety. Given the nature of this particular virus, how much danger will there be to the general population if a significant number refuse to be inoculated? Wouldn't it have to be a very large number of people, something like 30% of the population, refusing the vaccination for that to make a difference? Perhaps, as in the movie Contagion, everybody who gets the vaccine gets a wristband with a bar code, and businesses can refuse entrance to those without one? The mind boggles at the legal implications of such a measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N.E. Brigand Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 2 hours ago, Continental said: Constantly Risking Absurdity Heh. Well, the one I have in mind won the championship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdaddy Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 1 hour ago, MikeRapp said: We wiped out polio, smallpox and virtually every other serious disease with vaccines. All in times with infinitely less knowledge, computing power, communication and manufacturing ability then we have now. I'd be curious to know the general acceptance of vaccinations back in the day. Less knowledge, communication, and manufacturing ability sure, but I assume there wasn't a significant proportion of the population saying "polio is like the flu." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeRapp Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 (edited) Regardless I’d be investing in Flo right now... Edited June 21, 2020 by MikeRapp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ironlips Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 3 hours ago, MikeRapp said: I work in clinical trials and in fact designed the world’s first Covid 19 patient registry. And my wife is the lead iv therapist for the largest hospital in Tennessee, and has personally cared for every single diagnosed patient at the hospital. Yes she wears a hazmat suit. I live it, for better and for worse. The reason we have a clinical trials process is because it takes trial and error and great expertise to successfully diagnose effective treatments. Most of the clinical trials do not make it to Phase 3 for a variety of reasons. What we are seeing right now with this vaccine is unprecedented in human history in so many ways that it is really inconceivable to me that the process won’t lead to several successful vaccines by winter 2021. I could be wrong. I am not a doctor. I have no inside knowledge, only knowledge that I have gained and must have to do my job. It is possible that this process could drag on into 2021 but I think it is extremely likely, based on the sheer volume and power of the companies involved, that we will have several ways to effectively combat this virus soon. Thank you, Mike. We all appreciate your perspective. Frank 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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