gellio
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Posts posted by gellio
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The reason for the statistics being the way they are is because these corps consistently have their pick of the litter when it comes to talent. Not because they are judged differently. From an organizational standpoint, they set themselves up to win, and because of their reputations, they draw the talent. If the Cavaliers came out with a crappy book, and the kids stunk up the field, there is no doubt in my mind they would be scored as such. You are rewarded for what you do on the field. Period.
Crown's growth has allowed them to join the upper tier. As an organization, it is up to them to put the pieces together and do something wth that talent. From what I have seen over the past several years, they have proven they are ready for success.
Agreed.
Let's not forget Cavaliers in 1997 - two years off their impressive win, and they get 7th. Or, 1998 Phantom. Or, 1989 Scouts. Judges are professional and judge as they should. We can always disagree with placements when corps are close, but there's no conspiracy, there's no rule that says you have to place within the top 3 before you win, and there's not rule that BD, Cavies and Cadets HAVE TO get high scores.
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I know Gellio is getting upset because he thinks CI implies that Madison didn't "deserve" the win. It doesn't really matter to CI who won in 88. All of the top three had CI so no one was excluded. Gellio, Madison's win was CI-less. Better?
I'm not upset. I don't care what anyone says about the win in 1988. Again, it was a close competition with three great shows. Had we placed 2nd or 3rd, I wouldn't be on here saying we should have won. What 1988 proves is competitive inertia is baloney! We had a good show, talent, and it clicked at the right time. That's it. The fact that we placed in the top 3 before had nothing to do with the win in 1988. Nothing!
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Err...one of the top 3 already had an bad year... and crown still only got 4th. Cavies had one of their weakest shows of the decade (i'd put it just above 2007 though) and crown couldnt beat them. For crown to medal next year, you need one of the perennial top 3 to be VERY off, and you need phantom to drop back down to 5th place territory. It could happen, i just wouldnt bet on it. If i had to put odds on who wins...
Cadets 3:1
BD 4:1
Phantom 5:1
Cavies 6:1
BIG GAP
Crown 25:1
etc...
SCV 60:1
Bloo 75:1
after that...no chance really...
I didnt actually do the math to see if this makes any sense at all, but thats about how I see it. That doesnt mean im predicting this order for finals...
This I can agree with. Maybe not the math, but the logic. I've said many times that beating BD, Cavies and Cadets all in the same year is EXTREMELY difficult. Kudos to Phantom for pulling it off this year. It, however, has nothing to do with CI - it's talent and preparation. That's it.
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This logic is so flawed. 36 years is not a long time when trying to come up with theory that states something is almost absolute. I mean, what if one of the top 3 this year would have not had as good as year as they did, and Crown placed higher than them? (This could have very easily have happened, and everyone knows that). If Crown performed the exact same show on finals night and received third instead of fourth, you say they would have a better chance at winning next year? Really? Just think about that.
And 36 years doesn't mean a hill of beans, considering that since 1972 (it's really 37 years) we have had 37 championships, and only 5 of those were not won (or tied) by BD, Cavies, Cadets or Santa Clara (1972, 1975, 1988, 1991 and 2008). It has much more to do with these four corps being consistent at the highest level, then this "so-called" CI.
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(Ask yourself this: Why DIDN'T Crown get 3rd this year? I have lots of thoughts on it...I'd like yours, and others.)
Three reasons:
1. Phantom Regiment was better than Carolina Crown
2. Blue Devils were better than Carolina Crown
3. Cavaliers were better than Carolina Crown
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The argument of CI is plain wrong because of it's main conclusion:
"The main conclusion of CI is "No corps can win without first coming in 2nd or 3rd in a prior year."
This is an absolute statement, and says nothing about chance or likelihood. Are you going to sit there and honestly tell me that Crown or Bluecoats or any other corps have a 0% chance of winning if they have never finished in the top 3?
I would definitely agree that their chance is lower because of history, but it being 0% is ridiculous.
Does Vanguard or Madison Scouts have a better shot at winning next year than Crown?
Exactly.
I still do, and will for a while, always believe BD, Cadets and Cavies have the best chance of winning. It's statistics. There's only been 9 years in DCI's history were won of these three haven't won, and Vanguard won 5 of those. It has nothing to do with CI. It has to do with the talent and programming of those organizations - getting the best of everything. I would put my money on one of them winning, and I would not put money on any one else winning (were I betting), but I think the whole CI argument is extremely flawed.
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True
False. You're even contradicting yourself here, and at the same time misrepresenting CI. CI claims that no one who has not WON will not win until they first make it into the Top 3. But if you actually read ALL of http://www.drumcorpsplanet.com/forums/inde...howtopic=107285 you'd know that. Also, hwo can all of that progress end up being coincidnece? I'm lost on that. What Crown has achieved until now is no coincidence. Someone had to come in 4th...Do you think the judges were ready to put crown ahead of Cavies (yet) even though most of DCP prolly thinks they should have? Nope. Not their turn. Yet. It's building. They're earning street cred. Now they have to be EVEN BETTER next year, JUST TO REMAIN IN 4th PLACE, trust me. Oh, and they have to hope everyone else gunning sucks a little.
you also said: "Phantom did it this year, and that's great. It has nothing to do with competitive inertia."
Phantom proves CI, with their performances at Finals this year. It was a full-stadium effort, b/c PR would NOT have done it, had the audience not DEMANDED it. The fact that PR had won before, and had many years of success ALLOWED the judges the mental freedom to let it happen. Had Crown been in the exact same position as PR, IT WOULD NOT HAVE HAPPENED. Oh, and the judges finally realized that the product BD had out there was akin to Cadets: Amazingly performed cute garbage (IMO
)What? Again - something's not clicking upstairs in your little head.
It *IS* a coincidence that no one has ever won without being in the top 3 previously. How did I contridict myself? You need progress to move up in the ranks. Many corps have done it, and yes, all of them have placed in the top 3 before winning. THAT is coincidence. I never said anything about Crown's achievements being a coincidence. I believe in a post above I sited the reasons why I think Crown is now a championship caliber corps. Hard work and PROGRESS!! Lots of progress!! They may have only placed 4th, but they had a championship caliber product, executed at a championship caliber level. I cannot think of any other 4th place corps in DCI History I can say that about. They had a championship caliber brass line, a championship caliber guard, a championship caliber visual package, a championship caliber musical package, and a darn good drum line. The best 4th place corps EVER, without a doubt, and better than many a 3rd place finishers IMO.
Phantom's win doesn't prove CI. They had IMO the overall best show this year, and the members executed in at the highest level. Their past successes, while obviously playing a part in getting them to the level they were at this year, were not the reason the judges gave them the title. And, I disagree - if Crown had been the best corps on the field on finals night, they would be the 2008 World Champion! I have more faith in the judging community, obviously.
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Umm, they won before, and they goot HUGE brownie pts in 1988 with that trip overseas, and a few other things. Almost everyone agrees SCV should've won that show. Judges made up for the error in 1989 (when everyone agrees PR shoul've won!) Madison had all kinds of built-in, insider CI in 1988. It's the only explanation for their win that year. I was there, and I don't recall a thing about Madison's show, FWIW.
Keep trying!
Do you ever actually read what you write before you post? The above statement proves that something inside your head isn't properly functioning. It is absolutely absurd that you think a panel of professional judges would deprive the entire Regiment organization of a win in 1989 to appease for some mistake they made the year before. Do you not see how ridiculous such a statement is?
Re 1988 Finals: I'd take the word of a qualified panel of judges over your word any day. I will say it sure as hell didn't seem like everyone in that stadium agreed that SCV should have won on finals night in 1988. We had NO CI in 1988. No one, even going in to finals week thought we'd win. No one. Brownie points? Where were the "HUGE brownie" points when we came back from Europe and got 4th at DCM? Where were they when Phantom and Star beat us a handful of times after DCM? Where were they when Garfield beat us the only time we saw them before finals? Where were they when SCV and BD beat us all year up until finals? 1988 is a perfect example of judging done correctly. IMO, there were three championship caliber shows that year, all executed on a championship level. The numbers, when added up, fell in our favor. Sure you can say BD should have won that year. Sure you can say SCV should have won that year. Just like you can make a chase for another corps winning in almost every year, including 1989, 1996 and 2008.
Please - think before you type and read your posts before hitting"Add Reply" - you may see how little sense your make.
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wow sorry to state the obvious for everyone here, but you're wrong. the guy you quoted for your reply hit the nail on the head. its not necessarily not having faith in the judging community as its just the consistency of how they filtered the corps as the season progressed. come finals week, there are really about 3-4 corps every season that MIGHT (high emphasis on might) have a shot at winning a championship. the biggest jump we ever saw, was a corps in 4th place semis did as high as to tie for a title finals night....and ironically enough that was the same corps who came in seeded 4th at quarters this past season who prevailed to win.
but to respond more to your statement, even if crown performed the best that night they still wouldn't have won in 2008....maybe placed one placement higher or maybe scored a bit closer, but they would not have won. their show design did not have the same caliber and demand that the top 2 had. BD and Phantom just had much more sophistication in their show design (not saying Crown's show was bad by any means).
We can disagree on Crown's design.
Competitive Inertia is PROGRESS. Progress in obtaining and retaining highly qualified staff. Progress in retaining members, and improving their abilities. Progress in recruiting new, more highly-talented members. Progress in designing better shows. Progress in executing more difficult shows better. Progress in moving up the competitive ranks. It's PROGRESS.
The fact that no one has won who was not previously in the top 3 is COINCIDENCE!!!!
I mean, come on, the fact that the OP is using Pioneer to try and back up his weak argument is proof right there. Of course, Pioneer isn't going to win next year. Of course, no one in their right mind would think that. It would be impossible for Pioneer to improve THAT much over one season.
Winning finals is tough. Beating BD, Cadets AND Cavies on finals night is tough. They are were they are for many reasons - many which I stated above. Phantom did it this year, and that's great. It has nothing to do with competitive inertia. It has to do with, AGAIN, those things mentioned above.
I'm sorry, but 1988 Scouts thwart the whole competitive inertia theory in a single blow. I think we had two members who were in the 1981 corps. Every other vet had only placed 4th at the highest (1985). We were coming off mid-level seasons (1986 and 1987). No one "in their right mind" would have ever thought coming into the 1988 season that we would have a snowballs chance in hell of winning. But, we did. We had talent. We had great staff. We had a well-designed show. We executed that show on a very high level. It had nothing to do with this so-called competitive inertia. The pieces just fell into place. 1989 was extremely different.
Right there- you're theories dead. Peace out!
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The judges create spreads in order to group the corps into littel buckets, like "These 3 corps have a shot for the title: BD, PR, CAV" "These 2 corps are #### good but really have no shot: CAD, CC" "These two corps are pretty good, might even have some top 3 captions: Bloo, SCV."
This statement is absurd. You must have no faith in the judging community. Had Crown performed the best Saturday night, they would have won. Same with anyone else in the top 12. Give me one instance where it was blantantly obviously that a corps that should have placed higher was boxed in in a lower placement. You can't.
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Did you even read the CI article? Based on all of these statements you've made, I'm going to say you haven't. Go back, read it, and try to understand it. Your post is full of fail.
I have and it's dumb! The 1988 Madison Scouts had no competitive inertia. We were no better off than the 1988 Star of Indiana.
The reason corps like Cadets, Cavies and BD are consistently on the top is because of talent (staff and members) and programming. THAT'S IT!!!!! Crown is now on their level from that standpoint. Period! The reason Madison won in 1988 was programming and talent. The reason Star rose is programming and talent. The reason Garfield rose is programming and talent. The reason the Bluecoats rose is programming and talent. Should I go on and on?
Your theory is heavily flawed. The 2009 Carolina Crown will start the season in a MUCH better position than the 1988 Madison Scouts, 1990 Cadets, 1994 BD, etc....
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I'll let that slide...np.
Lots of subjection in your "analysis," which I take issue with. Also, and most importantly, it's been shown over-and-over again that comparing scores means NOTHING. Rank is all that matters in DCI. Note that Bluecoats also finished 4th once (2006), but the others have not. That adds more credence to the "Glass Ceiling" metaphor of CI than your mention of scores and spreads. Spreads mean NOTHING, except in the eyes of the judges, who have to "get it right" when RANKING the corps "properly." The judges create spreads in order to group the corps into littel buckets, like "These 3 corps have a shot for the title: BD, PR, CAV" "These 2 corps are #### good but really have no shot: CAD, CC" "These two corps are pretty good, might even have some top 3 captions: Bloo, SCV."
etc, etc...see where I'm going? You seem to be implying that the judges actually thought Crown had a shot in 2008! And therefore, they have an even more legit shot in 2009!
1.325...how many corps can fit in that spread? If 0.025 is the smallest increment, then every single point has room for 40 corps. There are 53 "slots" in 1.325. There aren't even 53 corps anymore.
If you read my original CI post carefully, you woudln't be making these statements, and I don't have time to keep educating you.
1990 Was the beginning. They've been doing everything right since then. 2008 is a culmination of 20 years of very hard work and perserverance. Now it's time to REALLY see what they're made of. If they can disprove CI, I'll be the first one to post here that CI has been officailly debunked...or at least had its first anomoly!
Until then, your cross-examination is nowhere near as compelling, sorry.
You don't have to educate me on anything. I think my argument is spot on. There is NO SUCH THING AS COMPETITIVE INERTIA.
The Bluecoats may have made 4th in 2006, but that same show would have finished 7th in 2007 and probably 6th or 7th in 2008. There is no comparision in what was achieved between the 2008 Carolina Crown and the 2006 Bluecoats. PERIOD! It's championship caliber programming and performing vs. top 5 programming and performing. The bottom line is Carolina Crown is now a championship caliber corps. None of the other in and out of the top 5 corps you mentioned EVER were championship caliber corps. Nor would any of those shows place as high as 3rd any other year.
Can we have a discussion without throwing insults please?
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It would be an amazing thing. Corps would actually get more credit for playing demanding material. Brilliant. This would be really good in the open class world.
Now....
Who assigins the start value? I would love to be a fly on the wall in that conference room. Every corps plays a harder book then the rest of the corps. Just ask the designers! Every year the drunkest fan at finals gets an spot on the panel for the next year. The possibilities are endless.
Gets you thinking........
I've been thinking about this for the past two weeks too. Corps should somehow get credit for demand. The problem is - starting values would be changing day to day as corps shows change - how would a new starting value constantly be re-assigned.
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Blue Devils, 1998. Because nothing says "Classic Blue Devils" like show tunes and Russian ballet.
Just baffling.
Wow! I LOVED 1998 Blue Devils. It made me what BD to play classical music SOOOO bad!
I also loved Phantom 1986
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Competitive Inertia doesn't dispute that. It does dispute that it will be in 2009.
It may be 2009 - it may not be 2009. We will know on finals night 2009. But, the top 5 from last year all have an equal chance to win the title in 2009. Period! There is a reason they are all part of the top 5 and a tier up from 6th place down. The Cadets faltered due to programming in 2008 IMO. Maybe Hoppy's got it through his head that his programming choices don't work. A conventional drum corps show would be most appropriate for the Cadets in 2009.
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Good factual analysis.
It's just way too early to predict champions for the future. I'll make my decision in late July.
Definitely. But when you look at what has happened in Ft. Mill, if Crown keeps doing what they are doing, they will no doubt get there. If it's not broke - don't fix it (Crown).
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Read all about it here, and then tell me they still have a chance:
http://www.drumcorpsplanet.com/forums/inde...howtopic=107285
Crown is certainly on the right track when it comes to building CI, but the best they can hope for next year is 2nd or 3rd.
I haven't done the research, but my instinct is that they'll probably GO DOWN next year. I have no prediction as to how far, but I'd put money on it. Many examples of corps finisnhing 4-6 and never reaching the top 3. (Glassmen, Crossmen, Boston, Bloo). Crown is much more likely to finish 4-7 than to join the elite top 3. Granted, if they're REALLY SOMETHING SPECIAL, they might get a 2nd or 3rd place finish, to set them up for 2010, but they WILL NOT WIN NEXT YEAR NO MATTER HOW GOOD THEY ARE.
Also, Cadets are slotted to win next year. Book it.
Competitive Inertia is dumb.
1. Bluecoats, Crossmen, Glassmen and Boston have never scored a 96.8. Nor, have they ever even been remotely close to the top spot come finals night. Crown scored a 96.8 - 1.325 down from Phantom finals night. Any other year and Crown would have likely been top 3. What Crown did in 2008 (in terms of design and execution) was far superior to any product ever put out by Bluecoats, Crossmen, Glassmen and Boston. Those four were top 5 corps, not championship caliber corps. 2008 Crown was a championship caliber corps.
2. In 1988 we won the title, after finishing 6th in 1987 and 7th in 1986. The last time Madison was top 3 was 1981. Are you saying we somehow had competitive inertia in 1988 just because we won the title in 1975? If so, that proves how flawed the competitive inertia argument is.
3. In 1994 BD won the title (with a huge score) after placing 4th the year before and never really challenging for the title since 1988. How'd BD have competitive inertia in 1994?
4. The Cadets have risen from 4th and 5th place numerous times to win the title.
5. The Cavies rose from 4th in 1994 to win the title in 1995.
6. Regiment nearly won in 1989 (with a huge score) after placing 6th in 1988 and 10th in 1986. Explain how they had competitive inertia in 1989?
The bottom line - Crown is now a championship caliber corps. They have the staff, the talent, the design and the execution. All top tier. Those are the necessary ingredients. I have no doubt that 2008 was the beginning of big things for Crown.
Crown will be our next new World Champion.
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Crown is my new SCV - my favorite corps outside of the Scouts. I have loved Crown since 2001 (save 2002) and their '08 show was amazing. What a great season. I am really going to be pulling for them to win it all next year, and I believe they will be the next new corps to win a world title. Certainly, this year was a remarkable achievement. No other corps challenged the top guns like they did this year. I believe they are only going to get better.
