Colorado Marching Band Cancelled

[Jeff Ream]

16 minutes ago, N.E. Brigand said:

The medical profesionals are too busy saving people's lives to be sharing news with the rest of us, so that leaves the responsibility to concerned citizens.

odd given the level of expertise being thrown around

[N.E. Brigand]

15 minutes ago, cixelsyd said:

Yes, they changed the numbers... they increased them.

So you think Georgia is trying to make people think that the numbers are not going up by... making the numbers go up?

Yes. Because guess what: if you log onto the GA dept. of health website today, you won't see that July 2 graphic where the numbers were low. So if you're checking, say, weekly, to see how things are going, your impression, unless you've been writing the numbers down, will be that things haven't changed.

As always, I will allow that the reason this happened might be incompetence rather than malice.

[cixelsyd]

4 minutes ago, N.E. Brigand said:

Yes. Because guess what: if you log onto the GA dept. of health website today, you won't see that July 2 graphic where the numbers were low.

Of course not.  Those numbers would be outdated now.

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So if you're checking, say, weekly, to see how things are going, your impression, unless you've been writing the numbers down, will be that things haven't changed.

What?

If I checked on July 2 and saw 2961, then checked on July 17 and saw 3769, my impression would be that things changed from 2961 to 3769.  Why would anyone think otherwise?

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As always, I will allow that the reason this happened might be incompetence rather than malice.

Not understanding this comment either.

[N.E. Brigand]

2 minutes ago, cixelsyd said:

If I checked on July 2 and saw 2961, then checked on July 17 and saw 3769, my impression would be that things changed from 2961 to 3769.  Why would anyone think otherwise?

The two maps look almost identical. The general public isn't writing down the numbers: they're noting how red the state looks.

[N.E. Brigand]

6 hours ago, cixelsyd said:

[1] But you know C-19 cannot be compared to the flu.

[2] Based on what - the unfounded assumption that all excess deaths must be C-19?

[3] How many excess deaths were caused by the lockdowns?  No one is counting that.

[4] How many excess deaths were caused by the escalating urban violence of the past six weeks?

[5] How many excess deaths were caused by suicide, or refusal to seek treatment for other ailments, because people are scared ######## by media and certain individuals online carpet-bombing them with cherry-picked statistics for four months and counting?

[6] What IS irresponsible is denying all these other causes of death, exaggerating C-19, and causing panic.

I'll be right eventually. I'll be right eventually.

1. Of course it can. You yourself have compared them (and pointed out some differences).

2. No. It's based on a number of factors, including much past experience in how reported deaths differ from actual deaths, as well as a spike in "pneumonia" deaths since March. 

3. I think someone is counting that, to the degree that it exists. Isn't this really just a variation on question #5? Nobody is killed just be being stuck in their apartment.

4. My wild guess is 600. That assumes a 50% increase in annual gun homicides over a six-week period, which is probably a high estimate..

5. Probably about as many lives haven't been lost to othe causes due to the lockdown: traffic fatalities are down, for example, or as I noted in the very post to which you responded, child fatalaities are way down this year (one possible reason being that parents are more often with their kids and neglecting them less).

6. For years, I have felt that were the smartest contribuor to DCP. And your writing on Covid-19 proves it, I think, although "cleverest" might have been the better adjective. You've been pretty canny this whole time, going back to late February. You've declined to make any predictions about what will happen, for example. Wise. Reasonable. Safe. Instead your focus has been reactive, merely questioning what others write: a voice of apparent calm directing the conversation away from opinion and back to facts. Mature. Admirable.

- - - - - - - - - -

But what would you say about someone who almost exlusively picks apart only those who warn about the dangers and almost completely ignores those who claim that the risks are exaggerated, even as those Pollyannas were proved wrong again and again and again and again? As you'll recall, I myself did go on the record here with a prediction about the number of deaths (meaning the number of officially reported deaths), and later I admitted was wrong: I was TOO HOPEFUL. My guess was too low. How did you respond to that admission?

[cixelsyd]

1 minute ago, N.E. Brigand said:

The two maps look almost identical. The general public isn't writing down the numbers: they're noting how red the state looks.

OMG - is that what this is about?  Just the colors?

And insinuating that could be malicious deceit, or if not, definitely incompetence?  Wow.

Awhile back, a cable channel began running simple color-coded maps showing states with a confirmed C-19 infection in red.  Over time, C-19 spread to the point where every state had at least one infected person, at which point they actually showed the map with every state in red.  Then they instead began showing maps where only a certain high number of cases turned a state red.  No one (to my knowledge) accused the cable channel of incompetence on that account, much less malice. 

The color-coding only indicates relativity (i.e. where the hot spots are).  It is not a deep-state conspiracy to make people think the numbers are not changing.

Do not panic.

[N.E. Brigand]

7 minutes ago, cixelsyd said:

Do not panic.

Me in April: 105,000 Americans will die from the first wave alone.

You: Do not panic.

Me in June: I was wrong. The first wave is still going and we're well past 105,000 deaths.

You: Do not panic.

[skevinp]

9 minutes ago, N.E. Brigand said:

Me in April: 105,000 Americans will die from the first wave alone.

You: Do not panic.

Me in June: I was wrong. The first wave is still going and we're well past 105,000 deaths.

You: Do not panic.

Me in July: Can we get over ourselves and start focusing on what we can do to save lives?  

[N.E. Brigand]

2 minutes ago, skevinp said:

Me in July: Can we get over ourselves and start focusing on what we can do to save lives?  

Get everyone to wear a mask, but even that simple step is too controversial. 

[cixelsyd]

20 minutes ago, N.E. Brigand said:

For years, I have felt that were the smartest contribuor to DCP. And your writing on Covid-19 proves it, I think, although "cleverest" might have been the better adjective. You've been pretty canny this whole time, going back to late February. You've declined to make any predictions about what will happen, for example. Wise. Reasonable. Safe. Instead your focus has been reactive, merely questioning what others write: a voice of apparent calm directing the conversation away from opinion and back to facts. Mature. Admirable.

I have made plenty of predictions.  Among them (if we can briefly swerve on topic), I predicted that in the course of planning for safe reopening of schools, extracurricular activities would likely be one of the sacrifices made in the name of safety first.  We are seeing that play out for the fall marching band activity right now, as contests are being cancelled.

If you are looking for more general predictions, I did say that America, land of freedom, would inevitably suck at pandemic response for that very reason.  But I would rather not spike the football over whether that was a wise/reasonable/safe prediction.

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But what would you say about someone who almost exlusively picks apart only those who warn about the dangers and almost completely ignores those who claim that the risks are exaggerated

Someone (often you) nearly always beat me to it back in those long-lost days when people naively posted denial that C-19 was really something significant.  Posts at the other end of the scale, however, have typically been left unaddressed until I respond.  It seems as if I am the only one here who, while acknowledging the seriousness of the situation, is also saying "do not panic".  Without that balance, things could get worse than they need to.

Do you understand that?