hostrauser
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Posts posted by hostrauser
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23 minutes ago, supersop said:
SCV probably should have shared Gold in 87 and 88 .... and maybe 89. Giving PR their first win in 89.
SCV probably should have won outright in 99. Same for PR in 96. (funny how I find clear winners on years with TIES and the opposite on years with close battles)
The smaller judging panel and weird scoring system that started in 1988 is probably the worst of all systems.
Full agreement on all of these points. However the list I could make of changes to the Top 3 would be it's own thread, so I will exhibit some rare self-control and (mostly) only focus on corps 4th and below that should have gotten medals.
1994 Cavaliers, bronze - Here's a weird one: Phantom was better visually but Cavaliers were better musically. I love Phantom's super-original show (the only DCI show ever to not have any color) but the Cavies had a great show too, and got hosed by the effect judges.
1995 Blue Devils, gold - I know what I just said, but this is still the most egregious screw job I've seen in DCI
1995 Madison Scouts, bronze - Should have taken Musical Effect by at least half a point over every other corps that year. Apologies if any of them are reading this, but 1995 Finals judges: you were on crack.
1999 Cadets, bronze - they were flat out better than the Cavaliers in every area except percussion performance.
2007 Phantom Regiment, bronze - The exact reverse of 1994. As sloppy as Phantom was visually, they were that much better musically than the Cavaliers. Cavaliers should have been 7th musically at Finals. But, it's DCI. Visual accomplishment is always credited better than Musical accomplishment.
2015 Cadets, bronze - Yeah, I know, I'm a Shostakovich homer. Maybe I'm being sentimental because this was the last great Cadets show.
2016 Carolina Crown, gold - *whispers* Relentless was the best show of 2016, sorry not sorry
2019 Carolina Crown, bronze - come on, now. Doesn't music matter AT ALL any more? 5th highest music score OF THE DECADE (and arguably should have been higher).
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I reserve the right to cancel the season if not enough people sign up.
That said, I have half the schedule mapped out already. My goal is to have everything up and running for sign-ups the week after Memorial Day.
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Back on topic, you will never, ever convince me that the Blue Devils shouldn't have won in 1995. They were undefeated all season until Championships week, when judges started "finding" issues that weren't there the prior week. Cavaliers' brass was horrendous (they received a ridiculously generous Finals score) and their show had very little musical GE (great two-minute opener, great two minute closer, seven minute snorefest in the middle). Cadets were a visual mess and had a fifth place worthy show design.
When I auditioned for BD in 1998 there were several vets who were STILL grumpy about 1995. You ask any Devil who marched in the mid-to-late 90s and I'm sure they will say they are certain they should have had a four-peat from 94-97.
Also from NorCal that year, Vanguard had a show that took me a long time to warm up to, but is now one of my all-time favorite Vanguard shows and one of their most under-rated. Loved Dave Carico's arrangements folding Shostakovich's Symphony No. 11 (and others) into a very dark take on The Nutcracker.
1995 is my all-time favorite DCI year. I know all 12 Finalist shows by heart, even 25 years later. Crossmen wearing shakos and doing dark symphonic music (not their style but a great show nonetheless). Crown's debut with sloppy-but-massive-GE "Stormworks" show. Phantom playing all-Rachmaninoff. Scouts with maybe the best show in corps' history (and certainly setting DCI records for baby-throwing).
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20 minutes ago, kevingamin said:
I need to find the Glassmen Finals VHS. It’s the only recording which includes the pre-show version of Little Fugue. All other recordings start with the official start of the show. I had one but lost it years ago.
Pretty sure I have every year from 1987-2002 on VHS. Let me do some digging.
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2 hours ago, ftwdrummer said:
yesplz
Please help spread the word. I can start planning in May and get things set up in early June, but the season will be canceled if we don't get enough participants.
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2016 Carolina Crown - "Relentless"
2017 Santa Clara Vanguard - "Ourobouros"
2018 Santa Clara Vanguard - "Babylon"
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With the cancellation of the 2020 DCI season, do we still want to run a DCPI season this summer? It would operate like the prior "off-seasons" we used to do: several years' worth of prior DCI seasons would be available for caption selection, and scores would be randomly generated based off of those.
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2 hours ago, cixelsyd said:
No.
But just speaking hypothetically, what if some extent of economic/societal damage caused more deaths than the worst-case virus scenario? Should no one even ask that question?
