I'm pretty worried right now...

[LegalEagle50]

well Ryan, I feel your pain.. I understand what you're saying, but the price spike of a few years back came sort of out of the blue.. what with the attack on American soil and all.. and while prices are ridiculously high, we've also had them hovering there for quite a while.. they got up there last year for a while, too.. so.. the smart money is that corps took that first ridiculous spike in stride.. took the hit and got over it.. but the second spike was sort of like a wake-up call.. and I'll bet the corps who are run by responsible BOD's (which, I'd have to say these days, is pretty much everybody.. not all, but pretty much) all planned ahead and budgeted for more fuel funds a while back.

I don't sense a lot of urgency like I remember seeing a few years back.. and certainly nobody is laying back on their lounge-chairs saying, "aaahh.. this is the life.. $3.50 a gallon.. aaaahhhh".. but it seems like they've had an opportunity to plan.. and most corps took it.

Stef

i'm assuming initially you are referring to 9/11. what price spike after after it? saw a few stations on the news attempt to do the price gouging thing but it wasn't a nationwide epidemic by any means. prices stayed steady on the right side of the country at that time.

as far as prices hovering near what they are now . . . maybe out in the mid-west that is the case but they are steadily climbing 10-15 cents a week here, definately not hovering. we're about to top the 5 day Katrina jump at any moment and i don't see it just lasting 5 days this time.

the only corps that were affected by Katrina prices last year were senior corps. you refer to corps taking the first spike in stride. which spike are you referring to? IF you are going to 9/11 no one was out on tour then. your timeline has me a bit confused.

[ChicagoFan]

Understand my choice underlines my extreme discomfort with the dire direction our society has taken. The offensive labels reflect my total contempt for the road we are on and my disappointment in this country for voting the way it did the last time around.

In the midst of one of your posts, you decry the treatment afforded gays at the hands of the present administration then go on to preach tolerance and acceptance yet, you offensively brand anyone who does not share your viewpoint as ignorant and hateful:

I have enough faith in drum corps people to believe (hope) that none of you drank that Kool-aid, but enough malliable, ignorant, hateful, fearful, lemmings did drink the Kool-aid.

In effect, you are intollerant of those whose beliefs are dissimilar to your own. I do not intend to hijack this topic or enter into a debate about politics on a discussion board devoted to drum corps but I might suggest that your extremely biased and closed-minded attitude does little to further your arguments .

[Amil Muzz]

In effect, you are intollerant of those whose beliefs are dissimilar to your own. I do not intend to hijack this topic or enter into a debate about politics on a discussion board devoted to drum corps but I might suggest that your extremely biased and closed-minded attitude does little to further your arguments .

OK take my overemotional sentence out about the "lemmings", got a real argument? Got some facts?

My main point is this: because of the poor leadership we have and the precarious state of the economy, there will not BE an activity in the near future. At least the one I know. That is the real point of how all this relates. As we've been going back and forth today did you see what the market did today and why?

This could happen: We are all out on tour, say there is a hurricane (there was one around San Antoino time last year) or a forecast of one, gas shoots up like rocket. Or Israel follows thru with their threat and go into Iran. We just might have to call the game. This is the fragility we find ourselves in. Prove me wrong. I do not want to be right about this...

[mbird139]

OK take my overemotional sentence out about the "lemmings", got a real argument? Got some facts?

My main point is this: because of the poor leadership we have and the precarious state of the economy, there will not BE an activity in the near future. At least the one I know. That is the real point of how all this relates. As we've been going back and forth today did you see what the market did today and why?

This could happen: We are all out on tour, say there is a hurricane (there was one around San Antoino time last year) or a forecast of one, gas shoots up like rocket. Or Israel follows thru with their threat and go into Iran. We just might have to call the game. This is the fragility we find ourselves in. Prove me wrong. I do not want to be right about this...

What facts have you presented? None! Just your leftist wacko conspiracy theories (blame the Joooooos) and "what if?" scenarios (San Antonio hurricanes) and incorrect statements (US is a democracy). You are not even close to being right about the economy....not even close. Oh, and here is a news flash for you----the stock market goes up and the stock market goes down. Wow!

[Amil Muzz]

What facts have you presented? None! Just your leftist wacko conspiracy theories (blame the Joooooos) and "what if?" scenarios (San Antonio hurricanes) and incorrect statements (US is a democracy). You are not even close to being right about the economy....not even close. Oh, and here is a news flash for you----the stock market goes up and the stock market goes down. Wow!

I am kind of enjoying this...

Yes, in fact there was a hurricane in the vicinity of South Texas last summer. It was actually cool in Midland, TX last summer because of that hurricane. It was for a time forecast to come ashore in Texas but moved toward Mexico... Fact #1.

