2022 Season Predictions

[Boss Anova]

1 hour ago, Cappybara said:

So the GE judges are going to spot Crown a couple points for the app?

You give such little credit to the British accent narrator to boost GE points 😊

[Orwellian Wiress]

42 minutes ago, greg_orangecounty said:

I predict I will cry if Pacific Crest does not make finals.  

PC is getting so much unwarranted hate this year. I saw them at Rose Bowl and they were so cool. I love the show concept and props.

[mjoakes]

14 minutes ago, Orwellian Wiress said:

so much unwarranted hate this year

Just my usual objection to overuse (and casual use) of the word hate. I don't see much genuine hate on here at all.

[CrownBariDad]

15 minutes ago, Orwellian Wiress said:

PC is getting so much unwarranted hate this year. I saw them at Rose Bowl and they were so cool. I love the show concept and props.

They had so much momentum coming out of the Everglow season and then COVID hit and 2 HUGE steps back -- momentum-wise. Totally out of their control.

And I love this year's show concept. Without the COVID break, this might have been Everglow Pt 2.

But the season is still young. (I keep telling folks that, but no one listens.)

[ediblewaffles]

 

Tier 1. Blue Devils/Carolina Crown/BAC

Tier 2. Bluecoats/SCV/The Cavaliers

Tier 3 The Cadets/Blue Stars/Mandarins

Tier 4. Phantom Regiment/Blue Knights/Crossmen

Finals Bubble: Colts/The Academy/Madison Scouts

 

After Broken Arrow and especially after San Antonio (which will be my first DCI show 😁) there might be some movement, but in general I think this is how everything will play out come finals night.

[Den8uml]

3 hours ago, CAtenhut said:

My predictions... And if you don't like them, I don't care. 😂 It's just an opinion, so calm down in advance. 😁

1. BD - Classic BD with another superior overall package.

2. Carolina Crown - Another amazing brass book, guard is also solid, and the show is just fun and feels like a party! They could overtake BD.

3. Bluecoats - Solid but just can't get into the show. Way too much narration that really doesn't add to the progression of the show like I would want (See Cadets).

4. SCV - So many great moments but they are struggling a little putting it all together. Love the ballad, but they really need to work on that closer.

5. Boston - They are clean and do everything really well right now, but I feel like it's disjointed and lacks content/demand. They could get into 3rd or 4th tho.

6. The Cadets - Another show with A LOT of narration, but I feel like their narration complements the show really well. And I get the old school Cadets feels when I watch them, which is awesome.

7. Mandarins - Aggressive, fun and innovative. I know a lot of people did not like the vocals in the beginning, but he seems to be improving with every show and I think he'll convert people by August.

8. Cavies - I really like their show early on, but I worry their Covid issues might have stunted their growth a bit. Only time will tell.

9. Phantom - Like the Cadets, I am getting the old school Phantom feels again this season. Solid show that could've put them higher in other years, but I just think everyone is just so strong this year.

10. Blue Stars - I haven't really cared for BS recently and just can't get into this show. They do everything consistently well, but I just don't see them finishing as high as previous years.

11. Crossmen - They are improving show after show and they should be there Saturday night. 

12. Colts - Because I need this underdog to make it. They're small this year but have a great sound and are performing well. They could fight BK and Crossmen in August, but we'll see if their size and lack of content/demand hurts them later. 

13. Blue Knights - they will likely be the 11th or 12th place corps on Saturday, but this is probably the slowest I've ever seen them out of the gate. They have always found a way to put it together in August, so we'll have to wait and see.

I respect your opinion. I will say tho that Boston’s content is very challenging from drums to brass to guard so I’m not sure why you think that it isn’t.  Also can’t picture BS finishing so low! They are crushing it. One thing I really agree with is Mandarins surprising everyone and doing amazing things, maybe even finishing 6th when All! said and done! 

[Reed]

11 hours ago, radiosteele said:

At this point in the season, there are some expectations and predictions coming to fruition and a few unexpected developments literally no one could have seen coming. I want to address those first. 

1) The tenacity of excellence - Blue Devils, as expected, has a younger group, but I did not expect their program to be so purely entertaining and accessible. It connects with the audience in a manner I have not felt since "Metamorph" and "Phenomenon of Cool". Their brass book has motifs of 80s and 90s Blue Devils' iconic jazz and their visual program has considerably more straightforward marching than in previous years. Their staff is willing these performers to win with a fantastically programmed show. If they do not place first, it will be because Boston, Crown or the Bluecoats earn the championship, not because BD loses. The Devils lose nothing this year. Now, if you think Boston is not going to challenge for the title, please have a look at their color guard and integration of all captions into an organic flowing program. They will be close. 

