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I have analyzed all historical scores since 2003 and have calculated average first score and average high score to predict final score based on the average increase from first to last.  2018 is the last time I predicted, but will do 2022 when all corps has a first score. I like data and it is just fun for me.  Interesting, when sorting on avg clean the top corps always clean the most from first score to high score.  The average clean is an average of the last 6 years, not the last 19 years.  That is why adding that to first score doesnt equal the average high or prediciton

  avg low avg hi avg clean Prediction Actual difference Predicted Rank Actual Rank Difference
Santa Clara  71.43 94.75 26.11 96.738 98.62 -1.882 2 1 1
Blue Devils 74.03 98.05 26.61 97.438 97.35 0.088 1 2 1
Blue Coats 70.35 94.6 26.27 95.749 96.95 -1.201 4 3 1
Carolina Crown 70.51 95.09 26.36 96.42 95.5 0.92 3 4 1
Boston  68.31 90.34 25.13 92.354 94.31 -1.956 7 5 2
The Cavaliers 70.95 95.09 25.74 95.266 93.54 1.726 5 6 1
The Cadets 70.98 95.31 25.11 91.932 92.22 -0.288 8 7 1
Blue Stars 64.18 88.25 26.12 87.192 90.05 -2.858 11 8 3
Blue Knights 65.61 89.58 25.14 92.82 88.925 3.895 6 9 3
Mandarins 60.57 80.1 23.72 86.17 88.66 -2.49 12 10 2
Phantom Regiment 68.91 93.06 24.54 88.192 87.7 0.492 10 11 1
Crossmen 65 85.61 24.45 88.508 87.25 1.258 9 12 3
The Academy 63.65 83.28 21 82.382 84.56 -2.178 15 13 2
Colts 62.39 84.26 23.3 85.048 84.21 0.838 13 14 1
Madison Scouts 65.71 87.38 22.31 84.45 82.99 1.46 14 15 1
Troopers 59.84 81.42 21.11 82.148 81.79 0.358 16 16 0
Edited by Drumcorpdad62
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Holy smoke. That's a lot of number crunching. Most of it looks real close between predicted and actual finish. 

Poor Troopers. Gone nowhere in all that time? 

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Interesting stuff. I enjoy number-crunching too. How did you get the Prediction and Actual columns? Is Prediction = The 2018 low score plus the Avg Clean?

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30 minutes ago, Sensioto said:

Interesting stuff. I enjoy number-crunching too. How did you get the Prediction and Actual columns? Is Prediction = The 2018 low score plus the Avg Clean?

Correct, I took the first score and added the average clean.  the average clean is the last 6 years of increase from first score to high score.  I did High score as half the corps score goes down in finals.  what is interesting is if you do the last 19 years instead of last 6 years there has been an increase in cleaning over time. In other words, corps are getting better at getting better

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37 minutes ago, OldSnareDrummer said:

Holy smoke. That's a lot of number crunching. Most of it looks real close between predicted and actual finish. 

Poor Troopers. Gone nowhere in all that time? 

Yeah very hard to move up.  Most of it is the low first score.  Interesting that you have corps like Mandarins who jumped up a lot over the last 5 years.

 

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Very interesting work. Thanks @Drumcorpdad62.

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I am tempted to do an analysis on the impact of date of first performance on final placement.  In other words, do Corps that start competition earlier in season do better than Corps that start later?  Example this year would be Troopers starting competition 13 days after Pacific Crest & Academy, 10 days after Crossmen & a week after Colts & Madison.  Will they benefit from an initial score rewarding them for a complete & relativity clean show?   Or will it hurt them because they need to be wedged in somewhere & other Corps are more familiar to the judges.  Other years it would probably be other Corps that started earlier or later.  

Edited by IllianaLancerContra
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