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Coronavirus predictions, projections, models, facts and opinions.


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4 hours ago, skevinp said:

I hope so too.  It is sadly a common political tactic to take a tiny group of outliers and use them to make generalizations about much larger groups of people in order to attack or discredit them.  I would hope that doesn’t happen on DCP.  

They are discrediting themselves by protesting at all (mostly because they are forming large groups, not necessarily the content of the protest). No politics necessary. Stupidity has no boundaries. 

Edited by Cappybara
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I think the most alarming coronavirus news to me so far is the situation in South Korea where numerous people have gotten coronavirus, recovered, start exhibiting symptoms again, get tested, and find out that they’re positive, AGAIN. 

Is the virus mutating? Is it finding a way to stay dormant while the body fights back and then pops back up once the immune response has cooled down? I hope researchers find answers to that soon
 

If it is mutating, the optimism surrounding the idea of herd immunity will likely be dashed, as opening back up and allowing everyone to “develop immunity” would likely just accelerate the mutation process because of the increased opportunity for replication-derived mutations. 
 

Anyone watch World War Z recently? Silver lining is, we’re not being turned into zombies! Though I’d imagine sitting in front of a glowing screen all day does have a similar effect :lle:

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1 hour ago, Cappybara said:

I think the most alarming coronavirus news to me so far is the situation in South Korea where numerous people have gotten coronavirus, recovered, start exhibiting symptoms again, get tested, and find out that they’re positive, AGAIN. 

Is the virus mutating? Is it finding a way to stay dormant while the body fights back and then pops back up once the immune response has cooled down? I hope researchers find answers to that soon
 

If it is mutating, the optimism surrounding the idea of herd immunity will likely be dashed, as opening back up and allowing everyone to “develop immunity” would likely just accelerate the mutation process because of the increased opportunity for replication-derived mutations. 
 

Anyone watch World War Z recently? Silver lining is, we’re not being turned into zombies! Though I’d imagine sitting in front of a glowing screen all day does have a similar effect :lle:

Or this is reflective of the limitations of the testing.     It's a coronavirus --  not some alien invasion.  

Korea is an interesting case.  They were slammed by SARS but we (the western world) mostly ignored their experience.  In fact their society responded pretty much like the US is responding to Covid-19.  The reason they are so well prepared today is that they already have been through what we're experiencing. But  I find the hysteria of Covid-19 as disturbing as the protests. 

While I do think the stay-home and social-isolation are appropriate responses to this pandemic (just ask anyone from Fort Detrick),  there ARE serious violations of constitutional rights being imposed on American citizens.  Fortunately most seem to agree that LIFE is a more important right than Liberty and Pursuit of Happiness (which are somewhat difficult to enjoy if you're no longer alive). 

Edited by karuna
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2 hours ago, Cappybara said:

They are discrediting themselves by protesting at all (mostly because they are forming large groups, not necessarily the content of the protest). No politics necessary. Stupidity has no boundaries. 

I meant a larger segment of the population than the relatively small groups of unsafely close in-person protestors.  
 

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2 hours ago, Cappybara said:

I think the most alarming coronavirus news to me so far is the situation in South Korea where numerous people have gotten coronavirus, recovered, start exhibiting symptoms again, get tested, and find out that they’re positive, AGAIN. 

Is the virus mutating? Is it finding a way to stay dormant while the body fights back and then pops back up once the immune response has cooled down? I hope researchers find answers to that soon
 

If it is mutating, the optimism surrounding the idea of herd immunity will likely be dashed, as opening back up and allowing everyone to “develop immunity” would likely just accelerate the mutation process because of the increased opportunity for replication-derived mutations. 
 

Anyone watch World War Z recently? Silver lining is, we’re not being turned into zombies! Though I’d imagine sitting in front of a glowing screen all day does have a similar effect :lle:

Is it possible the earlier tests were false negatives and they hadn’t really recovered to begin with?

If it is a mutation, let us hope the new strain will be less deadly, if that is a possibility.  

