Cappybara Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 1 hour ago, N.E. Brigand said: I'll be right eventually. I'll be right eventually. 6. For years, I have felt that were the smartest contribuor to DCP. And your writing on Covid-19 proves it, I think, although "cleverest" might have been the better adjective. You've been pretty canny this whole time, going back to late February. You've declined to make any predictions about what will happen, for example. Wise. Reasonable. Safe. Instead your focus has been reactive, merely questioning what others write: a voice of apparent calm directing the conversation away from opinion and back to facts. Mature. Admirable. - - - - - - - - - - But what would you say about someone who almost exlusively picks apart only those who warn about the dangers and almost completely ignores those who claim that the risks are exaggerated, even as those Pollyannas were proved wrong again and again and again and again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAvery Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 2 hours ago, skevinp said: I can’t speak to anyone’s true motivations, but if someone pushes numbers that are obviously and demonstrably false, I would not call that reporting. A couple of weeks ago there was some confusion over the 4% deaths per reported cases statistic, and some people appeared to be thinking it meant 4% of people who HAVE Covid die, which is undeniably false (it is likely between 4 to 40 times too high) and would be a scary thing for people to believe and might scare them away from doing essential things like going to the doctor. To find the percentage of people that die from COVID after having contracted COVID, you would divide the number of COVID cases by the number of COVID fatalities, correct? Currently the CDC lists the total number of COVID cases as 3,630,587 and the total COVID fatalities as 138,782. Are you saying these numbers are not correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cappybara Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 29 minutes ago, DAvery said: To find the percentage of people that die from COVID after having contracted COVID, you would divide the number of COVID cases by the number of COVID fatalities, correct? Currently the CDC lists the total number of COVID cases as 3,630,587 and the total COVID fatalities as 138,782. Are you saying these numbers are not correct? He is simply suggesting that 3.6 million is likely not an accurate measure of the total number of COVID cases in this country as not every single person has been tested and many present as asymptomatic. Which is true. However, I do believe deaths have been undercounted as well, but that’s just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skevinp Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 13 minutes ago, DAvery said: To find the percentage of people that die from COVID after having contracted COVID, you would divide the number of COVID cases by the number of COVID fatalities, correct? Currently the CDC lists the total number of COVID cases as 3,630,587 and the total COVID fatalities as 138,782. Are you saying these numbers are not correct? No, because the number of “cases” is not the number of people who have it, it is the number of people who have been tested for it and tested positive. A lot of people who have had it were never tested for it. Many never had any symptoms. We don’t know the actual number of people who have it but most guesses I have seen would put it between 4 and 40 times as many as have been tested. The CDC has a recent estimate of 0.65%, which may or may not have been part of a worse than normal scenario. A few weeks earlier, they had said 0.26%. Those two numbers are about 1/6 and 1/15 of 4%, respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skevinp Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 18 minutes ago, Cappybara said: He is simply suggesting that 3.6 million is likely not an accurate measure of the total number of COVID cases in this country as not every single person has been tested and many present as asymptomatic. Which is true. However, I do believe deaths have been undercounted as well, but that’s just my opinion. Thanks. I imagine there are both undercounts and overcounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimF-LowBari Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 Two points: haven’t seen it here but some people try to compare CV and flu fatal rate and are saying not all CV cases are counted. Same can be said for flu as not every one who gets sick goes to doctors either. If you are on the wrong side of the percentage.... BFD on the numbers..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terri Schehr Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 I don’t know why I’m doing this but 🤷♀️ https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimF-LowBari Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 Just now, Terri Schehr said: I don’t know why I’m doing this but 🤷♀️ https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm Waiting for someone to say “here are the numbers.... too #### many....” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terri Schehr Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, JimF-LowBari said: Waiting for someone to say “here are the numbers.... too #### many....” I’ve had influenza many times in my life. I’ve never been tested for it. I can count on one hand the times I’ve seen the doctor for it. But I still had it and the CDC has to have a way to estimate people like me. And this describes the formula. Pretty interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurassic Lancer Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, Terri Schehr said: I don’t know why I’m doing this but 🤷♀️ https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm Now you’ve done it ... you have been lured to the dark side! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts