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12 minutes ago, N.E. Brigand said:

Since it was the subject of some back and forth here recently, the CDC now estimates the infection fatality rate for Covid-19 is 0.65%:

https://reason.com/2020/07/13/cdcs-latest-estimated-covid-19-infection-fatality-ratio-0-65/

I had said it was somewhere between 0.5% and 1.0%. As a reminder: the IFR for the flu is 0.1%. So the CDC is saying Covid-19 is 6.5 times deadlier.

 

That doesn't really match up with the data on their website. It states if you get COVID 19 the fatality rate is about 4%. 135,991 deaths divided by 3,416,428 cases. 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

Edited by DAvery
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5 minutes ago, DAvery said:

I teach in Ohio and our reopening plan is no plan. All the students, all the time. Social distancing is not possible and masks are not required. What could possibly go wrong?  

Stuff hit fan....,

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Just now, DAvery said:

That doesn't really match up with the data on their website. It states if you get COVID 19 the fatality rate is about 4%. 135,991 deaths divided by 3,416,428 cases. 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

That's because the CDC knows that the number of reported cases is much less than the number of actual cases.

It's very bad, and it's much worse than some people would have us believe, but it's not that bad.

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3 hours ago, skevinp said:

[1] Well, we wouldn’t have a vaccine upon reopening so it seems like it would come back, just maybe a little slower.  [2] And isolating on a massive scale doesn’t sound like “operating at near 100%” to me.  

[3] And back on March 15 we didn’t know as much as we do now (which still isn’t that much).  When did the “experts” stop telling us that we shouldn’t wear masks?  I was at an event in early March (that I was required to fly to) and everyone was sitting close and shaking hands. Almost no masks at the airport or even on the planes.  People didn’t know.

[4] If you told them then they had to shut every down, no one would have complied.  And by whose authority would we have shut everything down?

[5] I raised the very issue a while back of why we think things won’t just come back after a temporary shutdown.  The answer I was given was “herd immunity”.  But I don’t see how herd immunity could have taken effect during a shutdown.

[1] There's no vaccine and yet Taiwan and New Zealand have both reopened, at least internally. I just saw footage from a baseball game in Taiwan with people in the stands. And sure, those are both island nations. But so what? Other non-island countries have come through this and are in a much better place than we are. It wouldn't be so hard if we just took the right steps. We'd have to effectively make ourselves an island for a while. We'd need to put in place serious travel restrictions, requiring any international visitors to quarantine for two weeks. Which, by the way, is something we didn't do when we "banned" flights from China (after which another 40,000 people entered this country from China, with no restrictions in most cases).

[2] I said that after reopening we'd need to have the capacity to test, trace, and isolate on a massive scale. By that I meant that if any flare up should occur, anywhere in the country, we would be ready to test everyone affected, trace their contacts and test them, and then quarantine them for two weeks. But apart from those hot spots, life could indeed go on more or less as normal. Mask wearing would need to be ubiquitous as part of this new normal. There would be some other adjustments. But it would be much closer to normal than where we are now.

[3] Many people have rightly pointed out that the CDC and others erred in their early guidance regarding masks. Authorities were worried about a shortage in N95 masks, so they were only advising mask wearing to people who were ill and not for the general public. But if you look back, you can see the consensus opinion was changing over the course of March, with pushback from all sides. I was wearing a mask when I went the grocery store by the last week of March, and by that time, about half of my fellow shoppers were doing the same. I think the very latest date that anyone can claim ignorance about the importance of masks is April 3, when the CDC recommended that everyone wear a simple cloth mask when interacting with others. Also, social distancing is at least as important as mask wearing. And a number of states had imposed their shutdown orders by mid-March. So it would have been possible for every state to put that in place even if it took another two weeks for masks to become regular.

[4] If the President urged a national shutdown (and mask wearing?) on March 15, then governors would have complied.

[5] I don't know who said that to you, but I have repeatedly said here that any Covid-19 policy that aims for herd immunity is a disaster. That was the U.K.'s policy in early March. Then they took a hard look at the numbers and realized how many people would have to die for herd immunity to be achieved. (Not to mention that their Prime Minister was hospitalized and his condition got so bad that they were close to putting him on a ventilator.) When I suggested that Sweden's policy was to achieve herd immunity, cixelsyd argued vociferously that neither Sweden nor any other country was pursuing that goal, and it was wrong of me to even suggest that a country was being so misguided as that.

