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On 3/19/2020 at 9:50 AM, TwoValves said:

Just for some perspective.

For all of the talk of percentages who have a mild case vs serious case, and widely conflicting predictions about the mortality rate of this virus, and how incredibly fast and loose it spreads etc. etc. Let's look at a number that no one ever mentions:  How many people DON'T get the virus vs. what percentage DO.

In China, where most will agree it was at its worst, there has been a total of around 81,000 cases in a country of 1.435 Billion people.  That means only 0.000056446% of the population actually got the virus, and 80% of that had what are considered "mild" cases.  

5 in 100,000 chance of contracting the virus. 

<1 in 100,000 chance of having a serious case

I haven't read through the entire thread so I don't know if anyone corrected the math in this statement. 81,000 divided by 1.435 billion is 0.000056446, but that is not a percent. The percent would be 0.0056446%. You are off by a factor of a 100. I agree the data is somewhat suspect, as reporting from both the China and the US is unreliable. If you want a direct comparison (with somewhat suspect data) to China here it is: We have about the same number of cases (26,000) as China did on day 19 after the first 100 cases were reported. The problem is the US has less than 25% of China's population, which means if we use China has a model we should of have 6500 cases on day 19. 


By the way there is a formula that is used to predict the spread of epidemics; y' = ky(M - y) where y = # of infected people, M = Maximum number of people who can be infected, and k is a constant that depends on circumstances. I do have issues with this formula, though. The first is accurately determining the number of infected people (y), as we know the data is suspect and probably under-reported The second issue I have is determining the number of people that can be infected. There does seem to be a segment of the population that appears to be resistant to COVID-19, children. Since there is not enough known about why this is, it would be difficult to determine how large of segment this actual is, so an accurate determination of M seems impossible. 

 

Edited by DAvery
clarity
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17 hours ago, DFA1970 said:

It's really hard to stay positive. Italy as of overnight had almost 1,000 deaths in over 24 hrs. Nature is (sarcasm) saying you f'd us up...now it's time to go to your room. 

And I would be very worried if I was in Spain or Germany right now. While behind in the number of days since the first 100 cases have been reported, the trajectory of the cases per capita in Germany (5 days behind Italy) and Spain (10 days behind Italy) is eerily similar. 

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4 hours ago, cixelsyd said:

Literacy.  Reason.  Critical thought. 

(There is more in my post-secondary education and experience, but none of that was required for this issue.  And besides, this is a discussion group, not an exercise in pulling rank on each other.  Opinions are welcome, and they can stand on their own merits.) 

Do you have an opinion of your own on this?

My opinion is that experts know more about infectious diseases than you. The narcissism required to think otherwise is astounding.

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18 minutes ago, dbc03 said:

My opinion is that experts know more about infectious diseases than you. The narcissism required to think otherwise is astounding.

My hunch is that he’d agree on both counts. 
 

But you avoided his question.

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3 hours ago, DAvery said:

And I would be very worried if I was in Spain or Germany right now. While behind in the number of days since the first 100 cases have been reported, the trajectory of the cases per capita in Germany (5 days behind Italy) and Spain (10 days behind Italy) is eerily similar. 

Same with USA (14 days behind Italy).

Buckle up. 

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2 hours ago, dbc03 said:

My opinion is I'll trust the experts over the guy calling the experts morons.

Good luck with that.

Quoting from the article in question:

 

I asked Collins whether that means we seem to be tracking with what happened in Italy.

“Right,” Collins told me. “If you look at the curve of new cases being diagnosed over the course of the last month, just look at the curve of what happened in Italy, and then look at our curve in the U.S., and you say if you go back eight days from today, they had about the same number of cases that we have today—that is, slightly over 2,000. And then if we follow that same track, then eight days from now [March 22], we would be having the same kind of incredible crisis that they are facing.” (The New York Times described the catastrophe befalling Italy: “The coronavirus epidemic raging through Italy has already left streets empty and shops shuttered as 60 million Italians are essentially under house arrest. There are the exhausted doctors and nurses toiling day and night to keep people alive. There are children hanging drawings of rainbows from their windows and families singing from their balconies. But the ultimate metric of pandemics and plagues is the bodies they leave behind. In Italy, with the oldest population in Europe, the toll has been heavy, with more than 2,100 deaths, the most outside of China. On Monday alone, more than 300 people died.”)

 

Oh, look - it has been eight days.  If we were tracking Italy as Collins and this article imply, we would have more than 2100 deaths right now.  If they are THAT FAR OFF in just eight days, how credible is that 1.5 million number?

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1 hour ago, cixelsyd said:

Good luck with that.

Quoting from the article in question:

 

I asked Collins whether that means we seem to be tracking with what happened in Italy.

“Right,” Collins told me. “If you look at the curve of new cases being diagnosed over the course of the last month, just look at the curve of what happened in Italy, and then look at our curve in the U.S., and you say if you go back eight days from today, they had about the same number of cases that we have today—that is, slightly over 2,000. And then if we follow that same track, then eight days from now [March 22], we would be having the same kind of incredible crisis that they are facing.” (The New York Times described the catastrophe befalling Italy: “The coronavirus epidemic raging through Italy has already left streets empty and shops shuttered as 60 million Italians are essentially under house arrest. There are the exhausted doctors and nurses toiling day and night to keep people alive. There are children hanging drawings of rainbows from their windows and families singing from their balconies. But the ultimate metric of pandemics and plagues is the bodies they leave behind. In Italy, with the oldest population in Europe, the toll has been heavy, with more than 2,100 deaths, the most outside of China. On Monday alone, more than 300 people died.”)

 

Oh, look - it has been eight days.  If we were tracking Italy as Collins and this article imply, we would have more than 2100 deaths right now.  If they are THAT FAR OFF in just eight days, how credible is that 1.5 million number?

You’re right, Jim

 

Edited by garfield
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14 minutes ago, garfield said:

Leave it to the Old Gray Mean Old Woman With Fewer and Fewer Teeth.

What a shame that people still think this is anything other than a tabloid rag.

 

Let’s try to keep this thread open... just say you disagree without the sniping....

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