We should be willing to suffer only modest and acceptable civilian casualties in order to keep Applebee's open.
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9 minutes ago, Jurassic Lancer said:
Michigan is stay at home effective midnight.
Wisconsin will announce shelter-in-place tomorrow. Minnesota will announce today or tomorrow.
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On 3/22/2020 at 11:52 AM, hostrauser said:
The chances of this are zero. Just one week ago, on March 15th, the United States had 73 total COVID-19 deaths. Today, just one week later, the death toll is now 388 (the chart below is USA numbers only and hasn't been updated yet today). We've had almost 200 deaths the past 48-72 hours. Italy reported 793 new deaths yesterday alone. Spain reported 372. That's where we will be by the end of the month.
Globally, 12% of all COVID-19 fatalities have been reported in the past 24-48 hours. This is a GLOBAL pandemic that is accelerating rapidly and we are only at the very, very, very beginning of it.
This is not going to be over in three weeks or even three months. There will be no DCI in 2020. I 100% guarantee it. There almost certainly will not be an MLB season, either. The chances of having an NFL or NBA season next Fall/Winter are about 50/50 right now. Alea iacta est. The near future is already determined, regardless of those who refuse to acknowledge it.
USA's death toll was 388 just 24 hours ago. It's 504 right now (+116).
The global death toll was 13,696 just 24 hours ago. It's 16,313 right now (+2,617).
I stand by what I said. DCI is hopefully working with the corps to try to soften the blow as much as possible, but there is no way we have a season this summer.
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1 hour ago, garfield said:
And, haven't we done all of these things? Doesn't that change the contentions of the article and the timeline the author proposes?
But, what's most bothersome about this line is that the story relies on the qualifications and experience of the guy who puts together the ABC News podcast CoronaCast for its validity.
I hope you can appreciate my cynicism.
*sigh*
1. Yes, for the most part, but about two weeks later than we should have. No, it doesn't. Those were the minimum actions needed to bring the duration down to ~12 months.
2. You understand that this is the Down Under ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) and not the Stars and Stripes ABC (American Broadcasting Company), right?
3. No, I don't. It's baseless. But I see now that I could quote dozens of doctors from dozens of countries and you'd still be unreasonably skeptical. So all I can do is just hope that you stay safe and wash your hands frequently.
I myself am not a medical expert. But my wife's last job was in "small pharma" at a pharmaceutical research company, and as a result we personally know several research physicians including two infectious disease specialists. I am merely trying to parrot what they are saying. I have yet to come across a bona fide expert on infectious diseases that thinks this will go away any time soon. Most of them are of the opinion that the most likely long-term outcome of all of this is for SARS-CoV-2 to become a seasonal disease just like influenza, and that once we DO have a vaccine we will need to get it every year (like influenza). And that even after this initial pandemic coronavirus has the potential to still kill 20,000-30,000 Americans a year, just like influenza.
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2 hours ago, garfield said:
Actually, we're at about day-81. I believe we're much closer to the end of it than we are the beginning of it.
Global pandemics (for diseases without vaccines) in the 20th Century lasted 12-18 months, and that is what they are predicting for SARS-CoV-2. The first hospitalizations in Wuhan were in December 2019, so this is month 4. If we're lucky, this will all be over by the start of 2021. But it could easily last until mid-2021.
I'm afraid not a single infectious disease expert on the planet shares your optimism.
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8 minutes ago, Ghost said:
I believe Phantom Phan is correct.
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3 hours ago, DAvery said:
And I would be very worried if I was in Spain or Germany right now. While behind in the number of days since the first 100 cases have been reported, the trajectory of the cases per capita in Germany (5 days behind Italy) and Spain (10 days behind Italy) is eerily similar.
Same with USA (14 days behind Italy).
Buckle up.
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18 minutes ago, garfield said:
Yep. And what if confirmed cases peaks by April 15 and by May 1st everyone is back to work?
The chances of this are zero. Just one week ago, on March 15th, the United States had 73 total COVID-19 deaths. Today, just one week later, the death toll is now 388 (the chart below is USA numbers only and hasn't been updated yet today). We've had almost 200 deaths the past 48-72 hours. Italy reported 793 new deaths yesterday alone. Spain reported 372. That's where we will be by the end of the month.
Globally, 12% of all COVID-19 fatalities have been reported in the past 24-48 hours. This is a GLOBAL pandemic that is accelerating rapidly and we are only at the very, very, very beginning of it.
