The prediction thread got me thinking...

[HornTeacher]

Yes, yes it is.

You should call the IRS to demand your form 825 because, obviously, they have been very successful in keeping from you. You are entitled to the same Form 825 as every other tax-paying American.

Make your voice heard!

(just a little sarcasm there)

No problem...I can match you drink-for-drink in that category.

[nemesiscorps]

if you examine back to 2000:

the smallest leap a corps has gone on to win is of course 0 places, repeat champions from 00-01, 01-02, 09-10

the largest leap is from 5th (10-11)

the average positional advancement into winning the championship is 1.35, reflecting the 7 times a group has gotten 2nd and then won.

so that math seems to favor the Bluecoats.

BUT

looking at the 5years prior to any corps winning the championships, the highest post-2000 is the cadets with an average placement of 4.

Crown's average placing the 5years prior to winning was 3.2, phantom's was 3.6.

so looking at corps who finished in the top 5 last year

BlueCoats current 5year is 4.6

SCV is at 5.2

the Cadets are at 3.2, as are Carolina Crown.

vegas is probably going to slot the Devils as the odds on favorite. but Field has a greater chance of ousting the champ than a repeat win.

so we are looking at the Cadets or Crown to take it. there are an equal number of times a corps has won while place in 5th or 3rd the year before, 1 each. but that 'average jump to championship' number of 1.35 seems to favor a smaller leap over a larger one, which is why smart money will take the Cadets to win it in 2016.

(the abovestated statistics and assumptions are presented purely for entertainment purposes, the poster in no way endorses gambling, gambling related activities, using math to ruin things, or spending too much time looking at placement statistics instead of working. like all math, results may vary.)

Wow.