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Score Projections for July 9


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I've been debating whether to tinker with the formula since last night's results came in well below expectations. However, my attitude is that these projections are a "benchmark", so I want to keep it as simple as possible.

rnk corps   last	  pred	 diff	 rate
1  BD	  85.53	 86.90	 1.38	 0.56
2  CAV	 85.00	 86.40	 1.40	 0.55
3  CAD	 83.38	 85.85	 2.47	 0.63
4  BC	  82.35	 84.75	 2.40	 0.60
5  PR	  83.45	 84.10	 0.65	 0.60
6  CRN	 79.53	 81.45	 1.92	 0.67
7  SCV	 80.85	 81.20	 0.35	 0.48
8  BAC	 79.95	 81.15	 1.20	 0.60
9  BK	  78.90	 80.55	 1.65	 0.80
10  MS	  78.17	 80.25	 2.08	 0.59
11  GM	  77.47	 79.20	 1.73	 0.54
12  SPT	 75.30	 77.35	 2.05	 0.58
13  CLT	 74.05	 76.25	 2.20	 0.60
14  XM	  74.20	 75.60	 1.40	 0.62
15  BS	  72.38	 74.45	 2.08	 0.63
16  MAN	 70.05	 72.10	 2.05	 0.65
17  PC	  69.90	 71.85	 1.95	 0.60
18  CR	  70.67	 71.35	 0.67	 0.56
19  SWD	 68.70	 68.55	 -0.15	0.50
20  ESP	 64.15	 66.45	 2.30	 0.47
21  MAG	 64.45	 65.65	 1.20	 0.68
22  PNR	 60.23	 63.55	 3.32	 0.70
23  CAS	 61.95	 62.15	 0.20	 0.10

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Here are the actual scores compared to the projections. The median error was 0.7.

corps   pred	  actual	error
BD	  86.90	 86.40	 -0.50
CAD	 85.85	 84.40	 -1.45
PR	  84.10	 84.60	 0.50
CRN	 81.45	 80.65	 -0.80
SCV	 81.20	 80.75	 -0.45
BK	  80.55	 80.10	 -0.45
CLT	 76.25	 74.90	 -1.35
XM	  75.60	 73.60	 -2.00
MAN	 72.10	 71.80	 -0.30
PC	  71.85	 72.90	 1.05
CR	  71.35	 72.65	 1.30
ESP	 66.45	 67.15	 0.70
CAS	 62.15	 61.95	 -0.20

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