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First score contest


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You know the game, you have to be drastically better than a group that's perceived of as better to beat them by the smallest of margins.

Not to rain on any parades - but everyone that's commenting on the corps has only seen one of the groups, not two or all four of them.

Still, going with the law of averages:

1) Cavaliers (Cavaliers always open strong, and the name is there)

2) Regiment (2-3 points behind Cavs, for at least this first show)

3) Bluecoats (wildcard)

4) Glassmen

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"You have a very nice corps." -DSA.

:P

A lesson I took to heart. :P

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You know the game, you have to be drastically better than a group that's perceived of as better to beat them by the smallest of margins.

A truer statement was never posted.

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the grinder thoughts..

Ok…for all of you who don’t know, the grinder is a program that I wrote to predict drum corps scores. For those who do, I’m sure you would testify to its accuracy over the last couple years. Because it is based on statistical history, I usually wait a week or two before launching any predictions…but this year I’m taking a crack at the opening shows of the season. Below are the predictions, with some comments about each corps from the pre-season info I have gathered.

June 16th Festival of Brass Oswego Ill

The Cavaliers open their season with their “Machine” show. Promising to offer a “new edge in design”, they try to regain the top spot in DCI. They spend the first month of their season in the middle of the country. Last year they opened with 21 consecutive victories before being overtaken in Indy by the Cadets. You have to go all the way back to June of 2001 to find a show where they finished worst than 2nd. Since the start of the 2000 season, in 197 shows, they have 167 wins, (84.7%), 29 2nds, and 1 3rd, an incredible run. They have to be considered the favorite until proven otherwise, as the grinder makes no adjustments for the programmers’ personal feelings.

The Glassmen will be the first victim, as they do the first of a couple US shows before taking their European tour. This year they are doing Beethoven-Mastery and Madness, (“a dreamscape of 4 unique and independent movements”) Hmmm…remember that 4 movement theme. They would love to post a decent position before heading off to France.

Grinder Predictions:

CAVIES 74.70

GLASSPEOPLE…..67.50

SOUTHWIND……55.85

June17th Pacific Procession Hayward CA

The Devils have no European or narration distractions as they open up their quest for #12, but I really don’t think those were the reasons for last years results. It was a very hard show, and I never felt they had the dead nuts confidence in performance, the trademark of BD Championship years. This year they leave CA in early July, first meet Madison and Coats on the 7th in Debuke, the whole crowd in Indy the 8th, then vs Cadets on the 9th, Cavs on the 10th and 11th. Godfather Part Blue will make DCI an offer they can’t refuse, with a show that will be tough to beat. I look for the confidence to return, as well as BDB to fuel solid promise for the future come August in Madison.

SCV gives us Moto Perpetuo, (another show in “4 movements”), and new director Jeff Pearson and staff coordinator Denise Bonfiglio hope to return them to the top 6. Hard to tell what direction they are heading, but we hope for the best for the red team. They stay in the West for the first month, before meeting up with Cadets and Cavs on July 15th in Denver.

Mandarins are doing Rhythm Nation, a show comprised of 9, yes 9!, separate music titles. They stay in the West until mixing it up in Texas at the end of July.

Grinder Predictions

BD 75.85

SCV 70.55

MANDS 59.65

June 17th Glassmen All Star Show Toledo Ohio

Phantom starts their 50th Anniversary season with their offering of Faust. Sythian Suite, Ave Maria, Piano Concerto and Mahler #2 should provide classic PR style. After having become a top 3 contender over the last 2 years, and a crowd favorite, it will be interesting to see if they can continue their quest. They will spend the first part of the year on an Eastern swing, so we will be able to see them quite a bit. Last year we watched them rehearse at East, and I was surprised to see how little they had to clean/add with so much time left in the year. Not sure what that means, but they didn’t add much to the show the last couple weeks. They need a little more something to get a ring.

Also the first show for the Bluecoats, another up and comer. Look for them to build on last years success with Connexus, another 4 part show, with music by Pat Methany, Benoit Jutras, Don Ellis and Ennio Morricone. Can this talented staff take this corps to the next level? If they beat PR here, and are within 2 of Cavs, look out!

Grinder Predictions

CAVIES 74.25

PR 70.65

COATS 70.20

GMEN 67.75

SWIND 54.95

June 17th Drums Along the Rapids Coon Rapids MN

Madison opens up the season with their Primal Forces show. Probably no chicks in this one. Look for the Scouts to try and put it together for this “home show for finals” season. Gotta wonder if the alumni corps will steal the show in August. I visited their site looking for repertoire information, and couldn’t find anything. They have launched a forum. They will start the season with a win, but their first true test is June 21st, Omaha Nebraska, when they face the Cavs and Coats.

The Colts open for the Charlie Daniels band earlier in the month, before this opening show. Their sight boasts a 90% retention in members and staff from 05 that got 13th place. Their show is Continuum. “Exploring the concepts of time and motion, the Colts move toward a more contemporary sound and look” Not sure that is a good thing. They tour the central part of the country for the first month of the season.

Making their return to Division I tonight are the Blue Stars. Donnie VanDoren leads the design team for The Gift of Freedom show. Surprised to see that their website advertises openings for 6 brass and 2 guard as of June 5th. Welcome back Blue Stars.

Grinder Prediction

SCOUTS 71.10

COLTS 63.40

STARS 59.65

The next grinder post will recap results of these predictions, and give some more for the Cadets, BAC, Carry-a-line-a-corn, and the Xmen. All these corps open their seasons the following weekend in the South.

and for those of you who havent heard of it.. the grinder has been probably about 98% correct in its calculations for the past 3 (or 4?) years.. down to tenths of a point

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Darn it "CIRE". you blew my cover. I was using the grinder

for my prediction about 3 pages back...now their all gonna

know I'm a fraud. I hope you're proud of yourself man! :P

Edited by madalumni
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Cav's- 75.85

Phantom- 73.20

Blue Coats- 70.05

Glassman- 65.30

That's what it is going to be!!! Hopefully...I WANT ALL THOSE QUARTERS!

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