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Mr. Acheson--it's time.


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3 minutes ago, HockeyDad said:

(Entire country - I’m assuming that’s what you mean).

Sorry yes, that should have read "every state" not "entire state".

Ohio's stay-at-home order took effect less than 24 hours ago and lasts for two weeks. If every state did that, and did it now, or very soon, we'd be in a much better place. Might need to be three weeks just to be sure. (If not, we're in a place where states that locked down need to bar travel from states that didn't.) After that, we'd still need no mass gatherings (10 or more) and for restaurants to remain carry-out / delivery only, both for probably another month at least. Everywhere. That would take us to mid-May. Hopefully by then our testing capacity is maximized, and we're doing testing and tracing on a scale comparable to what South Korea has done: every time someone tests positive, state health authorities test every person that positive person was in contact with. And so on. If we do that, then we can increase the allowable group size slowly: say 25 in June, 50 in August, 100 in October, 200 in December. And you can't enter any building (except your home) if you have a fever. Thermometer checks at every door until fall 2021, when the vaccine is ready. We hope.

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4 minutes ago, N.E. Brigand said:

Sorry yes, that should have read "every state" not "entire state".

Ohio's stay-at-home order took effect less than 24 hours ago and lasts for two weeks. If every state did that, and did it now, or very soon, we'd be in a much better place. Might need to be three weeks just to be sure. (If not, we're in a place where states that locked down need to bar travel from states that didn't.) After that, we'd still need no mass gatherings (10 or more) and for restaurants to remain carry-out / delivery only, both for probably another month at least. Everywhere. That would take us to mid-May. Hopefully by then our testing capacity is maximized, and we're doing testing and tracing on a scale comparable to what South Korea has done: every time someone tests positive, state health authorities test every person that positive person was in contact with. And so on. If we do that, then we can increase the allowable group size slowly: say 25 in June, 50 in August, 100 in October, 200 in December. And you can't enter any building (except your home) if you have a fever. Thermometer checks at every door until fall 2021, when the vaccine is ready. We hope.

I'm sorry, but it's just impossible for you to conclude that we would be better off if every state adopted Ohio's position.

First, reading the Ohio order shows that LOTS of businesses are exempt (like mine) so the efficacy of the order is reduced.  Second, "better off" HAS TO include the economic impact of shutting down parts of the country unnecessarily based on current data.

Add in the the additional Federal efforts just since Ohio's order (last Friday it was issued; Sunday's codicil was just the memorialization of the order from Friday), and the basic premise of even last week's presumptions has been changed.

Edited by garfield
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42 minutes ago, N.E. Brigand said:

Just for you, a new chart from the Financial Times that includes the hardest hit part of China:

ET52w3BXgAAOTVP?format=jpg&name=large

So much for our agreement to be positive.  Again I ask, what’s your point?  Are you happy about all this?  I’m finding it hard to conclude otherwise. 

Edited by HockeyDad
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35 minutes ago, N.E. Brigand said:

Sorry yes, that should have read "every state" not "entire state".

Ohio's stay-at-home order took effect less than 24 hours ago and lasts for two weeks. If every state did that, and did it now, or very soon, we'd be in a much better place. Might need to be three weeks just to be sure. (If not, we're in a place where states that locked down need to bar travel from states that didn't.) After that, we'd still need no mass gatherings (10 or more) and for restaurants to remain carry-out / delivery only, both for probably another month at least. Everywhere. That would take us to mid-May. Hopefully by then our testing capacity is maximized, and we're doing testing and tracing on a scale comparable to what South Korea has done: every time someone tests positive, state health authorities test every person that positive person was in contact with. And so on. If we do that, then we can increase the allowable group size slowly: say 25 in June, 50 in August, 100 in October, 200 in December. And you can't enter any building (except your home) if you have a fever. Thermometer checks at every door until fall 2021, when the vaccine is ready. We hope.

I would not at all be surprised if that’s how this goes. I don’t think many would disagree. Now, can you please stop posting the body count?

Edited by HockeyDad
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Back to the OP, based on reports on other social media sites, it appears likely the cancellation of the season is approaching.  I sure don’t blame DCI - this is obviously much bigger than our favorite AAU marching bands. 

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40 minutes ago, N.E. Brigand said:

That would take us to mid-May. Hopefully by then our testing capacity is maximized, and we're doing testing and tracing on a scale comparable to what South Korea has done:

already exceeding & speeding up extremely quickly - 100,000 per day next week and 300,000 per day in two weeks

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/489274-birx-us-has-done-more-testing-in-8-days-than-south-korea-in-8-weeks

 

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Just now, MikeN said:

Back to the OP, based on reports on other social media sites, it appears likely the cancellation of the season is approaching.  I sure don’t blame DCI - this is obviously much bigger than our favorite AAU marching bands. 

yes - announcement coming Thursday, many corps have been pressuring & several are having full corps online meetings tomorrow night to tell their members prior to the news

what a waste and buy American 

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30 minutes ago, George Dixon said:

already exceeding & speeding up extremely quickly - 100,000 per day next week and 300,000 per day in two weeks

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/489274-birx-us-has-done-more-testing-in-8-days-than-south-korea-in-8-weeks

 

The heck you say. That certainly doesn’t fit the all-negative all the time narrative. 

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Please, Alumni, Members, Parents, Staff, & Volunteers, should DCI make the call people are discussion, please take care of each other.  I can tell you from personal experience that my member is already feeling devastated by the potential news.  This is an activity that for so many is like an extended family.  It is an activity that provides so much more than just 'something to do over the summer' and means so much more than just a score.  While we may banter over which corps is better, what judge made an error, & what show design nailed it, we are all part of this incredible family and it is imperative we are there for these each other.  It's a hurt I can't take away...and it sucks.

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20 minutes ago, HockeyDad said:

So much for our agreement to be positive.  Again I ask, what’s your point?  Are you happy about all this?  I’m finding it hard to conclude otherwise. 

I'm not happy at all. As I've said many times before: I want to be wrong about all this.

Should I be pretending that the death toll is less?

An acquaintance of mine once described how he tried to make Boccaccio's Decameron real for his medieval literature students.

He asked them all to write down the names of ten friends or relatives in random order on a piece of paper.

Then he told them to cross off the first name, and the fourth name, and the fifth name, and the eighth name.

Then he said: Imagine that those four people you love have all just died of a horrible disease. In that case, the Black Plague.

That's what Florence went through in 1348. That's why the young people have fled to the countryside and are holed up telling each other 100 stories over two weeks.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Anyway, cIxelsyd had specifically called out a previous chart I posted for omitting China, so when I saw this new one, from a reputable source, I shared it.

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