(Speaking of Sweden: their top epidemiologist now says he was wrong and they should have locked down more, so that fewer lives would be lost. On a per capita basis, Sweden's Covid death rate, although not the worst in the world, is worse than that in the U.S.)

If anything, people were too skeptical about how effective lockdowns, social distancing, and masks could be. I count myself among this group. Like too few people, I didn't realize that it was possible to achieve what New Zealand and Taiwan managed. So what I argued for was that at the very least, we needed to "bend the curve" just to keep hospital capacity from being overwhelmed. Lots of people argued that what I was calling for was too much. It turns out it was too little.

And of course, some people just had their heads in the sand.

A DCP post (not by anyone posting in this thread, as far as I know), on March 9:

"I’ll predict this will have burned itself out by June and the shows will go on. Let’s revisit this in a couple months."

Edited by N.E. Brigand
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1 hour ago, N.E. Brigand said:

That's because the CDC knows that the number of reported cases is much less than the number of actual cases.

It's very bad, and it's much worse than some people would have us believe, but it's not that bad.

Thanks for explaining that to others.  I tried to explain it yesterday and was practically accused of murder.  

I agree that it isn’t a good thing.  I just want people to understand what the risk really is so they can make the best decisions possible when they have to balance them agains others, like refraining to see a doctor because of or to check for things that could be serious or deadly themselves.  

And having been stuck at home for 4 months (I think I may have said 5 the other but I counted wrong - I guess it seemed longer), I know there are other serious issues that can be indirectly dangerous.  

Please be safe everyone, which includes being smart about what you do.

 

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5 minutes ago, skevinp said:

Thanks for explaining that to others.  I tried to explain it yesterday and was practically accused of murder.  

I agree that it isn’t a good thing.  I just want people to understand what the risk really is so they can make the best decisions possible when they have to balance them agains others, like refraining to see a doctor because of or to check for things that could be serious or deadly themselves.  

And having been stuck at home for 4 months (I think I may have said 5 the other but I counted wrong - I guess it seemed longer), I know there are other serious issues that can be indirectly dangerous.  

Please be safe everyone, which includes being smart about what you do.

 

I would add to this that while we are talking about overall averages, the chances of dying from this are HUGELY different depending on age and significantly different based on circumstances).  

People need to be aware of that reality both with respect to themselves and others around them.  Even if you are young and could survive it, if you give it to someone older they might not.  

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33 minutes ago, skevinp said:

Thanks for explaining that to others.  I tried to explain it yesterday and was practically accused of murder.  

I haven’t seen Woodstock lately ... just sayin’.

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I also want to say that our best hope for dealing with this is understanding it and our best hope for understanding it is using our brains and being rational and objective, being open minded and trying to understand what others are saying rather than reflexively dismissing it, being patient and explaining rationally why we believe what we do rather than insulting others for what they say or believe.  

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8 hours ago, Old Corps Guy said:

This appears to have gone political 10-15 pages ago.  Or am I missing something?

:fight:

Actually, by and large, I think we have been doing pretty good lately. I see a sharing of perspectives with the occasional bumps in the road.

But speaking of masks ... I went to the local party store yesterday.  A guy with a black bandana over his face was talking with the owners ... the kind of guy you would see in a Spaghetti Western saying, “Reach for the sky.”

After he left, one of the owners asked me, “Hey, Brian, do you follow hockey?”

“Yeah, of course.”

“That was Darren McCarty, he lives around the corner.”

####. Even Darren McCarty, one of the toughest players of the old  Red Wings’ championship teams, wears a mask. I think he has three rings.

Edited by Jurassic Lancer
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10 minutes ago, Jurassic Lancer said:

Actually, by and large, I think we have been doing pretty good lately. I see a sharing of perspectives with the occasional bumps in the road.

But speaking of masks ... I went to the local party store yesterday.  A guy with a black bandana over his face was talking with the owners ... the kind of guy you would see in a Spaghetti Western saying, “Reach for the sky.”

After he left, one of the owners asked me, “Hey, Brian, do you follow Hockey?”

“Yeah, of course.”

“That was Darren McCarty, he lives around the corner.”

####. Even Darren McCarty, one of the toughest players of the old champion Red Wings teams, wears a mask.

I just found me a new favorite player even if he is retired. I wear the same type of mask. To be honest when my dad passed we found about 20 bandanas (from Ollie’s I’m sure) and been using them. Fits over a full beard better imo.

Edited by JimF-LowBari
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