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Letter addressing the COVID-19 virus from renowned Aids expert Dr. Michael S. Saag, University of Alabama, Birmingham


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27 minutes ago, N.E. Brigand said:

"I do not understand how McDonalds can serve two billion hamburgers every year but when I order five million at the drive-thru it overwhelms the system."

It was the 500,000 without pickles that messed them up.

takeoff of old corps joke of wanting to take the bus to the drive in. 105 hamburgers, 2 no onion, 1 no pickle, 3 no ketchup and no pickle, etc, etc....

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What does he think he's going to do with them?

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Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former FDA commissioner (2017-19), this morning explained the importance of washing your hands:

"This is a sticky virus. We're learning that much more of the transmission probably happens from touching contaminated surfaces."

Even if you do wash your hands, you're probably not doing a 100% job of removing particles every time, which is why the social distancing measures are being put in place: they make it less likely that you'll touch the virus in the first place.

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March 19:

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March 22:

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(source)

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6 hours ago, N.E. Brigand said:

I wonder if we'll ever have an accurate death count.

"Last week alone, 400 people died in Bergamo and 12 neighboring towns — four times the number who died the same week the previous year, according to the Bergamo mayor’s office. Only 91 of those had tested positive for the virus."

Honestly - they will estimate it just as you presented it. Deaths in March 2020 minus Deaths in March 2019 = Covid deaths in March 2020. And so on. 

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5 hours ago, N.E. Brigand said:

"I feel like we’ve suddenly sprung a lot of log scale charts on an unsuspecting public, and readers may not be paying close attention to what these axes say."

For example, this chart is widely circulating on the internet, and its figures are accurate. But take a good look at the numbers on the right and left and notice that the distance between 20,000 and 50,000 is the same as the distance from 2,000 to 5,000 and the same as the distance from 200 to 500.

That's a perfectly normal way for scientists to present data like this, but your average reader might not quickly grasp, for instance, that on the last five days shown, in which China's numbers are flattening out, China still added more than 18,000 newly confirmed cases. 

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You are really in charts. Can you present one on a natural log scale?  I’m not sure what you’re trying to prove - that it’s bad?  That’s established. That we should shelter in place?  Done (except for the idiots).  That hospitals will shortly be overwhelmed?  Don’t need another chart for that. As the father of a nurse I am well aware. Do you have any PPE you can drive down and donate to your nearest hospital?  Anybody?  Help is needed. Spreading fear is not needed. 

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27 minutes ago, HockeyDad said:

You are really in charts. Can you present one on a natural log scale?  I’m not sure what you’re trying to prove - that it’s bad?  That’s established. That we should shelter in place?  Done (except for the idiots).  That hospitals will shortly be overwhelmed?  Don’t need another chart for that. As the father of a nurse I am well aware. Do you have any PPE you can drive down and donate to your nearest hospital?  Anybody?  Help is needed. Spreading fear is not needed. 

I'm sorry I wasn't clear. The point I was trying to make was just the one I quoted at the top: charts like this one, which I've seen cited in at least two dozen different places, can be misleading for people who aren't used to looking at graphs with log scales. Just because you are doesn't mean everyone is.

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