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Final analysis: prediction vs acutals based on starting score


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As always, statistics doesn't apply to the arts, too many variables.  But some surprises  1.  Blue Knights only improved 19 point off first score, 6 points below their 5 year average.  was it the show, the ability of the MM, cleaning?  who knows but definitely an anamoly.  2. Boston had the biggest improvement over their 5 year average +2.745.  3. Crown had the highest starting score, but again performed below their average -3.46.  4.  Finally, Troopers. I guess starting 9 days later then other corps made a difference.  Their first score was 65.76, 6 points higher then the average of their last 5 years.  their 2022 increase was the same over the last 5 year average so that high start defintely helped.  I have all scores going back to 2002 in an excel spreadsheet if anyone likes this kind of stuff. My son is heading into the High school marching band world so I will not keep up this spreadsheet any more.

BTW, I predicted Blue Devils score exactly,  just didn't get rank correct. (And yes, I corrected the Bluecoats name)

  avg clean Starting Prediction Actual Actual score Predicted Rank Actual Rank Difference Clean  Clean Diff
Blue Devils 26.61 72.1 98.71 98.75 0.04 2 1 1 26.65 0.04
Boston  25.13 69.45 94.58 97.325 2.745 5 2 1 27.875 2.745
Bluecoats 26.27 71.7 97.97 97.325 -0.645 3 2 1 25.625 -0.645
Carolina Crown 26.36 73.45 99.81 96.35 -3.46 1 4 -3 22.9 -3.46
Santa Clara  26.11 69.95 96.06 95 -1.06 4 5 1 25.05 -1.06
The Cadets 25.11 69.15 94.26 92.913 -1.347 6 6 0 23.763 -1.347
Blue Stars 26.12 65.15 91.27 92.775 1.505 9 7 2 27.625 1.505
Phantom Regiment 24.54 65.75 90.29 90.675 0.385 10 8 2 24.925 0.385
The Cavaliers 25.74 67.6 93.34 90.6 -2.74 7 9 2 23 -2.74
Mandarins 23.72 65.3 89.02 90.013 0.993 11 10 1 24.713 0.993
Colts 23.3 62.35 85.65 87.45 1.8 15 11 4 25.1 1.8
Troopers 21.11 65.76 86.87 87.425 0.555 13 12 1 21.665 0.555
Crossmen 24.45 63.35 87.8 86.925 -0.875 12 13 1 23.575 -0.875
Blue Knights 25.14 66.7 91.84 85.788 -6.052 8 14 6 19.088 -6.052
Madison Scouts 22.31 64.5 86.81 83.725 -3.085 14 15 1 19.225 -3.085
The Academy 21 61.45 82.45 82.2 -0.25 16 16 0 20.75 -0.25
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