Final analysis: prediction vs acutals based on starting score

[Drumcorpdad62]

As always, statistics doesn't apply to the arts, too many variables.  But some surprises  1.  Blue Knights only improved 19 point off first score, 6 points below their 5 year average.  was it the show, the ability of the MM, cleaning?  who knows but definitely an anamoly.  2. Boston had the biggest improvement over their 5 year average +2.745.  3. Crown had the highest starting score, but again performed below their average -3.46.  4.  Finally, Troopers. I guess starting 9 days later then other corps made a difference.  Their first score was 65.76, 6 points higher then the average of their last 5 years.  their 2022 increase was the same over the last 5 year average so that high start defintely helped.  I have all scores going back to 2002 in an excel spreadsheet if anyone likes this kind of stuff. My son is heading into the High school marching band world so I will not keep up this spreadsheet any more.

BTW, I predicted Blue Devils score exactly,  just didn't get rank correct. (And yes, I corrected the Bluecoats name)

	avg clean	Starting	Prediction	Actual	Actual score	Predicted Rank	Actual Rank	Difference	Clean	Clean Diff
Blue Devils	26.61	72.1	98.71	98.75	0.04	2	1	1	26.65	0.04
Boston	25.13	69.45	94.58	97.325	2.745	5	2	1	27.875	2.745
Bluecoats	26.27	71.7	97.97	97.325	-0.645	3	2	1	25.625	-0.645
Carolina Crown	26.36	73.45	99.81	96.35	-3.46	1	4	-3	22.9	-3.46
Santa Clara	26.11	69.95	96.06	95	-1.06	4	5	1	25.05	-1.06
The Cadets	25.11	69.15	94.26	92.913	-1.347	6	6	0	23.763	-1.347
Blue Stars	26.12	65.15	91.27	92.775	1.505	9	7	2	27.625	1.505
Phantom Regiment	24.54	65.75	90.29	90.675	0.385	10	8	2	24.925	0.385
The Cavaliers	25.74	67.6	93.34	90.6	-2.74	7	9	2	23	-2.74
Mandarins	23.72	65.3	89.02	90.013	0.993	11	10	1	24.713	0.993
Colts	23.3	62.35	85.65	87.45	1.8	15	11	4	25.1	1.8
Troopers	21.11	65.76	86.87	87.425	0.555	13	12	1	21.665	0.555
Crossmen	24.45	63.35	87.8	86.925	-0.875	12	13	1	23.575	-0.875
Blue Knights	25.14	66.7	91.84	85.788	-6.052	8	14	6	19.088	-6.052
Madison Scouts	22.31	64.5	86.81	83.725	-3.085	14	15	1	19.225	-3.085
The Academy	21	61.45	82.45	82.2	-0.25	16	16	0	20.75	-0.25