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Mr. Acheson--it's time.


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47 minutes ago, garfield said:

I'm sorry, but it's just impossible for you to conclude that we would be better off if every state adopted Ohio's position.

First, reading the Ohio order shows that LOTS of businesses are exempt (like mine) so the efficacy of the order is reduced.  Second, "better off" HAS TO include the economic impact of shutting down parts of the country unnecessarily based on current data.

Add in the the additional Federal efforts just since Ohio's order (last Friday it was issued; Sunday's codicil was just the memorialization of the order from Friday), and the basic premise of even last week's presumptions has been changed.

Lots of businesses are exempt, but as Hockey Dad said, we're not China, and unlikely to be able to take the most draconian steps they took.

(If we needs must pick nits on the timing, I'll note that the order was signed Sunday afternoon and took effect at 11:59 p.m. Monday night. Thus today, Tuesday, is day one. It was treated as news on Sunday; I can't find anything about it on Friday. There is nothing on DeWine's Twitter feed before Sunday about the Stay at Home order -- and he (i.e., his staff) posts *a lot* there. What he announced on Friday was that he would be closing senior centers on Monday. On Thursday, he had said that more people needed to stay home, but he wasn't making that mandatory yet.)

What we need to do is buy time for testing to be omnipresent. Then we can start opening up again.

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20 minutes ago, George Dixon said:

already exceeding & speeding up extremely quickly - 100,000 per day next week and 300,000 per day in two weeks

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/489274-birx-us-has-done-more-testing-in-8-days-than-south-korea-in-8-weeks

Good!

(We're nearly seven times larger than South Korea, so even with this news, we have a ways to go yet. But we'll get there.)

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9 minutes ago, HockeyDad said:

The heck you say. That certainly doesn’t fit the all-negative all the time narrative. 

we are also working on an "instant" test similar to a pregnancy test that turns color for home use - but that's like 45 days out, so summer

I really believe by microtargeting the tracking and mitigation efforts we can control this out of the country MUCH faster than expended - but boy is the damage being done in the meantime... Let's face it, this blows. The folks in charge of this are by far the best in the world. 

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1 minute ago, N.E. Brigand said:

Good!

(We're nearly seven times larger than South Korea, so even with this news, we have a ways to go yet. But we'll get there.)

South Korea had two advantages - 1. they used the WHO test (which is inferior but was ready sooner) while we followed our policy of a CDC test (which had those flaws and led to a huge delay) AND they had the recent experience from their prior outbreak. Our set up (prior to now) just didn't have the ramp up built in and was so over regulated. Glad we are working to improve

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Just now, cixelsyd said:

Oh, look - another scary graph.  Can you put us in red next time?  That makes it scarier.

You don't have to treat it as scary. You could treat it as a sign of where improvement is needed.

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39 minutes ago, George Dixon said:

South Korea had two advantages - 1. they used the WHO test (which is inferior but was ready sooner) while we followed our policy of a CDC test (which had those flaws and led to a huge delay) AND they had the recent experience from their prior outbreak. Our set up (prior to now) just didn't have the ramp up built in and was so over regulated. Glad we are working to improve

They also did multiple tests on people that were around those with the virus. Their per capita number of cases per million was 147 at 20 days. The US per capita at 20 days (we are at day 21) is 100 cases per million. South Korea and China both seemed to level off at day 27. BY the way China's 20 day per capita was 22 cases per million and they are currently at day 35 and at 54 cases per million. A week from now we will see if we have the same results. My guess is no. Both S Korea and China took more drastic measures and sooner than we did. 

Here is a copy of a graph I have making or the past week. 

DUELnh0.jpg

Edited by DAvery
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26 minutes ago, DAvery said:

They also did multiple tests on people that were around those with the virus. Their per capita number of cases per million was 147 at 20 days. The US per capita at 20 days (we are at day 21) is 100 cases per million. South Korea and China both seemed to level off at day 27. BY the way China's 20 day per capita was 22 cases per million and they are currently at day 35 and at 54 cases per million. A week from now we will see if we have the same results. My guess is no. Both S Korea and China took more drastic measures and sooner than we did. 

Here is a copy of a graph I have making or the past week. 

DUELnh0.jpg

I can’t believe anyone believes China’s data 

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Everyone calm down.  This is going to be decided by the voting membership.  Those directors are spending hours and hours per day on this.  Let's not try to be the first one to be right on this topic.  Better to be judicious and protect the performers from the fallout of what might be inevitable.  We (adults) need to behave as adults and support long term goals.  Let the directors and DCI steer this responsibly.

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12 minutes ago, George Dixon said:

I can’t believe anyone believes China’s data 

True dat.

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