Letter addressing the COVID-19 virus from renowned Aids expert Dr. Michael S. Saag, University of Alabama, Birmingham

[TwoValves]

On 3/18/2020 at 6:25 PM, phd-student-TTU said:

Sorry, the head of the NIH lowered it to 1.5MM. 

Academia is so predictable. 

[HockeyDad]

16 hours ago, EricS said:

And to date the Feds have failed miserably at taking the proper actions on many points. 

If by feds you mean the CDC, no argument there. They really botched the testing part of this. But realize also that we don’t live in a dictatorship. Look to your 50 governors as a starting point. The ones taking no responsibility and wanting to blame everything on the feds are the ones you should be going after. I’m no fan of Cuomo, but he has stepped up to the plate and is acting like a leader should. 

Edited March 21, 2020 by HockeyDad

[HockeyDad]

On 3/18/2020 at 2:56 PM, phd-student-TTU said:

Point 1: based on our current trajectory we’re looking at 2.2 MM deaths. Social distancing may need to be extended for months if not a year. 
 

 

2.2 million is nothing more than taking the deaths in the 1918 pandemic and multiplying by 3, because the US population is now 3 times greater. You don’t need to be a PhD or MD to do that. Frankly, anything less than 2.2 million will be a victory. Maybe Israel will get that vaccine developed. Keep hoping. 

[JimF-LowBari]

23 minutes ago, HockeyDad said:

Look to your 50 governors as a starting point. The ones taking no responsibility and wanting to blame everything on the feds are the ones you should be going after. I’m no fan of Cuomo, but he has stepped up to the plate and is acting like a leader should. 
 

Agree... Wolfe of PA taking some shots with his non-essential shutdown orders but his main problem is lack of detail. Problem was declaring non-essential businesses should close but no clear definition on what is non-essential. Point is he took the helm and did something and working details as they hit

Edited March 21, 2020 by JimF-LowBari

[phd-student-TTU]

1 hour ago, HockeyDad said:

2.2 million is nothing more than taking the deaths in the 1918 pandemic and multiplying by 3, because the US population is now 3 times greater. You don’t need to be a PhD or MD to do that. Frankly, anything less than 2.2 million will be a victory. Maybe Israel will get that vaccine developed. Keep hoping. 

What the actual ####???

[HockeyDad]

52 minutes ago, phd-student-TTU said:

What the actual ####???

How are things better than 1918 right at this moment ?  Respirators?  Yes. That’s a positive difference.  Better personal protective clothing. Yes. But in short supply. Medicine/treatment/vaccine?  Not today, but fingers crossed big time on the anti-malarial. Look I’m. It trying to be a fear monger. Just looking at the numbers. I don’t want it to be 2.2 million or .22 million. Maybe the mortality rate will be lower than 1918 and it’s already looking that way. Maybe the infection rate will be lower than 1918 which was 1/3 of the population. I sure hope so. Maybe the mortality rate will turn out to be 1% not 3%. If so that would drop the deaths to 700,000. Wonderful. Maybe it will suddenly fade away like SARS did. Wonderful. About 2-3 million people die in America every year from all causes. 

Edited March 21, 2020 by HockeyDad

[HockeyDad]

1 hour ago, phd-student-TTU said:

What the actual ####???

I was thinking about your reply some more, and realized you have good point. What I should have said was that anything less than 2.2 million will be a victory IF this pandemic follows the same course as the 1918 pandemic. My hope is - there are so many variables and unknowns, that I hope this pandemic’s trajectory turns out to be an order of magnitude less. 

Edited March 21, 2020 by HockeyDad

[N.E. Brigand]

I wonder if we'll ever have an accurate death count.

"Last week alone, 400 people died in Bergamo and 12 neighboring towns — four times the number who died the same week the previous year, according to the Bergamo mayor’s office. Only 91 of those had tested positive for the virus."

[N.E. Brigand]

"I do not understand how McDonalds can serve two billion hamburgers every year but when I order five million at the drive-thru it overwhelms the system."

[N.E. Brigand]

"I feel like we’ve suddenly sprung a lot of log scale charts on an unsuspecting public, and readers may not be paying close attention to what these axes say."

For example, this chart is widely circulating on the internet, and its figures are accurate. But take a good look at the numbers on the right and left and notice that the distance between 20,000 and 50,000 is the same as the distance from 2,000 to 5,000 and the same as the distance from 200 to 500.

That's a perfectly normal way for scientists to present data like this, but your average reader might not quickly grasp, for instance, that on the last five days shown, in which China's numbers are flattening out, China still added more than 18,000 newly confirmed cases.