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1984 is definitely one of them. 1989 was not (although everyone from 1st - 12th scored way too high IMO). Blue Devils scored at 95.9 at 4th place, where as Garfield scored a 96.1 for 4th in 1988.
The other one has to be 1982, since BD had the highest 1st place score to-date, and that score held up until 1984. I can't think of any other year it could be w/o going back and looking at all the scores.
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Okay, I'll bite.
What are your top 3 PR shows?Mike
I'll bite too.
Show's I've liked better than 1996: 1984, 1985, 1987, 1989, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1997, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008.
Show's I thought were executed better: 1989, 2005, 2006, and 2008.
1996 was an awesome show musically (execution and design), but was very very weak in terms of visual design IMO. Love to listen to it, don't watch it!
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2008!
+ Better brassline (or at least on par)
+ Better drumline
+ Better guard
+ MUCH MUCH MUCH better visual program
+ More demand
+ Overall a much better designed show.
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YES!!! I agree. Regardless of who the corps director is (and I respect Pearson and all he's accomplished), please get back to the entertaining, standing ovation shows that corps like Blue Stars, Glassmen, Bluecoats, Carolina Crown, and Phantom Regiment did in '08.
I would love nothing more than to see the crowd on their feet, yelling, throughout a Vanguard performance! I feel the most crowd pleasing show they've had this decade was 2004. I heard (I wasn't there) that Finals 2005 was pretty awesome too. Aside from those, their greatest crowd response was this past summer.
BRING BACK THE MAGIC!!!
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1991
(missed most of the 90s, sorry)
2004
Thank you! That's what I'm saying. I remember the first time I saw the '85 show (at finals housing site) and it blew me away. I can say that for many Vanguard shows, but I'm sorry '06-'08 just didn't do it for me. Great drill/decent music - nothing that really grabbed me. Nothing compared to the old Vanguard.
I think Vanguard thinks they have to take a new direction. Not true. You can still move forward and be innovative, while creating that magic, while being entertaining, while playing good classical music. I'm sorry, I am a HUGE classical music lover, but in my opinion modern and contemporary classical music is passionateless. I loved the Canyon, but that's about it. Short Ride is cool too, but still nothing compared to the greats.
AND - I doubt the Vanguard organization views a 7th place finish as being good enough. Others have mentioned the problem we see year after year after year with the Vanguard coming out of the gate behind with huge ground to make up. WHY WHY WHY if you have 3 weeks of everydays is your complete show NOT on the field first show? That's unacceptable. Why can't these knuckle-heads (the staff) understand they that puts them at a big disadvantage.
Firing JW was the DUMBEST thing this organization has ever done IMO.
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SCV definitely came from behind in 1978, eventhough they tied Phantom in Prelims (and really tied if Finals too). They were 4th at DCI Midwest and DCI East, and I believe BD beat them by like 2.5 the week before finals, which was considered "the kiss of death".
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INT has announced their 2009 design staff.
Here is the announcement put out by their Board of Directors:
"After a thorough evaluation of where we have come from and what we want our corps to become, INT has decided to travel in a new direction for the 2009 season. It has become clear that our shows were not holding the attention of the spectators. In fact, some have labeled INT a "hot dog corps". The 2009 season holds promise of a new era of both artistic and competitive success, while at the same time striving to become an audience favorite.
INT is proud to introduce Jim Prime as our new brass arranger. Mr. Prime has a long and storied history in the activity, and has agreed to come out of semi-retirement to help us achieve our goals. Joining him on the music design staff, Tom Aungst and Neil Larrivee will write the battery and pit books respectively. These two gentlemen have worked together previously for many years, and are considered to be among the best percussion writers in DCI.
Complementing the noted designers on the visual side, INT welcomes Myron Rosander as our new drill writer. Mr. Rosander's drills have been in the vanguard of the activity. Joining him, Adam Sage, most recently with 2008 DCI Champion Phantom Regiment, will head up the color guard design. To complete the visual metamorphosis, INT will also be wearing new state of the art uniforms designed by Michael Cesario, who will also function as a program consultant.
Stay tuned for auditon information for the 2009 INT Drum and Bugle Corps".
Dumb.
2009 Could be Carolina Crown's year
in DCI World Class Corps Discussions
Posted
Absolutely. But, it was championship caliber. I saw this out of Crown in 2006. I felt their overall programming was right up there with the very top corps (ok - maybe not percussion programming). What wasn't on that level was execution. They improved on programming and execution in 2007 and 2008 IMO. Will they improve further in 2009? I hope so, but there are no guarantees. However, 2008 Crown was without a doubt the best 4th place corps ever.