This is not going to be over in three weeks or even three months. There will be no DCI in 2020. I 100% guarantee it. There almost certainly will not be an MLB season, either. The chances of having an NFL or NBA season next Fall/Winter are about 50/50 right now. Alea iacta est. The near future is already determined, regardless of those who refuse to acknowledge it.
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On 3/19/2020 at 8:50 AM, TwoValves said:
Just for some perspective.
For all of the talk of percentages who have a mild case vs serious case, and widely conflicting predictions about the mortality rate of this virus, and how incredibly fast and loose it spreads etc. etc. Let's look at a number that no one ever mentions: How many people DON'T get the virus vs. what percentage DO.
In China, where most will agree it was at its worst, there has been a total of around 81,000 cases in a country of 1.435 Billion people. That means only 0.000056446% of the population actually got the virus, and 80% of that had what are considered "mild" cases.
Sure, if you trust that the Chinese government has been completely honest and forthcoming with all of their statistical reporting. And if you do, please let me show you this bridge I have for sale.
Let's put it another way: overall global fatality rate for SARS-CoV-2 (all age groups) right now is around 3%. Assume 1% of America gets infected over the next six months. Roughly 350,000,000 people in America x 0.01 infection rate X 0.03 fatality rate = roughly 100,000 deaths. The problem with very large numbers like national populations is that even small percentages add up in a hurry. Anyway, Italy reported 624 deaths TODAY ALONE. The USA will be in that boat in 10-14 days.
Back on topic, 0.000056446% is about the same percentage chance I would give for there to be any DCI season at all. Major League Baseball (a much bigger fish than DCI) isn't even considering starting THEIR season before July at this point, and it's extremely possible there will be no baseball season in 2020.
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2 hours ago, Quad Aces said:
One thing I don’t understand (and this is an honest question - no trolling)...
Why is the reaction now different than when H1N1/Swine Flu was around in 2009 - 2010?
H1N1 was more deadly, yet the reaction wasn’t anywhere close to what is happening now.
Not trying to be political either, just an honest question.
Two major differences:
H1N1 was an influenza variant. Which meant that some portions of the population already had at least partial immunity, and the extant influenza vaccines and medications had at least some effect on treating the infected. COVID-19 is a novel (meaning "new") coronavirus. It is a mutation so unlike any other coronavirus known to man that no one on the planet has any immune antibodies for it, and there are no vaccines or drugs designed to treat it (yet).
COVID-19 is much more contagious. In infectious disease research there is something called an R0 ("R naught") number, that measures/estimates how many new people get sick from contact with an infected person. The R0 rating for the 21st Century H1N1 outbreak was 1.4-1.6. The R0 rating for the "Spanish Flu" H1N1 outbreak of 1918-1919 was 2.5-3.0. The R0 rating for COVID-19 is being estimated at 3.0-4.0 right now. This disease spreads VERY easily and is VERY durable outside the human body (initial research shows COVID-19 viruses surviving for up to 3 hours in air and up to 3 days on certain surfaces). Or to put it another way: if a disease with 10% mortality but a low R0 infects 500,000 people you'll end up with 50,000 dead. But if a disease with only 1% mortality and a high R0 infects 100 million people you end up with 1 million dead.
(Side note: the disease with the highest known R0, i.e. the most contagious disease we have discovered, is measles with an R0 value of 18. Followed by pertussis/whooping cough with an R0 of 16. Always get your vaccines, people.)
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It's still early, but don't expect this to go away. By April/May I think there will need be serious discussions in Indianapolis about cancelling the 2020 DCI season.
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34 minutes ago, Tommeee said:
This media-fueled hysteria is the biggest overreaction to anything I’ve ever seen in my lifetime. The reaction is just way out of line from anything we’ve seen before.
This sucks and I’m beyond depressed with all this talk.
You absolutely have no idea what you're talking about and you look foolish. Every infectious disease expert on the PLANET is in agreement that we are just cresting the lift hill of this roller coaster. The terrifying ride is about to begin.
