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35 minutes ago, hostrauser said:

Global pandemics (for diseases without vaccines) in the 20th Century lasted 12-18 months, and that is what they are predicting for SARS-CoV-2. The first hospitalizations in Wuhan were in December 2019, so this is month 4. If we're lucky, this will all be over by the start of 2021. But it could easily last until mid-2021.

I'm afraid not a single infectious disease expert on the planet shares your optimism.

From the link you posted:

Realistically, that could be 12 to 18 months away.

<ad snip>

"In the meantime, the modelling shows that to slow the spread and save lives, multiple measures are necessary, said ABC health broadcaster Norman Swan on Coronacast.

"What they showed was ... if you want to suppress the virus to very low levels, you've got to do a lot," Dr Swan said.

"You've got to do quarantine, you've got to do social distancing and indeed, they say, you've got to shut schools and universities.

"The problem is, once you put your foot on the brake you have no idea when you can take it off, and it might be as long as 18 months."

The modelling is based on numbers for the UK and the US, and while the figures are different to those in Australia, the time frame for a vaccine remains the same."

 

And, haven't we done all of these things?  Doesn't that change the contentions of the article and the timeline the author proposes?

But, what's most bothersome about this line is that the story relies on the qualifications and experience of the guy who puts together the ABC News podcast CoronaCast for its validity.

I hope you can appreciate my cynicism.

 

 

 

Edited by garfield

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19 minutes ago, TRacer said:

Thanks, I will. 🤙

My degree of participation extends to the 70s in one form or another (performer, parent, instructor, etc.) and I have information pipelines to the Januals as well. There’s also a 50% chance we have the same dominant hand. This “moral high ground post” is probably the “adult” post that was merited a few pages back. 

Maybe, but it's unlikely I would have engaged you had it been!

No, I like the one I wrote.

We've probably rubbed shoulders at one point or another since the early '70's.  Lord knows I've done a lot of things in this activity.

 

Edited by garfield

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18 minutes ago, boxingfred said:

If we can wait until the rain stops in Allentown, We can weather this storm.

Hey Freddie, you guys want to buy all of my finals tickets?

I have 10, you know where.

:tounge2:

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1 hour ago, garfield said:

(emphasis mine)

I don't think many people realize that this is true.  

Everyone I talk to has been aware of  how fragile the activity is. A lot of us realized this even before covid-19 hit. How much more  fragile is it now? A lot more.

Edited by Jurassic Lancer
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1 hour ago, garfield said:

And, haven't we done all of these things?  Doesn't that change the contentions of the article and the timeline the author proposes?

But, what's most bothersome about this line is that the story relies on the qualifications and experience of the guy who puts together the ABC News podcast CoronaCast for its validity.

I hope you can appreciate my cynicism.

*sigh*

1. Yes, for the most part, but about two weeks later than we should have. No, it doesn't. Those were the minimum actions needed to bring the duration down to ~12 months.

2. You understand that this is the Down Under ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) and not the Stars and Stripes ABC (American Broadcasting Company), right?

3. No, I don't. It's baseless. But I see now that I could quote dozens of doctors from dozens of countries and you'd still be unreasonably skeptical. So all I can do is just hope that you stay safe and wash your hands frequently.

I myself am not a medical expert. But my wife's last job was in "small pharma" at a pharmaceutical research company, and as a result we personally know several research physicians including two infectious disease specialists. I am merely trying to parrot what they are saying. I have yet to come across a bona fide expert on infectious diseases that thinks this will go away any time soon. Most of them are of the opinion that the most likely long-term outcome of all of this is for SARS-CoV-2 to become a seasonal disease just like influenza, and that once we DO have a vaccine we will need to get it every year (like influenza). And that even after this initial pandemic coronavirus has the potential to still kill 20,000-30,000 Americans a year, just like influenza.

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3 hours ago, JimF-LowBari said:

My understanding is the Comfort and the west coast ship are in port. My guess (based on dealing with ship IT problems) is if they were docked then they were not fully supplied, especially with perishable items like blood. And no idea how medical equipment needs to be stowed if not to be used for a while. And the crew (including medical staff) would not be cooling their heels on ship if ship is docked. Any medical staff are probably working elsewhere at the present but doesn’t look like Norfolk area has been hit too bad. No idea how long it takes to get the supplies and load but I heard few weeks some places

Yep; former student in US Navy said they were upgrading their Commodore 64 system.  I thought it was funny that he would even know about that model. 

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Not having a 2020 tour could be a fatal blow to the activity?  Really?  So. Huh. How can I say this delicately. So, a possibility to rebuild this thing from the ground floor?  A possibility to revisit the use of the bells, whistles and toys employed today?  Hmmmm....

Edited by HockeyDad

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3 minutes ago, HockeyDad said:

Not having a 2020 tour could be a fatal blow to the activity?  Really?  So. Huh. How can I say this delicately. So, a possibility to rebuild this thing from the ground floor?  A possibility to revisit the use of the bells, whistles and toys employed today?  Hmmmm....

But what if most of the FANS of drum corps have come to really like the bells, whistles and toys?  Any rebuilding has to be based on keeping and building the fan base.  Going backwards is not gonna do it.  (IMHO)

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14 hours ago, garfield said:

But you don't have to sound so disappointed about it!

:whistle:

The drum corps will need to do everything they can to increase revenue in any way this season.  Shutting things down and sending everyone home does little to help that.

 

Sorry... I'm not disappointed about agreeing with you! It's the subject matter. 🙂  We cool, bruh.  lol

And yes, you're correct.  While it's prudent for DCI to hang it up for the season, corps must be creative in how they ensure their future survival.  

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