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Drumcorpdad62

Is past performance a predictor of future success?

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I work with predictive analytics for a living.  This is fun stuff for me. I did some basic analysis of 2019 and results are below.  I did not apply any type of advance machine learning to this, all straight statistics.  Bottom line -- Blue Devils, Blue Coats, Blue Knights, Blue Stars and Pacific Crest are the only corps who outperformed their average increase from 1st show to last show.  

Average  6 year increase is an average of the difference between 1st score of the season and last score (I did last score and not high score, even though we know most finals scores go down among the bottom 6).  

Many reasons for this as we know, show design, age and experience of MM, skill of the staff, how the judge was feeling that day, etc. Top 4 were all different, but I hit on 10 out of 20 placements and pretty close on final score for 11 of the 20.  

 

Corps Avg 6 yr increase 1st Score 2019 Spread 2019 increase/avg 2019 predicted score Predicted Finish Actual 2019 Rank actual 2019 score
Blue Devils 26.138 71.70 26.63 0.49 97.84 2.00 1.00 98.33
Blue Coats 25.65 71.15 27.09 1.44 96.80 4.00 2.00 98.24
Santa Clara  26.35 72.35 24.25 -2.10 98.70 1.00 3.00 96.60
Carolina Crown 26.27 70.90 25.66 -0.61 97.17 3.00 4.00 96.56
The Cavaliers 25.63 70.20 25.20 -0.43 95.83 5.00 5.00 95.40
Boston  25.38 70.05 24.44 -0.94 95.43 6.00 6.00 94.49
Blue Knights 25.52 66.00 26.05 0.53 91.52 8.00 7.00 92.05
Blue Stars 25.67 65.45 25.78 0.10 91.12 9.00 8.00 91.23
The Cadets 25.09 67.10 22.23 -2.86 92.19 7.00 9.00 89.33
Mandarins 23.64 67.10 22.20 -1.44 90.74 10.00 10.00 89.30
Crossmen 24.45 64.00 23.55 -0.90 88.45 11.00 11.00 87.55
Phantom Regiment 24.11 63.25 23.99 -0.12 87.36 12.00 12.00 87.24
Spirit of Atlanta 19.45 66.85 18.74 -0.71 86.30 13.00 13.00 85.59
Pacific Crest 20.11 62.15 23.20 3.09 82.26 18.00 14.00 85.35
The Academy 21.2 64.60 19.70 -1.50 85.80 14.00 15.00 84.30
Colts 23.78 61.90 22.33 -1.46 85.68 16.00 16.00 84.23
Madison Scouts 22.76 63.00 19.14 -3.62 85.76 15.00 17.00 82.14
Troopers 24.09 60.45 21.21 -2.88 84.54 17.00 18.00 81.66
Jersey Surf 16.43 63.95 11.95 -4.48 80.38 19.00 19.00 75.90
Seattle Cascades 15.31 59.35 13.02 -2.29 74.66 20.00 20.00 72.37

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One thing that I think may impact the scoring improvement for the top 12 on your list is that these corps have been perennial finalists.  Scoring for the top 12 is pretty consistent no matter who the corps is. Look at the scoring jumps from Allentown to Indy.  You'll probably find that the jump in scores for that short period of time for the top 3-4 at Indy is fairly significant. It's always going to take a high 97-98 to finish 1st. 97 is the mark for a medal. You can pretty much count on it. 

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