DFA1970 Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 33 minutes ago, hostrauser said: Pandemics in the 20th Century burned out after 12-18 months, with or without a vaccine. The Coronavirus pandemic truly began in Wuhan, China in January 2020. So, vaccine or no, the virus will likely have run its course sometime no later than June 2021, and will disappear for the time being. The question is: how quickly will things return to a rough semblance of normal? Considering half of the country doesn't even think there's a problem after 200,000 Americans have died, I would wager that America will learn absolutely nothing and snap back to old habits virtually immediately. With careful planning of camps there could easily be a 2021 season. It might be shortened a little, and (per usual) the biggest wildcard will be housing. Please remember that we now live in a place within 24 hrs your can be half around the world in no time. That was not the case in early 1900's. Yeah it run it's course most likely because (the virus) had no one else to infect. The World economy is now global. That will never change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Ream Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 2 hours ago, Newseditor44 said: The absolute bottom line... until there is a safe and effective vaccine, nothing can move forward for in person events. You can't even begin to plan until that is in place. And even when it is in place, it could be years before we go back to a national touring model. DCI can survive this, the question is how long until we're back to where we were. It could be at least a decade. while some places are allowing a certain percentage of the stands to be filled now, i doubt we will be at full capacity in most places without a widely distributed vaccine 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimF-LowBari Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Jeff Ream said: while some places are allowing a certain percentage of the stands to be filled now, i doubt we will be at full capacity in most places without a widely distributed vaccine And will partially filled pay the bills... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hostrauser Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 1 hour ago, DFA1970 said: Please remember that we now live in a place within 24 hrs your can be half around the world in no time. That was not the case in early 1900's. Yeah it run it's course most likely because (the virus) had no one else to infect. The World economy is now global. That will never change. Please remember that the H1N1 "Spanish" Influenza of 1918-19 was not the only respiratory pandemic of the 20th Century. There was the H2N2 "Asian" Influenza of 1957-58, the H3N2 "Hong Kong" Influenza of 1968-1970, the H1N1 "Soviet" Influenza of 1977-78, and the H5N1 "Bird" Influenza of 2003-2004. But perhaps the closest reference point for SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 would be the the SARS-CoV-1 outbreak from November 16th, 2002 to May 19th, 2004. The last severe coronavirus pandemic lasted 18 months and 3 days. No pandemic lasts forever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimF-LowBari Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 1 minute ago, hostrauser said: Please remember that the H1N1 "Spanish" Influenza of 1918-19 was not the only respiratory pandemic of the 20th Century. There was the H2N2 "Asian" Influenza of 1957-58, the H3N2 "Hong Kong" Influenza of 1968-1970, the H1N1 "Soviet" Influenza of 1977-78, and the H5N1 "Bird" Influenza of 2003-2004. But perhaps the closest reference point for SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 would be the the SARS-CoV-1 outbreak from November 16th, 2002 to May 19th, 2004. The last severe coronavirus pandemic lasted 18 months and 3 days. No pandemic lasts forever. Scary part for me is we don’t know why they go away... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFA1970 Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, hostrauser said: Please remember that the H1N1 "Spanish" Influenza of 1918-19 was not the only respiratory pandemic of the 20th Century. There was the H2N2 "Asian" Influenza of 1957-58, the H3N2 "Hong Kong" Influenza of 1968-1970, the H1N1 "Soviet" Influenza of 1977-78, and the H5N1 "Bird" Influenza of 2003-2004. But perhaps the closest reference point for SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 would be the the SARS-CoV-1 outbreak from November 16th, 2002 to May 19th, 2004. The last severe coronavirus pandemic lasted 18 months and 3 days. No pandemic lasts forever. Are we arguing with what virus is the worst? It won't go away as RUMP says it will. The virus doesn't say ok boys lets back it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hostrauser Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, JimF-LowBari said: Scary part for me is we don’t know why they go away... We have a good idea: they evolve/mutate their way out of relevancy. The problem is there are so many strains and they mutate so quickly it can be hard to determine in real-time whether ALL strains are gone, or just, say, 75% of them. This stuff is easier to determine years down the road, in review. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200918-why-some-deadly-viruses-vanish-and-go-extinct 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hostrauser Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, DFA1970 said: Are we arguing with what virus is the worst? It won't go away as RUMP says it will. The virus doesn't say ok boys lets back it up. Go away isn't probably the right term. But it WILL change. It WILL eventually change into a format that is less harmful to humans. There might be many, many more deaths this winter before that happens. But COVID-19 will eventually burn out, vaccines or no. It won't stay with us forever, unchanging. That's not how viruses work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFA1970 Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, hostrauser said: Go away isn't probably the right term. But it WILL change. It WILL eventually change into a format that is less harmful to humans. There might be many, many more deaths this winter before that happens. But COVID-19 will eventually burn out, vaccines or no. It won't stay with us forever, unchanging. That's not how viruses work. It will go away eventually. But the Spanish flu infected over 500 million people world wide and killed 50 million of them. And yes it did subside but this is 2020. Medicine are advanced. But again we live in a world that travels. That was not the case in early 1900's unless you went for wars. It will go away faster if most people take it seriously. Edited September 30, 2020 by DFA1970 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Continental Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 33 minutes ago, DFA1970 said: It will go away eventually. But the Spanish flu infected over 500 million people world wide and killed 50 million of them. And yes it did subside but this is 2020. Medicine are advanced. But again we live in a world that travels. That was not the case in early 1900's unless you went for wars. It will go away faster if most people take it seriously. Tonight at midnight we go into our 2nd lockdown. There are fewer restrictions compared to the first (schools will remain open) but we have been told no home visits. Fines are severe. This is supposed to last for 28 days. https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/covid19-police-to-issue-1000-tickets-for-violations-in-red-zones Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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