hostrauser
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Posts posted by hostrauser
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1 hour ago, Chief Guns said:
Question with Open Class.
Is this saying that SCVC who scored 72+ last night...........will only improve one point the rest of the season............same with BDB who scored 71.700 last night, will only improve a half a point the remainder of the season?
Gold who hasn't performed since Stanford due to Covid and Illnesses, and is 3-0 vs SCVC.......and 2-1 vs BDB in head to head competition, won't even crack 70 by season's end?
1. Possibly the biggest weakness the algorithm has is time off. The longer a corps goes between performances, the harder it is for the algorithm to accurately make forecasts. Gold and the Cavaliers have the two rankings with the largest margin of error right now.
2. That said, I believe SCVC was 0-fer against BDB until this past weekend. They made almost a 3-point swing in just a week (from almost 2 points behind BDB at Stanford to almost a point ahead at Bellflower). The early season volatility in Open Class is even more extreme than in World Class.
3. The SoCal scores this past weekend were badly inflated, and judges will leaving spacing margins at Quarterfinals. Corps surge past 70 (or even 80) only to fall behind that mark at QF almost every year. The scores for 14th and lower so far this season are quite a bit behind what we usually saw in pre-Covid days. Are those corps just a little dirtier than normal after having a couple of years without a full tour? Will they clean up and make a surge closer to the Top 12/13? We'll see what happens.
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29 minutes ago, crownisking said:
Nah, fans were way more polite in 2017. Finals 2007 is the last time I know of. Things got reeeally ugly that year and I think some fans did some self reflecting after that.
Which is a shame, because those 2007 Cadets kids could really play. I felt the design let them down: the narration--instead of supplementing--replaced some of the necessary GE development that would have made that a championship level show.
I know all of the BD and California homers around me in Pasadena were REAL nervous that night in 2007, because semifinals had been close and (musically) The Cadets were absolutely incredible at Finals.
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Things are starting to settle down, and the early season scoring volatility is fading away. It will be interesting to see how the Cavaliers score in their first show back. But basically, I think the Top 4 are locked in (those four corps in some order at Finals) as are the Top 10. I think we'll have an interesting battle between Crossmen, Blue Knights, and Colts for the last two spots in finals. Someone is getting left out. As of today, it projects out like this...
98.573 Carolina Crown 98.167 Blue Devils 97.175 Boston Crusaders 96.246 Bluecoats 94.444 Santa Clara Vanguard 93.183 Cavaliers 92.108 Cadets 90.685 Blue Stars 89.131 Mandarins 88.183 Phantom Regiment 84.222 Crossmen 83.675 Blue Knights 83.094 Colts 79.795 Madison Scouts 79.057 Troopers 78.684 Music City 76.371 Academy 75.018 Jersey Surf 73.512 Vanguard Cadets 72.137 Blue Devils B 71.443 Spartans 71.159 Pacific Crest 69.649 Gold 69.373 Genesis 66.609 Columbians 65.229 River City Rhythm 64.917 The Battalion 62.706 Golden Empire 62.465 Colt Cadets 60.401 Louisiana Stars 56.814 Heat Wave 56.118 7th Regiment 54.503 Les Stentors 50.589 Blue Devils C 49.811 Raiders 48.534 Impulse -
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23 hours ago, FTNK said:
As one top 5 corps design team member told me (and this was way back in 2008): “Music is irrelevant”
It's been obvious for a long, long time.
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I would love to see a drum corps tackle this work, especially the first movement. The last 80-90 seconds of the first movement I think could easily be written to be a DCI closer.
It's Hindemith, though. You'd better have some guts to dive into the deep end here.
I can never remember how to embed video because I only do it once a year or so. "Pittsburgh Symphony" by Paul Hindemith.
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6 hours ago, kkrepps said:
What happened to Golden Empire, 7th Regiment, and Impulse? They were on week 1.
See, I had them flagged because they didn't perform this week, and then lost track of that after the power outage. Thanks for the reminder. They have been added.
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6 hours ago, skevinp said:
Power? I always assumed you used an abacus.
I can't use the abacus to post to DCP, Kevin.
