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JimF-LowBari

If Current DCI Model Gets Cut Back...

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3 minutes ago, Guitar1974 said:

Fair enough.  My point about the case count is that we've made decisions that are going to have long lasting ramifications based on very shaky data.  I hope the infection fatality rate is extremely low, that'd be the best scenario.  I just hope the data shows this soon so we can get back to life.  

Ok I get your point better now and wasn’t trying to point the finger at you. My thought is everyone from top on down needs to be flexible as info comes out. Hopefully If things are better then expected start opening things up earlier then expected. If some places ready and some not then act according to conditions. 

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Mods can delete this one but just saw a talking head on a cable news network blast the medical profession for “overestimating” number of cases.  He didn’t say it out loud but jist of rant was don’t trust the medical people on this..... 

Trying to get back on track but all I can think of is DCI better use common sense and listen to the careful side to be safe as possible

Edited by JimF-LowBari
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3 minutes ago, JimF-LowBari said:

Mods can delete this one but just saw a talking head on a cable “news” show blast the medical profession for “overestimating” number of cases.  He didn’t say it out loud but jist of rant was don’t trust the medical people on this..... 

Trying to get back on track but all I can think of is DCI better use common sense and listen to the careful side to be safe as possible

Cable news or Cable opinion...Quite different, although many confuse them...sad

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27 minutes ago, GUARDLING said:

Cable news or Cable opinion...Quite different, although many confuse them...sad

My bad... Thanks for the catch.... I changed it to show it was a “News network” and not “news show”. 
 

Yeah big difference and reason why I don’t watch these networks during prime time as nothing but ratings bait imo “I’m mad as hell and you should be too” lol

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so DCI....

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12 hours ago, year1buick said:

Those are still guesses—in absence of actual data. Hunches. [Please correct me if I’m wrong on this, but I haven’t seen anyone link an actual study, with tangible data, to statements like these. I’m not saying there aren’t, I just don’t recall them being backed up. From either end of the viewpoint spectrum.] You say we don’t have all the facts, but then state that, when we do... it’s going to be this. Without all the facts, how do you know? I honestly don’t understand.
 

What you call an overreaction, some call preventing disaster. Who’s right? I don’t know. But my hunch is it’s probably somewhere in between. We want to have certainty; to break things down into binary equations: good/bad, safe/overreacting, in danger/in the clear, us/them. But life doesn’t work that way. It’s messy, often without clear cut yes/no answers. 
 

I honestly have no idea what the landscape of this country is going to look like in twelve months. I hope for better, including having a DCI season for all of us to enjoy. But I think there are going to be ramifications and changes. The question is, how significant? I think it’s an interesting question and am still curious as to what others here think about it.

 

Most of what I want to say is already said in this post.

One detail... last night, I saw something on TV somewhere reporting on a study performed on thousands of cases.  No matter which demographic - young adults, middle-aged, elderly - over 90% of deaths had a pre-existing medical condition from the "high-risk" list.  On that point, I think we have advanced beyond guesswork.

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12 hours ago, JimF-LowBari said:

To me there are so many unknowns and never seen befores that it makes sense that projections will be off and all over the place. What bothers me is seeing people upset that we might have fewer cases/deaths than before like people making the projections were clueless.

Sad.  But that is the predictable consequence of unfounded* projections.

To clarify, not all projections were unfounded.  But there were a few instances of overreach.  For example, when the banner headline is a projection of number of deaths "if we do nothing", published after we have already taken containment measures.  This is one of two primary reasons why I posted about such behavior here.  Besides the panic these worse-than-worst-case scenarios generate, they also ruin the credibility of their sources, and chip away at the credibility of the wider community of experts upon whom we must rely for such projections.

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Really hard to make projections when some areas are doing in place a lot better than others.

Yes.  Also requires differing approaches to recovery in different locales.  And that will keep DCI and their corps on their toes constantly as they plan for the future.  Plan B, plan C... they will need the whole alphabet before this is done.

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And I don’t get the freak out about all cases not counted because people didn’t realize they had it or didn’t die in a hospital to be checked.

Not sure which "freak out" you are referring to, so here are the top three.

1.  First issue with uncounted cases is that it inflates the apparent mortality rate of the virus.  If* decisions are made on that basis, they would tend to be overreactive.

2.  Both the containment and "slow the spread" phases of our efforts are harder to execute when we are not identifying who has the virus.

3.  As you have pointed out, there is much we do not know yet about this virus.  The biggest unknown is the overwhelming majority of people who have not been tested.  How many of them have it?  How many had it, and dealt with it?  There is so much that would tell us about where it is, how it spreads, how well our immune systems fight it, etc.  Moving forward, the more we learn, the safer we will be as we emerge from lockdown mode.

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49 minutes ago, cixelsyd said:

Most of what I want to say is already said in this post.

One detail... last night, I saw something on TV somewhere reporting on a study performed on thousands of cases.  No matter which demographic - young adults, middle-aged, elderly - over 90% of deaths had a pre-existing medical condition from the "high-risk" list.  On that point, I think we have advanced beyond guesswork.

 But they do a lousy job of defining what they mean by pre-existing medical condition. If I have hypertension well controlled by medication, do I have a pre-existing medical condition?  That describes many millions of Americans yet I’ve not seen an answer. Seems like a very basic question too. DCI. Haircuts. 

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I’ve watched a few Message Boards washed away for good because relevant topics were continually sent adrift. Please, not here!

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