2) I told you so - So will gloat first before I eat humble pie later. I was very confident that Boston and Mandarins had challenged themselves during the pandemic seasons, and they would benefit from it. Boston is sitting in 3rd-4th in score rankings currently and the only way it will change is if Bluecoats or BD max out their shows before finals. Boston and Crown will rise in that case. The Mandarins had an aggressiveness in their exhibition year I had not seen from them before, and their meteoric rise was in no jeopardy of fizzling out. I knew they were going up the ladder but I did not know how far. Now.....potentially...6th? What a great result that would be from a great corps with this years' most entertaining show. I also noted that the Colts could break out, and they are scary close to jumping over Blue Knights to lock down 12th place. They have the show to do it. Right now, they seem as if they are still trying to nail everything and are not organically performing the show like it is instinctive. Once they gel and let the heart & determination take over, watch out. 

3) I TOTALLY blew it - Phantom. Ya killin' me Smalls. All captions are going as expected, EXCEPT for visual proficiency. Phantom is trailing Blue Stars by THREE POINTS in visual proficiency alone, finishing last in their contests this weekend, out-marched by Madison and Colts!!! If not for that one subcaption, Regiment would be sitting in 7th right now. I never figured for one second these kids would struggle with marching after an amazing effort last year. That being said, finals is still a lock of PR, but I have to back up off that top-6 finish prediction a bit. Some reasons for optimism: they were hit very hard by COVID that cost them 4 days, and this early in the season, the visuals are still very cleanable. They will stage a comeback on visuals. Some drill rewrites and helping these kids with circles and boxes should help them quite a bit. They should finish above Crossmen if they max out. Madison Scouts, from a programming perspective, have done a 180 from their aggressive, powerful exhibition show last year and gone more avant-garde, which doesn't fit them. They are struggling in GE and visual. I predicted they were a shoo-in for finals - it doesn't seem that way now. 

 

Prediction reset

I will probably do one more round of this analysis in early August, but here's how it is shaping up now:

1) Carolina Crown

2) Blue Devils

3) Boston Crusaders

4) Bluecoats

5) Cadets

6) Mandarins

7) Santa Clara Vanguard (I love you both Jim & Dawn Reed; your percussionist son is NOT the problem here - the pit is marvelous)

😎 Cavaliers

9) Blue Stars

10) Phantom Regiment

11) Crossmen

12) Colts

*****************************

13) Blue Knights

14) Troopers (they're just dirty right now - their show is fire)

15) Madison Scouts

16) The Academy

17) Music City

18) Pacific Crest

19) Genesis

20) Jersey Surf

 

Until next time, squirts............

Nice post... Not a SNOWBALL'S chance you're anywhere close to that prediction for SCV, but ok... (Yes, SCV has work to do, but I have faith with the talent in both performers and staff they have, they'll figure out a way to stay in the medal mix.)

 

Love ya, man.  Long time, no see!

[saxfreq1128]

5 hours ago, Orwellian Wiress said:

PC is getting so much unwarranted hate this year. I saw them at Rose Bowl and they were so cool. I love the show concept and props.

I don’t see much hate for PC! 

Unless you’re referring to those of us who were traumatized by Oompa Loompas. But that’s different 

Edited July 12, 2022 by saxfreq1128

[karuna]

7 hours ago, Cappybara said:

Ah, so the judges ARE apparently going to adjudicate the app as well? Interesting 

The judges will judge the show on the field.  If the app gets the audience participating -- even contributing -- then yes it can indirectly create effect.    Additionally there are (unconfirmed) reports that the CrownLive app interfaces directly with Competition Suite    But those are just rumors!

Go Crown!

[radiosteele]

3 hours ago, Reed said:

Nice post... Not a SNOWBALL'S chance you're anywhere close to that prediction for SCV, but ok... (Yes, SCV has work to do, but I have faith with the talent in both performers and staff they have, they'll figure out a way to stay in the medal mix.)

 

Love ya, man.  Long time, no see!

I hope you're right. If they can snap the visual program in place they'll bounce back. Percussion gets the title this year - no one is touching them.