rainshdw08

First time watching BK (FN) live...I'm trying to like it. I don't get the narrative. Colts have the only narrative that flows with the show this year imo. But decent show BK.

I miss the dots! Lol

+1

Seems to be backbuilding a bit...kinda has that stalled tropical look to it. It does look to be wimping out a bit but...am concerned it may not as its just sitting there and more moisture is streaming in the area.

Storms have fired all around the Allentown area due to strong daytime heating as the clouds didn't really do us any favors. A large cell just west of Allentown seems to be moving north and east...not sure if it affects the stadium. Other clusters are west, south and east of the area looking to congeal soon near Allentown. The hope is these storms don't refire behind them and flow through the area before the show. The air is definitely primed for more development. I feel some delays are possible but as it stands now, I can't see anything more than that due to the smallish type cells and progressive movements.

Thanks!!!! Weather and Drum Corps are definetly my two passions in life! Physics...ahhh, the spice of life :)

hahaha I honestly didn't even notice! Good catch!

just posted in the Allentown Day ONE thread... as for the time frames of rain....don't buy into the hype. That hour by hour is based off of ONE or maybe two models...again, they are just models plugged into a computer that spits out numbers, real forecasters use their eyes and know what's going on around them. Not meant to sound brash/cocky luv4corps!!!!

Weather for these shows are still very much up in the air. Looking at the situation from afar this morning, I still feel there is alot of disparity in what exactly will happen. Like Precious Roy said in the "Buy an Umbrella for DCI East" thread or http://www.drumcorpsplanet.com/forums/index.php/topic/160374-buy-an-umbrella-for-dci-east/ NWS Philly thinks rain will be in the area from now until Sunday, just where and when will have to wait until that huge blob on the radar (Shortwave) moving up from the VA/NC/SC area gets to Allentown...which, to me, looks like the northern edge is getting eaten away by dry air. The current forecast is a 30% chance of scattered showers and T storms after noon (daytime heating) Tonight increases to 40%. But still, scattered is the name of the game...which is better than widespread for sure. Personally I wouldn't buy into any futurecast or forecast outside of NWS Philly at this time as they are on top of that area 24-7, but even their updates to the grids can seem behind at times, happens to all of us. Still IMO this http://www.weather.gov/phi/ and click on Allentown, is your BEST and most accurate forecast versus weather.com, accuweather...which may be a shameless plug but it's what I feel. I know there are some decent Mets out there doing their own sites outside of those two biggies, but still, unless they are nowcasting (and have experience in doing such) the NWS will be better IMO. So again, we wait and see what the day brings. Day time heating is already in full effect but the clouds from the Carolina SW would seem to help keep the heat off the ground threfore limiting instability in the air for today. If any cloud breaks can happen I would assume that storms would break out shortly afterwards, but still in the hit /miss variety. Tonight another SW approaches the area and will usher in moist southwest flow along with a slow moving warm front. I'm hoping this can hold out until after the show. time will tell. I'll try and keep abreast of the radar as I know these next two nights are big for everyone. EDIT: in the above thread, a poster said something that made me want to add this edit. Protip: (as Precious Roy likes to call it lol) when you look at a hour-by-hour rain forecast, it's based on 1 or 2 models, models are good for both short and long term but IMO it takes more that looking at what models say to know for sure what is going to happen. Which is why you rarely see the NWS forecast 100% chance of rain until day of storm normally. From my own personal standpoint I put VERY little faith in hour-by-hour rain forecast's....I could go into it but i'll just offend ppl. I prefer to use my eyes (looking at radar and such) and current weather to make a nowcast.

Love how the rain was taken out of the forecast tonight. I've been looking all day thinking I'm not seeing any rain tonight.

Exactly...

Lmao!! sorry man! haha

Well...sort of. it is a "memo" of record that we can use to go back and forth and look at what was said on a given day. In its most basic terms, how it works is...a Forecasters gets on his/her shift and is given a verbal passdown of what the current situation is. New models forecasts come in and they must determine what they are trying to tell them based on the data they have in front of them, satellite trends, current surface maps from all over North America and upstream into Alaska and Asia. based on all those item they must make a "best guess" on what they think is happening. There is a short term forecaster and a long term forecaster on duty at the same time looking at anywhere from 2 to 6 screens with one or two mouses (it can can get crazy when severe weather is going on and you grab thr wrong mouse lol) both doing seperate things but work together to make a forecast. Most NWS offices have 2 AFD's, or Forecast Discussions, they write up a day. One at 3pm and one at 3am. Some offices do every 6 hours but that's rare. Updates to the normal 12 hour interval are common if needed due to large forecast changes and or bad weather is affecting the area. It happens, we think one thing will happen, then it changes and we realize it isn't...so we put out an update. I will be the first to say we aren't perfect and make mistakes...that's part of the business, but know that we HATE to make mistakes...on the other hand, that's what drives us to be good. I'm guess Precious Roy would agree here. As for how its written, it's much better now that it used to be. We used to use all sorts of abbreviations and the like...not so much anymore due to easier to use interfaces that allow long words. Hence my user name rainshdw...its 8 characters because that was as long as usernames were allowed to by back in the stone age of computing. There are some that try to be humerous in their right up's (me) or witty with words but we are under obligations to be as professional as we can, but hey, I can't help it sometimes lol. anomalous trough = a trough is an elongated region of relatively low pressure, anomalous means its not normal or out of a usual position. Kinda like a front, but not really, troughs are normally assc with a front Numerical Guidance = Models. Embedded Shortwaves = a kink in the trough...so if the trough is in a straight line say from ND to OK, but bends counter clockwise a bit in KS...there's your EMB SW...or low pressure to a point. and yes, they all have a AFD written, although like you said may be in a different looking link from office to office. soon we will all be the same. and yes again...I would love to write an AFD that says run for your lives! hahahaha almost did with the Blizzard of 2011.