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An unexpected thunderstorm power outage caused a bit of delay, but I didn't forget! The early season scoring volatility continues:
97.922 Carolina Crown 97.323 Blue Devils 96.043 Boston Crusaders 94.623 Bluecoats 92.554 Santa Clara Vanguard 91.313 Cavaliers 89.235 Cadets 87.272 Blue Stars 85.829 Mandarins 84.349 Phantom Regiment 82.514 Crossmen 80.028 Blue Knights 78.460 Colts 76.213 Madison Scouts 75.624 Music City 75.167 Academy 72.698 Troopers 70.960 Jersey Surf 68.552 Pacific Crest 67.405 Spartans 66.117 Gold 65.744 Blue Devils B 62.986 Vanguard Cadets 60.612 River City Rhythm 58.571 Columbians 58.189 Colt Cadets 54.005 Heat Wave 53.443 Golden Empire 52.812 7th Regiment 45.806 Raiders 44.326 Impulse 44.085 Blue Devils C -
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21 hours ago, Super Don-O said:
Hostrauser is the Nate Silver of DCI.
I'm still trying to figure out if that's a compliment or an insult.
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1 hour ago, Barneveld said:
I don't have any problem with your predictions. Just curious how you came up with them. Was it a formula, hunch, personal preference?
Thanks for posting this!
Formula. It's based solely on the scores issued so far and the judges who issued them. Despite the "ranking" being a finals-week extrapolation, it is not technically a prediction of the future.
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1 hour ago, Chief Guns said:
This BD Honk has to keep it real. The 2005 Yowza Movement was 4th place. So BD has medaled 25 of the last 26 DCI competitive seasons dating back to 1994.
I had literally purged that show from my memory. You know, that awful, terrible show that still scored 95.250.
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Just when you thought it was SAFE to go back into drum corps...
*cues Jaws theme*
...Hostrauser is here to show you that everything I know about drum corps is wrong!
> Wait
> Phil, that's supposed to read "everything YOU know about drum corps is wrong!" You were supposed to edit this! What do I even pay you for?
> What?
> Oh. Right. I don't pay you. Wait. Then what are you doing in my house?
Only a fool would try to make predictions based on the first few shows of the season. But I am that fool! I expect the spans will tighten up in the next few weeks, but (unsurprisingly) the Blue Devils have come out hot and look to be the corps to beat. I think it's safe to pencil them in for a 27th consecutive medal.
98.317 Blue Devils 96.434 Carolina Crown 96.243 Santa Clara Vanguard 95.988 Bluecoats 94.339 Boston Crusaders 91.561 Cavaliers 89.443 Cadets 89.167 Mandarins 88.466 Blue Stars 88.052 Phantom Regiment 85.801 Blue Knights 82.586 Crossmen 81.684 Colts 81.371 Academy 80.833 Madison Scouts 77.863 Music City 76.465 Pacific Crest 74.540 Spartans 73.534 Gold 72.631 Jersey Surf 61.536 Golden Empire 60.563 River City Rhythm 59.951 Colt Cadets 59.405 7th Regiment 50.421 Impulse -
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We'll see. The game was already dying before the pandemic. I'm just not sure we'd have the participation level to make it worthwhile.
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1 minute ago, Weaklefthand4ever said:
Spirit has responded. I will say that as I stated earlier, it was very measured and certainly not specific enough.
*fart noise*
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DCI's response, per usual, is an absolute joke.
I truly and honestly wonder how many more years DCI will exist before it implodes like the dying star that it is.
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On 9/2/2021 at 4:09 PM, Continental said:
I still don't understand how this was achieved and I know it's been done on many entertainment shows.
I don't see that anyone ever actually answered your question. There is a velcro strap or button snap on one (or both) shoulder(s). The light blue is the "inside" layer and the brown was the "outside" layer. They are sewn together at the waist. The guard releases the attachment on the shoulder and the top half of the dress falls down, revealing the blue underneath. The brown on top blue beneath section that had been covering waist-to-shoulder before is now the blue on top brown beneath skirt from the waist down.
Here are examples you can watch to see how it works.
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11 hours ago, Ghost said:
Stopped off in Tuba, AZ, on our way home and it was like we stepped back into last Summer. Masks required, most fast foods were drive-up only, and the gas station we used had a door monitor checking temps and only allowing so many people in at a time. Tuba has the largest Navajo population within Navajo Nation and they may be experiencing an increase in people with C19, or maybe they're not interested in vaccines.