I think I was pretty clear...I am not a leftist, at all. Actually, the US is a republic (electoral college), not a democracy...fact #2...the market has lost 300 points in the last week because of nervousness over energy costs and worries over signs of inflation, fact #3.

Fiscal responsibility used to be a cornerstone of the Republican Party, used to be along with small gov't and keeping the gov't out of your business. No tinfoil here, dude...just a disenfranchised former republican.

"What if.." Smart planners are accounting for and trying to off set their costs this summer. Talk to a corps director and and you'll find that these scenarios are apart of the planning. You'll also find trepidation out there, for good reason.

Not even close about the economy? Which part? I know you probably do not hear about this stuff on Faux News. Wht do not you look up what Warren Buffet had to say about the strength, or lack there of the dollar. If you Googled him I am sure you'll find his take on it.

Hey...do not take my word for it, do some reading, educate yourself. I do not mean to get personal, but if you think that America is a pure democracy, and not the democratic repubilc it is than I would say you need to check some of this stuff out for yourself.

[mbird139]

I am kind of enjoying this...

Yes, in fact there was a hurricane in the vicinity of South Texas last summer. It was actually cool in Midland, TX last summer because of that hurricane. It was for a time forecast to come ashore in Texas but moved toward Mexico... Fact #1.

I think I was pretty clear...I am not a leftist, at all. Actually, the US is a republic (electoral college), not a democracy...fact #2...the market has lost 300 points in the last week because of nervousness over energy costs and worries over signs of inflation, fact #3.

Fiscal responsibility used to be a cornerstone of the Republican Party, used to be along with small gov't and keeping the gov't out of your business. No tinfoil here, dude...just a disenfranchised former republican.

"What if.." Smart planners are accounting for and trying to off set their costs this summer. Talk to a corps director and and you'll find that these scenarios are apart of the planning. You'll also find trepidation out there, for good reason.

Not even close about the economy? Which part? I know you probably do not hear about this stuff on Faux News. Wht do not you look up what Warren Buffet had to say about the strength, or lack there of the dollar. If you Googled him I am sure you'll find his take on it.

Hey...do not take my word for it, do some reading, educate yourself. I do not mean to get personal, but if you think that America is a pure democracy, and not the democratic repubilc it is than I would say you need to check some of this stuff out for yourself.

You misunderstood my post. Yeah, I know the US is a constitutional republic. The parentheses were the ideas/comments you made.

[bluecoats88]

w/Stp:

1.21 jigawatts will get a corps anywhere. :P

and anytime, with that we would be able to settle the debate in the other thread about the Cavies Frameworks show and the Cadets Zone show. Just jump to 2005 and pick up the Cadets, then jump to 2002 and have them compete head to head with Cavies.

Just thing of the tour of champions DCI could schedule. Actually having all of the championship corps competing head to head against each other to see whose championship show was better.

[sburstall]

Someone with a brain, thank goodness.

Exxon has 70% of their business coming from other countries, while only 30% comes from the USA.

They are making ~8% profit on their sales.

IBM makes 8% as well.

(ponders)

DOWN WITH IBM!!!

What's Microsoft profit margin?? :P

What's George Dixon's profit margin?? :P

What are the Cadet's profit margin?? :P

Edited May 18, 2006 by sburstall

[81regiment]

You know, I'm usually pretty level-headed about things (riiiiiiiiiiiiiight TURNER!), and I enjoy my weird sense of humor and general positive outlook on things. But I've been pretty "in tune" I would say over the last few months with the international current event scene, and well, in a nutshell, things ain't looking good for us when it comes to fuel costs. If you rely on mainstream media for your ONLY source of news, you're not seeing a bigger picture.

I did a paper on Peak Oil for my English Comp 1 class. Currently, we consume 6 barrels of oil for every 1 barrel of oil we find. It's actually a really interesting topic and I would suggest those who are interested do some research of their own on it.

Ryan...thanks for shedding a little light on this. The media does NOT do a good job of covering all sides - just the ones that cause squawking for their own agendas. My advice when it comes to the media...turn it off and gear up for this summer.

First, some cursory analysis is in order before we resort to political spouting and finger pointing. Carl306, sorry that I'm quoting you, but when someone says there is a 6-to-1 ratio imbalance and it is taken at face value to explain why the world is out of sorts, I gotta stand up and call BS. I'm not attacking you - your post raised my interest in how far apart perception and reality really are, but several subsequent posts here have raised my ire for they are either 1) plain wrong, or 2) accusatory with no substantive evidence to support the claims.

Let us be clear on one thing: Free market economics have ZERO respect for political leanings. NONE. ZERO. ZIP. It is immutable that regardless of socio/geo/eco/political leanings, markets will thumb their nose at a biased view of the world and drag naysayers down the street until they "get it." Global commodities markets are just about as free as they come. Here's a news flash for everyone: No single individual or group of individuals sets market prices. WE ALL - MEANING BUYERS AND SELLERS COLLECTIVELY - SET MARKET PRICES FOR COMMODITIES!! Trying to control the economic motives of interested parties has been tried. Show me where it worked, flourished, and raised standards for all.

