Colorado Marching Band Cancelled

[soccerguy315]

20 hours ago, JimF-LowBari said:

 
Seriously.... what has happened to this country? WWII we had meatless days, rationing, buying bonds, car pooling or not driving at all, etc all for the good of the country fighting a war. Now can’t even wear a piece of cloth over their face or social distance without people screaming “MAH RIGHTS!” and not a thought of others.

 

We've taught people that their personal preferences are the most important thing and the rest of society will adjust to you. The minute you are asked to do something uncomfortable, you can get the other person fired (college professors) or publicly shamed and harassed online. We have taught people that our country is broken and must be torn down. We have taught people that their fellow citizens are exploiting them and the cause of any issues in their lives instead of teaching them that fellow citizens are all in the fight together. 

It is unfortunate. 

 

Regarding fall, a lot of the more populous school systems in VA are starting school either completely virtual, or with a hybrid model. And the high school sports people have said no football in the fall, but possibly yes (still TBD) to lower risk sports like cross country. 

Edited July 16, 2020 by soccerguy315

[DAvery]

6 hours ago, N.E. Brigand said:

That's because the CDC knows that the number of reported cases is much less than the number of actual cases.

It's very bad, and it's much worse than some people would have us believe, but it's not that bad.

So you are saying they are lying and under reporting the number of cases? I suspect there are more cases than have been diagnosed, but the data speaks for itself. You say its not that bad, do you have proof? 

[N.E. Brigand]

4 minutes ago, DAvery said:

So you are saying they are lying and under reporting the number of cases? I suspect there are more cases than have been diagnosed, but the data speaks for itself. You say its not that bad, do you have proof? 

No they're not lying. They're reporting the number of positive tests. But we should have been testing a minimum of 750,000 people every day for the past five months. We've only tested that many people in a day on four or five occasions (most recently today). And the CDC (and others) can tell from other metrics, like the positivity rates in Florida, Texas, and Arizona, that the real number of cases is substantially higher than the reported number of cases. And with that knowledge in mind, and a lot of other statistics, they come up with their best estimate for the death rate. Trust me, it's not 4%. Even the worst-case early estimates weren't that high, and by April we had a pretty good sense, from all over the world, that it was probably 1% at most.

[N.E. Brigand]

22 hours ago, JimF-LowBari said:

Seriously.... what has happened to this country? WWII we had meatless days, rationing, buying bonds, car pooling or not driving at all, etc all for the good of the country fighting a war. Now can’t even wear a piece of cloth over their face or social distance without people screaming “MAH RIGHTS!” and not a thought of others.

Saw a funny quote from Jason Alexander (of Seinfeld fame) earlier today:

"In World War II, Londoners were asked to black out their homes at night so the enemy bombers wouldn't see the lights and know where to target. No Londoner said, 'It's my right to have lights on,' because others would say, 'Your lights on endagers us.' Substitute 'mask' for 'lights'. Now argue."

[N.E. Brigand]

6 hours ago, N.E. Brigand said:

[3] Many people have rightly pointed out that the CDC and others erred in their early guidance regarding masks. Authorities were worried about a shortage in N95 masks, so they were only advising mask wearing to people who were ill and not for the general public. But if you look back, you can see the consensus opinion was changing over the course of March, with pushback from all sides. I was wearing a mask when I went the grocery store by the last week of March, and by that time, about half of my fellow shoppers were doing the same. I think the very latest date that anyone can claim ignorance about the importance of masks is April 3, when the CDC recommended that everyone wear a simple cloth mask when interacting with others. Also, social distancing is at least as important as mask wearing. And a number of states had imposed their shutdown orders by mid-March. So it would have been possible for every state to put that in place even if it took another two weeks for masks to become regular.

Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the CDC (a job to which he appointed in March 2018), offered this guidance in a tweet today:

"I believe if everyone, including #Millennials and #GenZ, wear a cloth face covering for the next 4 to 6 weeks, we can get the #COVID19 epidemic under control."

 

[Guitar1974]

2 minutes ago, DAvery said:

So you are saying they are lying and under reporting the number of cases? I suspect there are more cases than have been diagnosed, but the data speaks for itself. You say its not that bad, do you have proof? 

Cases are very underreported, by a significant amount.  At the onset of the outbreak only those with severe symptoms were tested due to the scarcity of tests.  Many, many cases were missed.  I work in public health and assure you the numbers are very inaccurate all around.  The good news is the virus is much less of a threat to kids and young adults than typical influenza.  Flu is much higher statistical risk to young people.  It is frustrating to see so much misinformation and misunderstanding about COVID.  People have been conditioned to believe the virus is a risk to kids- the data tells a much different story.  At the health department we see the actual data and track all the cases daily.   None of my health department colleagues with school-age kids want to see schools and activities cancelled.  

[N.E. Brigand]

4 minutes ago, Guitar1974 said:

People have been conditioned to believe the virus is a risk to kids- the data tells a much different story.  At the health department we see the actual data and track all the cases daily.   None of my health department colleagues with school-age kids want to see schools and activities cancelled.  

One of Israel's top health officials testified last week to their legislature that their recent spike (1000 cases per day now compared to 10 cases per day in May) is caused by reopening schools too quickly.

[Guitar1974]

10 minutes ago, N.E. Brigand said:

No they're not lying. They're reporting the number of positive tests. But we should have been testing a minimum of 750,000 people every day for the past five months. We've only tested that many people in a day on four or five occasions (most recently today). And the CDC (and others) can tell from other metrics, like the positivity rates in Florida, Texas, and Arizona, that the real number of cases is substantially higher than the reported number of cases. And with that knowledge in mind, and a lot of other statistics, they come up with their best estimate for the death rate. Trust me, it's not 4%. Even the worst-case early estimates weren't that high, and by April we had a pretty good sense, from all over the world, that it was probably 1% at most.

CDC's best guess is 0.26 for infection fatality rate.  It is really impossible at this point to know for sure since there is no way to know how many actual cases there are.  

 

[N.E. Brigand]

1 minute ago, Guitar1974 said:

CDC's best guess is 0.26 for infection fatality rate.  It is really impossible at this point to know for sure since there is no way to know how many actual cases there are.

CDC just this week, in the link I previously offered, said their best estimate for IFR now is 0.65%.

[Jeff Ream]

6 hours ago, DAvery said:

I teach in Ohio and our reopening plan is no plan. All the students, all the time. Social distancing is not possible and masks are not required. What could possibly go wrong?  

everything