Early in the pandemic, COVID spread like wildfire through the Navajo population. Their response is how everyone else's response should have been. 91% of the Navajo Nation is now vaccinated with at least one shot, the highest rate in the world. Yet they continue to take these precautions, because they are smart.
All Native American populations taken as a whole make up the most vaccinated demographic in the United States.
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19 hours ago, Smug Trumpet Guy said:
I thought the only person pushing for boringwinds was he who must not be named.
The last woodwind proposal I'm aware of was introduced by a member of DCI's Board of Directors, Kathy Black. It passed the initial voting caucus 19-12 before being defeated in the final vote.
Woodwinds in drum corps is an inevitability. DCI wants it, and multiple member corps do, also. It's only a matter of time.
https://www.dci.org/news/2020-dci-rules-congress-proposals-at-a-glance
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I was introduced to drum corps in the early 90s, and I still love the way the music books were arranged in that decade. But man, I go back and listen to the CDs from that decade and all of the horn lines, even the best of the best, sound AWFUL. Those G bugles were just an abomination. Moving to Bb brass was the best move DCI ever made. It was immediately apparent by 2002, when the Cavaliers horn line that year (with its wonderful intonation) sounded 1,000 times better than any previous horn line in DCI history. And brass has just gotten better and better ever since. More on that in a minute.
The 2000s are probably the best decade for visual design, to me. Michael Gaines, Myron Rosander, Jay Murphy, and Jeff Sacktig (amongst others) achieved the perfect blend of marching drill design and theatrical staging that made drum corps so unique. Since then, I feel the marching arts have evolved a bit too far into the theatrical staging arena. Unquestionably, what is being performed now is ridiculously difficult, but I miss the days of 120+ kids blazing across the field at 200+ bpm while playing. The 2000s were the apex for that. I also liked the percussion design and performance the best in the 2000s, but I'm not a percussion expert.
The 2010s, by far, have been the best decade for brass performance. It's not close. The corps just keep getting better, and better, and better. Corps in the 10th-15th spots are sporting brass lines that would have been Top 5 in prior decades. The emphasis on musicality over raw power has disappointed some older generation drum corps fans, but to me it's a thing of beauty. The technical ability of today's performers is just insane.
So yeah, my favorite decade? Every decade I've experienced, pretty much. I don't expect that to change.
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On 6/16/2021 at 12:30 PM, Poppycock said:
That’s not true! There is not equal justice under the law, at least not in Cali. You can be canceled at the drop of a hat.
[citation needed]
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9 hours ago, Jeff Ream said:
Honestly....i don't see a change until someone gets seriously hurt.
We're already long past that point. Candice Lee of the Blue Devils suffered a severe spinal injury in 2014 (after falling from one of the ladder props, wasn't it?) and temporarily had no movement from the neck down. She spent almost a week in the ICU and had several months rehabilitation, but I believe she was able to walk onto the field with the corps at Finals that year.
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Sun Prairie has a fantastic newer stadium, just be aware that it's off of Main Street and not actually at Sun Prairie H.S.
Cedarburg has a decent smaller stadium, but as others have said you'll be in direct sun the entire time. Cedarburg is actually a nice little touristy town for such a close suburb. Lots of boutiques and cafes on Washington Avenue.
As I live closer to Cedarburg, that's probably where I will go. But if I had to travel from a distance to either site I would choose Sun Prairie.
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Lotta great memories in that video. 2:16-2:24 remains my all-time favorite DCI drill move, any corps.
Looks like the uniform mock-up is at 2:44 of the video.
Hostrauser's 2022 DCI Power Rankings - Week 3 (7/18)
in DCI World Class Corps Discussions
Posted
South of the Grapevine/San Bernardino Mountains is Southern California. Anything in the San Joaquin Valley is Central California. Northern California starts with the SF Bay Area and the inland delta region, so around Stockton and North of that. My qualifications: Born in San Diego and raised in Sacramento. Spent about 17.5 years total in Sacramento region and 20 in San Diego region (two stints). So I like to think I'm bringing both the NorCal AND the SoCal perspective on this.