From Carlos del Rio:
QuoteA few thoughts after hearing Trump: at this point, we are past containment. Containment is basically futile. Containment efforts won’t reduce the number who get infected in the US. Now we’re just trying to slow the spread, help healthcare providers deal with the demand peak. Social distancing is critical now to "flatten the curve", to lower the peak of the surge of demand that will hit healthcare providers. And to buy time, in hopes a drug can be developed. How many in the community already have the virus? No one knows. We are in mitigation now. We are currently where at where Italy was a week ago. 40-70% of US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months. After that level we will start to get herd immunity. Unlike flu this is entirely novel to humans, so there is no latent immunity in the global population.
Mortality is deceiving. Assume 50% of US population infected, that’s 160M people infected. With 1% mortality rate that's 1.6M Americans dying over the next 12-18 months. Death rate varies hugely by age. Over age 80 mortality could be 10-15%.
I conclude with four things I am certain now: 1. it’s going to get worse before it gets better; 2. we'll be dealing with this for the next year at least; 3. Our lives are going to look different for the next year; 4. This too will be over.
Who's Carlos del Rio? He's the executive associate dean for Emory School of Medicine at Grady Memorial Hospital, the largest hospital in Atlanta, GA and one that works closely with the CDC.
Source: https://twitter.com/CarlosdelRio7/status/1237921805903564800
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1 hour ago, IllianaLancerContra said:
CDC Data as of 29 Feb says in the US of A there have been 34,000,000 cases of influenza this (2019-20) season, 350,000 hospitalizations, and 20,000 deaths.
But, as a society, we are used to that 'background noise (sort of like the thunderous goo from the synthesizers)'.
When the current Gov. of New York and Pres. of US are saying the same thing (keep calm - this is not the ebola virus), maybe we should listen?
Using those figures, the fatality rate for this year's influenza has only been 0.06%, which is below the usual death rate for seasonal influenza.
The current numbers from China, Iran, and Italy are painting a much more frightening picture. For the age group 70-79 the calculated fatality rate for COVID-19 is 9.8%. For ages 80+ it is 18.0%. Thankfully, the death rate for children and infants is almost zero. But this particular coronavirus is proving exceptionally lethal to the elderly. There are 50 million Americans aged 65 and over. If just 1% of them contract coronavirus we are looking at ~50,000 deaths. This will largely be in addition to, not instead of, influenza deaths. The fatality rates will come down as humanity gets better at identifying the disease and flagging asymptomatic carriers, but it will still be shockingly high for some age groups.
Plus, there is a definite (and justified) fear of the unknown at play. Influenza requires larger water droplets to transmit. Thus, flu can be spread by the large water droplets in coughs or sneezes, but not the smaller water droplets in breath/exhalation. Does COVID require large water droplets, too? We don't know yet. How, exactly, virulent is COVID? We don't know yet. How long does the COVID virus survive on surfaces like doorknobs and tables? We don't know yet. We do know which drugs treat influenza-caused pneumonia the best. Will these drugs be as effective against COVID-pneumonia? We don't know yet. Will the processes and procedures in our healthcare system that are already in place for influenza be as effective against COVID? We just don't know.
The cancellation of public events and current operational lockdowns occurring across societies right now are certainly very cautious, but also prudent. The goal is to SLOW the spread of the disease as much as possible, to prevent healthcare systems from getting overwhelmed (nurses and doctors will get sick, too, and will be forced to avoid work, potentially stressing a healthcare system at the worst possible time). There is a massive difference in the survivability of an epidemic when 10 million people are infected over an eight month span as opposed to 10 million people getting infected across six weeks.
This will be a marathon, not a sprint. Don't panic, but be concerned, and take the necessary precautions.
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1 hour ago, Jeff Ream said:
So what’s the deal?
I believe the delay is due to George Hopkins trying to negotiate proper hash marks for his prison cell.
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14 hours ago, Skeletor '96 said:
These stories sure make me glad I marched for Jeff Fiedler.
*stares in Santa Clara Vanguard*
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On 3/3/2020 at 8:03 AM, njthundrrd said:
What are your Top 3 Cadets shows since 2000 and why?
2000 (GE out the wazoo, should have won outright)
2015 (Shostakovich's Tenth is my all-time favorite piece)
2003 (best version of Malaguena ever, sorry Scouts fans)
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Billie Eilish, huh?
You know, she's only 18. They should offer her a spot in the corps! 😄
DCI Era Medalists - Something New to talk about!!
in DCI World Class Corps Discussions
Posted
Phantom should have won outright in 1996. SCV should have won outright in 1999. Cadets should have won outright in 2000.
1993 is the only year I look at and think, yeah, that probably should have been a tie.