Phantom56

Compressed summer tour DCI announcement

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16 minutes ago, Fred Windish said:

Jim - NONE of us has the definitive answer. The conditions are changing by the hour.

What I think will happen is this . . .

 

As more tests are done, the mortality rate will fall to a very low number, and panic should decrease.These full shut-down orders will be eased. 

A reasonable drug combination will be found in the next 3 weeks that will slow the spread of the virus, and decrease the severity of the effects on persons who get infected.

I now believe DCI really has no choice but to cancel the 2020 season. The fear in people will linger on well into the summer.

I don’t consider myself an expert, but do admit to being a perfectionist. That is, I not only straighten pictures on walls, but also obsess over details and research things many hours per day, every day of the year.

I truly believe our nation will learn from this entire experience and be better prepared for the next crisis.

 

Finally, no one should quickly accept the truth of any one person, particularly an anonymous message board poster!

Will disagree on one point Fred. Think (aka my guess) as more testing is done more cases will be counted (no surprise there). Lot of people will see big increase in that number and freak regardless of it is to be expected. Been following PA counts by county as a guide. 
 

But not really following mortality rate as more concerned of just being exposed and avoid catching it at this point.

The rest I can’t control so will wait and see

Edited by JimF-LowBari
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I  unfortunately think DCI for this year is history.   I just don't see this abating within time to be able to carry it through.   

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Now that this is the new prediction thread:

2020: no chance

2021: fall auditions will be video only, spring will be the first in-person camps in over a year.  Sadly, several Corps will be missing because both organizations and individuals won’t have sufficient finances. On the plus side, props and electronics will be reduced to keep costs down and help more Corps stay in the game. Overall production quality will be down, but shows will have a more old-school vibe, and everyone will be so happy to be at a show again (on the field and in the stands) that we’ll all proclaim it as the best season ever.  

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32 minutes ago, F15_22 said:

Now that this is the new prediction thread:

2020: no chance

2021: fall auditions will be video only, spring will be the first in-person camps in over a year.  Sadly, several Corps will be missing because both organizations and individuals won’t have sufficient finances. On the plus side, props and electronics will be reduced to keep costs down and help more Corps stay in the game. Overall production quality will be down, but shows will have a more old-school vibe, and everyone will be so happy to be at a show again (on the field and in the stands) that we’ll all proclaim it as the best season ever.  

i agree. The idea that even a short abbreviated  tour at this point seems like a miracle. This is not the movie Outbreak where Dustin Hoffman comes in on a chopper with a virus serum and saves the world. It's time to focus somewhat on 2021 and what damage this has done on corps and probably the effects on society. Even if this slows down in the summer months it could very well pick up again in the winter. And god forbid a new strain. And the world won't just recover in a year. The economic impact will be severe. 

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Just posted on DCA thread Concerning crowd size that money for entertainment will be tight and lot of people might not want to be in a crowded place in case the virus isn’t really gone. 1918 virus went underground for a bit, mutated and came back even worse

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1 hour ago, JimF-LowBari said:

Will disagree on one point Fred. Think (aka my guess) as more testing is done more cases will be counted (no surprise there). Lot of people will see big increase in that number and freak regardless of it is to be expected. Been following PA counts by county as a guide. 
 

But not really following mortality rate as more concerned of just being exposed and avoid catching it at this point.

The rest I can’t control so will wait and see

If the cases identified increases more rapidly than the deaths, the mortality rate will be reduced. 

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36 minutes ago, MikeD said:

If the cases identified increases more rapidly than the deaths, the mortality rate will be reduced. 

True but have known enough people with suppressed immunity systems and seeing percentage A is better than percentage B isn’t a comfort. Still a crap shoot and their odds are bad if they become exposed. IOW survival percentages are only important if you are in the survived group. And some people I know were not in that group.

To be clear thats why I don’t follow percentages

Edited by JimF-LowBari
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And just because you are tested and in the clean does not mean immunity. You are still subject to the virus. People who are positive and pull thru and clear of the virus are supposedly immune to this strain.  

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13 minutes ago, JimF-LowBari said:

True but have known enough people with suppressed immunity systems and seeing percentage A is better than percentage B isn’t a comfort. Still a crap shoot and their odds are bad if they become exposed. IOW survival percentages are only important if you are in the survived group. And some people I know were not in that group.

Oh, of course it is terrible. My only point is that Fred was correct about the mortality rate decreasing, from a mathematical perspective. If the denominator (total cases) increases at a higher rate than the numerator (deaths), the mortality rate goes down, which was Fred’s statement.

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2 minutes ago, MikeD said:

Oh, of course it is terrible. My only point is that Fred was correct about the mortality rate decreasing, from a mathematical perspective. If the denominator (total cases) increases at a higher rate than the numerator (deaths), the mortality rate goes down, which was Fred’s statement.

Ok wasn’t sure which one of us you were replying to. My response was sort of a blanket statement and not taking a shot at what you posted.

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