Score Projections for July 5

[vferrera]

rnk corps   last	  pred	 change	rate
1  BD	  83.05	 85.55	 2.50	 0.62
2  CAV	 82.60	 84.35	 1.75	 0.56
3  CAD	 82.20	 84.25	 2.05	 0.73
4  BC	  81.90	 83.05	 1.15	 0.65
5  PR	  80.45	 81.50	 1.05	 0.58
6  SCV	 77.60	 80.60	 3.00	 0.58
7  CRN	 78.15	 79.65	 1.50	 0.80
8  MS	  78.10	 78.70	 0.60	 0.65
9  BAC	 77.15	 78.45	 1.30	 0.56
10  BK	  75.40	 78.45	 3.05	 0.91
11  SPT	 71.45	 75.70	 4.25	 0.64
12  CLT	 73.40	 74.75	 1.35	 0.66
13  XM	  72.40	 74.45	 2.05	 0.98
14  GM	  67.30	 72.35	 5.05	 0.28
15  BS	  70.75	 72.30	 1.55	 0.66
16  PC	  69.30	 70.95	 1.65	 0.74
17  MAN	 66.95	 70.75	 3.80	 0.74
18  CR	  65.25	 69.10	 3.85	 0.55
19  ESP	 64.40	 66.80	 2.40	 0.71
20  SWD	 65.75	 66.40	 0.65	 0.48
21  MAG	 63.20	 64.95	 1.75	 1.07
22  PNR	 60.40	 60.55	 0.15	 0.68
23  CAS	 61.40	 59.00	 -2.40	-0.60

[dciguy01]

Seeing the 'scades in last is just....weird

[oldbandguy]

Seeing the 'scades in last is just....weird

What is weird is the formula that has them dropping to below 60. I aint gonna happen.

[imperial guard 80_82]

You should change your formula to include DCI's "slotting" maching and random number (score) generator.

[dbc03]

You should change your formula to include DCI's "slotting" maching and random number (score) generator.

[OIC]

Woah... the scores are sooo close it's eeerrriieee!

Good job! This formula is very close.

[Zeke]

I'm sorry I just dont see Cascades having a 2 point dive like that, if anything with a few days since Stockton to Rehearse and work on Closer changes and things I see their score moving up.

[4MalletJim]

crap...I thought BAC was doing better than 9th.

[vferrera]

Score are in (except for Salem). How'd we do?

corps   pred	  actual	error
CAV	 84.35	 84.45	 0.10
PR	  81.50	 81.75	 0.25
CRN	 79.65	 78.75	 -0.90
BAC	 78.45	 79.30	 0.85
SPT	 75.70	 75.25	 -0.45
XM	  74.45	 74.20	 -0.25
BS	  72.30	 71.95	 -0.35
CR	  69.10	 68.65	 -0.45
SWD	 66.40	 66.30	 -0.10
MAG	 64.95	 60.45	 -4.50
PNR	 60.55	 61.90	 1.35

If the error is (+), that means the corps did better than predicted, (-) means they did worse than predicted. Looks like Magic had a rough night, but Pioneer did very well.

The median (typical) absolute error was 0.45, so the predictions were generally within about a half point of the actual scores.

I'm in the Eastern time zone, so I'll include Salem tomorrow. Hopefully, Cascades will reverse their trend :)

[Storkysr]

This is a LINEAR PROGRESSION. It's based on nothing more than the trend. It is a primitive tool used in high school statistics and doesn't include any important inatangibles like stability of the organization or history of how they progress. It is only a mathematical excersize that people with too much time on their hands (like myself) would persue.