Thought so.

Second, FIND and PRODUCE are two very different things when it comes to petroleum economics, or any other economic enterprise.

We have FOUND a lot more oil than we actually get out of the ground, both domestically and internationally. Global reserves of oil stand at 1.188 trillion barrels.

We consume about 85 million barrels per day globally. If we had full and unfettered access to all of the proven reserves around the globe, there are over 38 years of supply at our disposal. If you want lower prices and/or more oil, stop consuming and/or get out of the way and let 'em drill.

If you want to talk about supply versus demand, demand is indeed growing faster than supply can keep up, so prices rise. Demand is outstripping supply, but nowhere near a 6:1 ratio. The world is both producing and consuming oil at about 85 MM barrels per day, but demand is edging ahead at only a 3-5% pace. So at worst, the 6:1 ratio is more like 1.05:1.

Exploration continues and new oil is found regularly. Reserves are up over 100 billion barrels since 2000. Long live Jed Clampett, but we have long since stopped shooting at the ground with rifles to bring oil to the surface. Visit www.veritasdgc.com and you will see that there is no mention of Jed Clampett, but lots of cool energy exploration technology that Jed would not understand. Have we found all of the oil that there is to find? Show me where the last drop is and I will buy it from you at the current market price. Deal??? :P

In the US, we produce 8.3 million barrels per day, and consume 20.7 million barrels per day. Therefore, we must import over 12 million barrels per day.

Oil production is bottlenecked, both absolutely and relatively. At the last energy cycle peak in 1981, there were over 6000 drilling rigs at work around the globe - there are now less than 3000. Why did drilling activity get cut in half? Because oil prices crashed and the economics weren't so great after all. Being in the oil business sucked for over 20 years. It sucked to be the CEO of Exxon. Cyclical businesses do not maintain their profit margins because high margins attract competition which leads to overcapacity which makes it a crappy business. To paraphrase Rodney Dangerfield, "That's right - it sucked!!"

In the US, since 1981 the mix of rigs has gone from 60% oil and 40% natural gas to 15% oil and 85% natural gas. Gas economics have been much more favorable than that of oil, thus a huge relative investment in gas production. So while total drilling activity is down, most of the mix has shifted toward natural gas.

Today, US refinery throughput is 20.5 million barrels per day. In 1981, we were cranking through 21.9 million barrels per day. So throughput is down over 6%, but demand is up by 25% in the same period. When demand is greater than supply, prices go....UP! It is true that the last refinery opened in the US was in 1979. It will take $3-5 billion to build a brand new refinery. If I was looking at peak margins, there's no way I would commit to undertaking such a capital investment, especially in the face of regulation and environmental insanity. Who has the capacity to build a new refinery? Mom and Pop? Or Exxon?

Third, with oil at $70, Exxon just hit their highest net profit margin in the last 20 years at 10.1%. Chevron net profit margin is barely 8%. Royal Dutch Shell, which is domiciled in The Netherlands, posted under 7%. The software company that runs my computer made a net margin of 31%. The drug company that makes the aspirin I am going to take when I get done writing this response to rampantly absurd "analysis" has a net margin of 25%. ...

If you lean so far to the left that all profits offend you, your ire is misdirected. Try looking here...

How much is the government cut? The combined pre-tax income of just these three companies is almost $45 billion, and they pay a 40% combined tax rate, so you do the math and see how tiny the government take is.

Oh yeah - I forgot federal excise taxes. Take 17% of your pump price for gasoline and 19% for diesel. At an average price of $3.00 a gallon, the government takes 51 cents a gallon. The US consumes 375 million gallons per day. So, government gets $191 million PER DAY at the pump. That's....oh....$70 billion a year, give or take.

Mostly take.

Two years ago last week, oil went thru $40 a barrel for the first time and has not looked back. At today's price of $66 a barrel, that's up 65% in two years. By contrast, the Dow Jones Industrials are up 11%, the S&P 500 is up 16%, NASDAQ is up 16%, the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index is up 38% and the S&P 600 Small Cap index is up 43%. While the stock market does not like inflation, a 65% increase in oil hasn't kept the market from putting up some decent numbers.

Oh...consumer prices are up a whopping 3% in the last 12 months, even with oil up much more than that. Hide the women and children, we're all going to ####.

Before we do, read some Thomas Sowell. Maybe you'll have a better understanding of how the world works...you may not like it, but the market doesn't really care how you feel.

Edited May 18, 2006 by 81regiment

[ChicagoFan]

Chuck, how dare you introduce facts, informed analysis and carefully crafted argument into this forum! Heresay and groundless accusations are much more effective.

Seriously, thanks for a thoughtful, intelligent post.