phd-student-TTU Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 13 hours ago, Bob P. said: Virologists aren't necessarily great in math nor statistics (a branch of math). I'll stick with qualified number crunchers who have nothing to gain. That’s literally part of their job. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoValves Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 8 hours ago, siletzspey said: China (and other countries) aggressively jumped on testing, self reporting, central tracking and isolation. Businesses were shut down by default, individuals self-reported daily temperatures to a central database, individuals were assigned red/yellow/green risk QR codes, and letting people roam and businesses re-open has been based on calculated need and risk. If and until the US is willing to manage things like China, citing China's numbers has little relevance to what the US might experience. If some cold and flu infected co-workers coming to work for the past 30 years is any indication, we're in for a reality check soon. We shall see. When this is over I can't wait for the "after action reports" to see who has to eat the largest pile of crow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoValves Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 1 hour ago, phd-student-TTU said: That’s literally part of their job. And there are so so many differing opinions, "study results," and predictions happening from all of them. Leaders in their field - especially when that field is research, are often wrong. Whicgh is why we do research in the first place. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hostrauser Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 On 3/19/2020 at 8:50 AM, TwoValves said: Just for some perspective. For all of the talk of percentages who have a mild case vs serious case, and widely conflicting predictions about the mortality rate of this virus, and how incredibly fast and loose it spreads etc. etc. Let's look at a number that no one ever mentions: How many people DON'T get the virus vs. what percentage DO. In China, where most will agree it was at its worst, there has been a total of around 81,000 cases in a country of 1.435 Billion people. That means only 0.000056446% of the population actually got the virus, and 80% of that had what are considered "mild" cases. Sure, if you trust that the Chinese government has been completely honest and forthcoming with all of their statistical reporting. And if you do, please let me show you this bridge I have for sale. Let's put it another way: overall global fatality rate for SARS-CoV-2 (all age groups) right now is around 3%. Assume 1% of America gets infected over the next six months. Roughly 350,000,000 people in America x 0.01 infection rate X 0.03 fatality rate = roughly 100,000 deaths. The problem with very large numbers like national populations is that even small percentages add up in a hurry. Anyway, Italy reported 624 deaths TODAY ALONE. The USA will be in that boat in 10-14 days. Back on topic, 0.000056446% is about the same percentage chance I would give for there to be any DCI season at all. Major League Baseball (a much bigger fish than DCI) isn't even considering starting THEIR season before July at this point, and it's extremely possible there will be no baseball season in 2020. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Ream Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 2 hours ago, phd-student-TTU said: Think of all the lawsuits for negligence. Plus, if shelter in place and crowd reduction measures are instituted, they’ll not have a choice. yeah...one kid gets sick and dies...oh God. game over 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob P. Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 6 hours ago, phd-student-TTU said: That’s literally part of their job. Then this one isn't very good at it. His premise is wrong, therefore the conclusion is faulty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cixelsyd Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 12 hours ago, phd-student-TTU said: Well, don’t take it seriously. See how that works out. I take this situation seriously. But I do not take that obviously flawed estimate seriously. Part of taking things seriously is to be serious about how statistics are used. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Windish Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 24 minutes ago, cixelsyd said: I take this situation seriously. But I do not take that obviously flawed estimate seriously. Part of taking things seriously is to be serious about how statistics are used. Yet another brilliant and logical post from cixelsyd! Agree! Distort just a few numerators/denominators . . . . until you reach whatever result preferred! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimF-LowBari Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 (edited) 37 minutes ago, Fred Windish said: Yet another brilliant and logical post from cixelsyd! Agree! Distort just a few numerators/denominators . . . . until you reach whatever result preferred! Sir... you are an expert in something or other... what do you think will happen.... ”I don’t have a ####### clue. Hope for the best and prepare for the worst.” once, just once want to hear this.... Edited March 21, 2020 by JimF-LowBari Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Windish Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 Jim - NONE of us has the definitive answer. The conditions are changing by the hour. What I think will happen is this . . . As more tests are done, the mortality rate will fall to a very low number, and panic should decrease.These full shut-down orders will be eased. A reasonable drug combination will be found in the next 3 weeks that will slow the spread of the virus, and decrease the severity of the effects on persons who get infected. I now believe DCI really has no choice but to cancel the 2020 season. The fear in people will linger on well into the summer. I don’t consider myself an expert, but do admit to being a perfectionist. That is, I not only straighten pictures on walls, but also obsess over details and research things many hours per day, every day of the year. I truly believe our nation will learn from this entire experience and be better prepared for the next crisis. Finally, no one should quickly accept the truth of any one person, particularly an anonymous message board poster! 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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