Mr. Acheson--it's time.

[N.E. Brigand]

Just now, garfield said:

In northern Italy they hosted plane loads of Wuhan workers in the garment district and kept shipping them all during December and January when China was trying to suppress the news getting out. The virus had a nearly two month unfettered head start.

We don’t have that in the US because we shut down travel from China almost immediately.  Even we didn’t know the Milan story until c-19 landed in NYC.

That, and many other factors that are dismissed for not meeting the narrative, blow a huge hole in both the shape of the US bell curve AND the presumption of the terminal affliction rate and death rate..

#flattenthecurve (bwahahaha!) will kill more poor people in the US than C-19 will kill brainless (and relatively rich) spring breakers.

I think I'm just going to quote your comment for posterity's sake.

Here's hoping you're right about this.

[JimF-LowBari]

6 minutes ago, skevinp said:

Do you understand that the idea you were ribbing was the ribbing of another idea?

I didn’t notice (sarcasm) in that post so hard to tell..... bored as I am I’m not going to read every word and try to guess intent.

Currently watching discussion on companies like automakers building medical equipment and missing pieces like distribution and how to make sure we don’t end up with too much of one item and not enough of another happens. Much more interesting with my background.

Edited March 24, 2020 by JimF-LowBari

[N.E. Brigand]

Just now, skevinp said:

No there isn’t.

 

[skevinp]

1 minute ago, Jurassic Lancer said:

Now I am missing Winking Lizard ribs.

Just cooked an entire rack of ribs yesterday.  My wife only had 3 but they were all gone by nightfall.  Filling, though.  Those ribs really stick to your ribs.

[skevinp]

3 minutes ago, JimF-LowBari said:

I didn’t notice (sarcasm) in that post so hard to tell..... bored as I am I’m not going to read every word and try to guess intent 

That sounds like a good reason not to assume it, at least in a way that insults others.  You don’t want to become like NEone else we know.  

[skevinp]

4 minutes ago, N.E. Brigand said:

 

Was just what I was thinking of.

🙂

[garfield]

42 minutes ago, JimF-LowBari said:

All this time I thought flatten the curve was not to overwhelm the system... ya know like NYC. But geez it’s so CDC can test.... guess we were corrected.  (Sarcasm)

Jim, read the data on SARS and the researchers’ comments at the end of it.  From a purely development of an anti-virus standpoint, SARS blew past too fast.  They didn’t have enough data. Yes, they were disappointed that it went so fast. There is nothing wrong with that!  These are humans with jobs and feelings attempting to find an antivirus to save lives, laudable goal, all.

You’re hearing more from the economists now because they are finally releasing their data on the economic impact.  I read them every day.  The damage to the wider US economy is potentially much greater than the impact of virus if the reality of the spread/death rate is significantly less than the doomsday predictions.

The economic data estimates are coming forth and some differing viewpoints are more vocal.

As someone here said, it’s a balance that’s sought.  Generally, the pendulum swings too far in both directions. 
 

Now that we’re all separated there’s some time to think and consider the relative impact.

[cixelsyd]

 

Quote

But no, I wouldn't say that about you. But some folks were, although I'm sure they didn't wish anyone ill. Just look back at posts on this subject from the last few days of February and first days of March, when there were only about 50 confirmed cases in the U.S., and you'll see a more than a few comments about how this whole situation was being "overhyped" and that two to three weeks hence (i.e., before now), those who then were suggesting that this epidemic could become very serious would look pretty foolish.

Hard to say whether those posts were "promoting complacency", or merely trying to take a reassuring tone to keep others from panicking.

23 minutes ago, N.E. Brigand said:

You're hard to read. You're a sharp critical thinker whose skepticism mostly seems to go in one direction on this topic.

We need to come together and beat this thing as a team.  That means putting political partisanship aside (as the guidelines say we should anyway), and getting on the same page by resolving the extremes of either complacency or panic.  Complacency seems to have dissipated on its own, but not panic, if the toilet paper shelves are any indication.  There are a number of factors fueling panic, and I cannot address them all - but deceptive statistics are one such area where I can push back in the interest of level-headedness.

If that is my "one direction"... guilty as accused.

[JimF-LowBari]

13 minutes ago, garfield said:

Jim, read the data on SARS and the researchers’ comments at the end of it.  From a purely development of an anti-virus standpoint, SARS blew past too fast.  They didn’t have enough data. Yes, they were disappointed that it went so fast. There is nothing wrong with that!  These are humans with jobs and feelings attempting to find an antivirus to save lives, laudable goal, all.

You’re hearing more from the economists now because they are finally releasing their data on the economic impact.  I read them every day.  The damage to the wider US economy is potentially much greater than the impact of virus if the reality of the spread/death rate is significantly less than the doomsday predictions.

The economic data estimates are coming forth and some differing viewpoints are more vocal.

As someone here said, it’s a balance that’s sought.  Generally, the pendulum swings too far in both directions. 
 

Now that we’re all separated there’s some time to think and consider the relative impact.

 

27 minutes ago, skevinp said:

That sounds like a good reason not to assume it, at least in a way that insults others.  You don’t want to become like NEone else we know.  

Have the quotes out of order but this does not sound like sarcasm or ribbing to me. I’ll just say I disagree and leave it at that. And that comes from personal experience dealing with the human suffering end. And seeing ERs at their packed worst before local hospital tripled their capacity. Believe me I was VERY nice in my post compared to how I felt when I read the comments.

Edited March 24, 2020 by JimF-LowBari

[garfield]

21 minutes ago, N.E. Brigand said:

I think I'm just going to quote your comment for posterity's sake.

Here's hoping you're right about this.

Are you suggesting I’d come back and delete it if proven wrong?  Wow, I misjudged you.

Or were you simply threatening to hold it over my head and eat crow, as if you’d have to?  Well, that proves it.