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If Current DCI Model Gets Cut Back...


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1 hour ago, N.E. Brigand said:

Life won't be back to normal until 2022.

That doesn't mean it will be the way it is now for two years, but until there's a vaccine --fall 2021 at the earliest, by most estimates-- it will not be safe to gather in large groups.

However, it can be made much safer than it is with robust regular testing and quick containment efforts.

That means probably 1 million Americans being tested every day. (We're currently doing about 10% of that.) Not just people who are sick, but random people everywhere.

And you get your temperature taken every time you try to enter a building, and if it shows you have a fever, you don't go in (unless it's your home).

And if you test positive, your state government isolates you in a quarantine facility until you test negative (treating you if you develop symptoms), and anyone you've had contact with in the past two weeks gets put in a hotel room until two weeks have passed since they interacted with you.

The epidemiologists probably do the contact tracing via some sort of app on your phone that gives them a good record of every other phone (and its owner) you've been close to. It's going to be weird and seriously intrusive. But it's the only possible alternative to staying locked down until there's a vaccine. If these steps don't happen, we get New York levels of infection all over again, but in lots of places.

(Read about what's going to be necessary here: Getting Down to Planning the Next Year and the Interim New Normal.)

A minor quirk: you'll be expected to wear a mask every time you're in a crowded place. (Also handshaking likely is going to become a thing of the past.)

And every time there's a flare-up in a community, that area goes back into lock-down mode for a few weeks. But hopefully the steps above keep that to a minimum.

One other thing that would help: antiviral and therapeutic drugs.

Even with all that happening, probably 20% of the population is going to be nervous and will stay home as much as possible.

Plus obviously this means the economy continues to be shaky.

One positive from this: the number of people contracting all infectious diseases, including colds and flus, will drop.

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So assuming we can vastly increase our testing capacity and put the other necessary procedures in place:

--People aren't going to have as much money to spend on entertainment. And a number of them won't want to be in crowds. This will apply to members, too (the specific subject you're inquiring about).

--Some event locations might suddenly be under shelter-in-place orders in the middle of DCI's tour, meaning shows are cancelled. Imagine if it happens in Indianapolis in August.

--An entire corps might suddenly be quarantined for two weeks when one of their members falls ill.

For these and other reasons, it's likely some corps will fold.

What about the antibody test that’s being developed?

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13 minutes ago, Terri Schehr said:

What about the antibody test that’s being developed?

Yes, that will help too.

it will probably reveal that less fewer than 5% of Americans have been infected, though, which means the other 95% are still at risk.

Edited by N.E. Brigand
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25 minutes ago, JimF-LowBari said:

Asking people what they see for 2021 and NEB gave it so don’t see a problem. 
 

Only thing I’m not sure of is if taking temperature is foolproof. Coronavirus  can be asymptomatic so can one have it and not have a temperature?

Don't assume my comment was aimed at you. That's how arguments start. Lol. 

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12 minutes ago, N.E. Brigand said:

Yes, that will help too.

it will probably reveal that less fewer than 5% of Americans have been infected, though, which means the other 95% are still at risk.

That’s my worry. At 62 taking great care I see 63. So I go out after the worst part is over but not protected against it I can get it. Only good thing might be is medical facilities might not be swamped.

Edited by JimF-LowBari
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1 minute ago, Incognito365 said:

Don't assume my comment was aimed at you. That's how arguments start. Lol. 

I think it was directed at NE Brigand who I abbreviated as NEB in my post

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47 minutes ago, N.E. Brigand said:

Yes, that will help too.

it will probably reveal that less fewer than 5% of Americans have been infected, though, which means the other 95% are still at risk.

Actually, I have a feeling that the test will show that many more Americans have been infected than came down with symptoms / signs of Covid-19.  Studies will show whether my hunch is correct.

Also, remember that >98% of individuals currently diagnosed survive the infection.

Edited by IllianaLancerContra
further clarification and pontificating
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5 hours ago, JimF-LowBari said:

Don’t forget possibly less facilities for corps to house, practice and have show sites. In the past I’ve said about school boards less likely to allow facilities to be used by “outsiders”. Now there would be the fear (right or wrong) of diseases from other areas being brought in the facilities.

As I’ve shared before, renting out school facilities can be a pain and the funds received is are often not worth the work involved. Most schools only do so if they have to do so. I know of some communities where the public schools do not get to keep the funds. The town or city owns the buildings and they get the funds. An economic downturn could be a game changer if a school or municipality needs all the money it can get. Regarding the fear of germs. If we’re still worried about outsiders bringing germs next year, we won’t have a 2021 season either. 

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2 hours ago, N.E. Brigand said:

 (Also handshaking likely is going to become a thing of the past.) 

As long as people wash their hands before touching themselves, others, etc., this should not be a problem one would think.  I know this C19 virus has me washing more often.  If many of us had been washing our hands more often in the past, maybe we would not have had other health issues.

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57 minutes ago, IllianaLancerContra said:

Actually, I have a feeling that the test will show that many more Americans have been infected than came down with symptoms / signs of Covid-19.  Studies will show whether my hunch is correct.

Also, remember that >98% of individuals currently diagnosed survive the infection.

I hope you’re right. 

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