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MY VERSION OF AN EFFECTIVE METHOD TO COMBAT COVID-19 & RETURN TO A NEW VERSION OF OUR LIFESTYLE:

1)  Continue the "Shelter-in-Place" orders until there's enough testing materials & PPE for the mass population of the US

2)  Test most of the US population for diagnosis purposes & tracing purposes to control the virus as we return to work, school, etc

3)  Open regional areas of the US as the curve diminishes to a level sustainable for our hospitals to effectively treat patients      

4)  Expedite the vaccine process for the original strain & research the new mutations for an applicable variant of the vaccine

5)  Make lifestyle adaptations to continue our daily lives that include the current CDC guidelines for social distancing, hygiene, mask, etc

6)  Continue effective monetary stimulus that goes to the working population most effected; not forgivable "loans" to corporations that can survive  

Of course, there's always the chance that I don't know what the hell I'm talking about.  But it sounds like common sense to me.  

Edited by keystone3ply
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9 minutes ago, keystone3ply said:

MY VERSION OF AN EFFECTIVE METHOD TO COMBAT COVID-19 & RETURN TO A NEW VERSION OF OUR LIFESTYLE:

1)  Continue the "Shelter-in-Place" orders until there's enough testing materials & PPE for the mass population of the US

2)  Test most of the US population for diagnosis purposes & tracing to control the virus as we return to work, school, etc

3)  Open regional areas of the US as the curve diminishes to a level sustainable for our hospitals to treat patients      

4)  Expedite the vaccine process for the original strain & research the new mutations for applicable variant of the vaccine

5)  Make lifestyle adaptations to continue our daily lives that include the current CDC guidelines for social distancing, hygiene, mask, etc  

Of course, there's always the chance that I don't know what the hell I'm talking about.  But it sounds like common sense to me.  

Sure, there is a lot of common sense in there.  My first instincts weeks ago were supportive of every one of these ideas, word for word. 

Fast-forward to today, and we see a few details being tweaked:

2.  Apparently, the kind of widespread testing you and I want is not practical, maybe not possible at all.  In 180+ nations, not one is testing most of their population.

2 again.  Contact tracing is merely a measure taken after the horse has left the barn.  (Yes, it is still worth doing since this horse is contagious.  But proactive measures will be more significant.) 

4.  The experts I hear say that vaccines can take 15 years to vet, and that 18 months IS the expedited process.

1.  The various responses we have seen of "shelter in place", "slow the spread", "stay home, stay safe", etc., are short-term measures.  They are not tenable for 18 months.  You cannot shut down half of working America long-term.  That would cause more deaths than the virus, and the accompanying systemic destruction would set our essential services (i.e. health care system, food supply chain) back so far as to ensure many more deaths in the following years.  Therefore, the plan now is to first achieve your #3 and #5 above, and then modify #1 in phases so that some people can get back to work.

And let us not forget...

6.  Treatments.  We need to identify, research, test, approve, produce and distribute every medication we can find that is effective against the virus... and then keep seeking others that are more effective.  In an emergency such as this, there is a huge advantage to utilizing existing medications which have established knowledge regarding dosage levels, side effects, interactions with other meds, and so forth.  There is no guarantee we will get a vaccine (AIDS still has none).

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9 hours ago, N.E. Brigand said:

You can easily find video of protesters complaining that the shut down has prevented them from going to the salon.

I didn't make that up.

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Although my personal favorite might be the complaint by the organizer of the Nashville protest: "I hate having to get two iced teas in the drive-thru".

Because restaurants aren't giving free refills right now, you see.

 

Yes. Continue to trivialize the economic devastation with pithy nose-in-the-air sarcasm about nail salons and iced coffee. I have a sibling who owns a small restaurant and employs a couple dozen staff. She may not make it. But that doesn’t fit the narrative of the neo-nazi stupid protester. So continue to ignore that. It’s not all one way or all the other way. People who want businesses open are NOT ignoring the health safety precautions that must accompany these things. But by all means, continue to ignore this and keep sneering. 

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14 hours ago, Poppycock said:

Approximately 1.1 million people in the U.S. are living with HIV today. About 14 percent of them (1 in 7) don’t know it and need testing. Let’s not make one issue more important than another thank you. 

 

8 hours ago, Jeff Ream said:

true but HIV isn't airborne.

 

8 hours ago, N.E. Brigand said:

And for many years, there have been some pretty effective treatments for it.

 

5 minutes ago, Poppycock said:

I'm sensing a slightly negative attitude! 

Big difference between the percentage of people who do the various things that might cause HIV and every human being who breaths, sneezes, coughs, etc.  that could cause air borne viruses. 

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