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2022 Season Predictions


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11 minutes ago, Den8uml said:

What about BAC going from 12 at finals and then 6th the next season. That would be a similar take as suggested for BlueStars. 

Boston had a dramatic influx of new staff that were already PROVEN at other corps and the jump from 12th to 6th wasn't just magically done, it was because the corps genuinely dramatically improved both in talent and design in the course of one offseason. There are also larger differences in talent levels from the 12-6th place corps than the 6-1st place corps. Generally, all the corps in the top 5 have the talent to win a championship, and the differences between those corps really come down to show design and execution. It's easier to make a jump from 12th to 6th than 6th to 1st

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1 hour ago, Cappybara said:

Who was that poster who'd talk about his theory of competitive inertia on DCP? Was it Hostrauser? Bruckner8? 

Regardless, the theory is tried and true and has been for a very long time. Boston winning this year would break that theory. I'm siding with the theory until proven otherwise. Until Boston first enters the top 3, they will not win the title

It was Bruckner8 who had the CI theory.

I assert that CI has been broken for all corps, as there were no contests the past two years.

I assert that the corps who went to Indy last year have an organizational inertia though. They aren't as out of the loop as the corps who chose to stay home. Just my opinion though.

There are corps who have gone from lower grouping to win or be in the higher grouping.

Madison Scouts '87 to '88. 6th to 1st and an almost 7 point increase year to year...

Star '89 to Star '90 - 6th to 3rd with legitimate shots at 2nd or 1st.

Blue Devils '74 to '75 - 9th to 3rd.

Blue Devils '04 to '05 - 2nd to 4th.

 

Edited by jjeffeory
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45 minutes ago, IllianaLancerContra said:

But wouldn’t it be cool if a mid-pack finalist, say Blue Stars, came out with a smoking hot show, both design and execution.  Would the judges have the guts to put them ahead of SVC, Bluecoats, BAC, and BD if they actually believed they were better?   

That's how it is supposed to work, but it doesn't.

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2013 Inspire Arts & Music formed

2015 BAC would now stand for Building A Champion.

2016 BAC battled to remain in top 12.

2017 BAC shocks the activity with transformational staff hirings.

2017 - 2020 Consistent top 5/6  and Zingali Top Color Guard

2021 No years off, Champion level Corps

2022 BAC will stand for Become A Champion

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17 minutes ago, jjeffeory said:

It was Bruckner8 who had the CI theory.

I assert that CI has been broken for all corps, as there were no contests the past two years.

I assert that the corps who went to Indy last year have an organizational inertia though. They aren't as out of the loop as the corps who chose to stay home. Just my opinion though.

There are corps who have gone from lower grouping to win or be in the higher grouping.

Madison Scouts '87 to '88. 6th to 1st and an almost 7 point increase year to year...

Star '89 to Star '90 - 6th to 3rd with legitimate shots at 2nd or 1st.

Blue Devils '74 to '75 - 9th to 3rd.

Blue Devils '04 to '05 - 2nd to 4th.

 

I was thinking of Planar analysis. 

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1 minute ago, Terri Schehr said:

I was thinking of Planar analysis. 

Yeah, I think that was Stuart Rice.

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32 minutes ago, Vidal28Rdg said:

In the hypothetical scenario that has nearly no precedent that we could judge off of, if a show from a non-top 6 corps or even emerging top 6 corps was showing up and showing out to the level of championship quality, it’d be kinda idiotic for a show that will have been viewed by at least a few critical eyes more than once throughout the season, and in 3 runs at Indy to not be given its credit. Again it’s never really been the case ‘cause corps do take these incremental leaps that do indeed have historical precedent, but the adjudicator should be seeking to only look at what’s in front of them compared to everything else they see on the day of performance. It’s not something I believe can happen in one season, a 6th-8th place corps in their few previous seasons leapfrogging all the way to second and even possibly contending for a title, but if it does, give it its credit!!

It happened in 1970 (yes, pre-DCI & in the tick era) when SCV showed up out of nowhere and blew everyone else off the field.  

Like it or hate it - one thing about the tick system is that the casual fan could tell is a Corps was having a good run or not.  Yes ticks were subjective, but less subjective than the current system. 

Edited by IllianaLancerContra
further pontification
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2 minutes ago, IllianaLancerContra said:

It happened in 1970 (yes, pre-DCI & in the tick era) when SCV showed up out of nowhere and blew everyone else off the field.  

Like it or hate it - one thing about the tick system is that the casual fan could tell is a Corps was having a good run or not.  Yes ticks were subjective, but less subjective than the current system. 

They showed up in the Midwest in 1971 and kicked everybody’s ###.  I do remember that. 

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51 minutes ago, jjeffeory said:

It was Bruckner8 who had the CI theory.

I assert that CI has been broken for all corps, as there were no contests the past two years.

I assert that the corps who went to Indy last year have an organizational inertia though. They aren't as out of the loop as the corps who chose to stay home. Just my opinion though.

There are corps who have gone from lower grouping to win or be in the higher grouping.

Madison Scouts '87 to '88. 6th to 1st and an almost 7 point increase year to year...

Star '89 to Star '90 - 6th to 3rd with legitimate shots at 2nd or 1st.

Blue Devils '74 to '75 - 9th to 3rd.

Blue Devils '04 to '05 - 2nd to 4th.

 

Brucker has stated that Scouts are the only exception, though it can also be argued that performance mattered a lot more in judging than it does today. Design is much more emphasized now compared to in 88. 

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