and it has been for the last 4 days now...and I feel will contiune to be until at least tomorrow afternoon. These kinds of things are hard to forecast. Where is the front going to stall? IS the front going to stall? depending on the first two questions, where will the rain set up? Anytime you see the models saying a weak low pressure is expected to traverse a stalled frontal boundry...you have issues with your forecast and cannot be accurate. They are going off from one model...which is easy to do, I like the Euro too...but my job is to be accurate, not be first to be right. posted with utmost respect. :)

Gee....kinda like...Oh I dunno...MTV did!?! hahahaha

+1! Thanks sir!

Here ya go sir, use this link, click on Allentown http://www.weather.gov/phi/

its kinda weird for me....because I LOVE weather, like I like it alot, its what I do...I love all the destruction, craziness and unpredicability...no I don't like it when people get hurt. but when it comes to DC, weather pisses me off lol

and personally...Take Minneapolis for example...I get great seats and spend mucho $$$$ for 4 people in say December or January. Nearly 50 yeard line just less than halfway up. Now I reserve a hotel, 2 rooms. Then July comes, I take a day off from work Friday so I can see Corps practicing, that costs a days leave, then I drive 6 hours one way to get there...tank of gas. Get up there, go to several Corps practice sites, have lunch and dinner, get up the next morning and go to more practice sites...get to the show...watch the first 3 corps and BLAMO rain cancels the show. Now i'm dirving back, losing a day in the hotel because I booked Friday and Saturday night. Due to my job, this was my finals. So yes...as much as I LOATHE hearing all the echo's from an indoor site, at least I get to see the shows. So from that standpoint I LOVE shows in a dome.

Not sure what site your getting that from, no offense...but NWS official forecast as it stands at 7am this morning is FRIDAY 50% chance of Showers and Storms, FRIDAY NIGHT 30% chance of showers and storms winds dropping to calm. SATURDAY 40% chance of rain after 2pm (daytime heating) SATURDAY NIGHT 30% chance of showers and storms. This is all pretty much in line with what I said here a few days ago. albieght Friday day, looks to have to most chance right now. 30% chance for Friday and Saturday/Night just isn't all that much compared to what I was seeing two days ago. I wasn going to wait until tomorrow morning, look at the updates, then do a forecast here. but if I had to guess right now I would say its gonna be another daytime heating nowcast type of rain just like most of the other shows this year...which are impossible to forecast until day of show in the afternoon...gotta wait until the radar lighgts up first to see when and where things are moving.

and soon to be Minneapolis once the new Vikings stadium gets done. Pure speculation, but I can see it happening with all the bad weather at that show. Plus I always hated sitting in stands when the dewpoint was over 70. not fun. Not that I like the sound of a dome either but as Guardling has generally said...at least we get to see a show.

Zing!!!!!

Man...I had this big long explaination going...then I refreshed my screen on accident. grrr. gimme some time and I'll try again. I'll PM ya so I don't bore ppl here. Basically its not ground clutter, its the radar in "clear air" mode in Jackson MS. In Cleveland, where they are thinking it might rain, its primed to catch precip eaiser versus clear air mode. Radar doesn't tell us where the rain is, it tells us where the energy in the atmosphere is, generally speaking....which very much relates to all precip. How many times have you looked at the radar and thought, man this looks intense but outside, not so much? or WTH it's raining or snowing out and nothing is on the radar? Several if you pay attention to radar...this is why. you're seeing reflected energy versus actual rain.

Bit too far out right now....just on the edge of accuracy. When you see a 30% chance of rain at the 6/7 day timeframe...that means models are showing possibilites but they are not in agreement yet. :)

Well...I saw this and started looking but wasn't sure I wanted to post just yet due to the large uncertainties...buuut you asked so here's what I have so far. . Friday should be the transitional day from nice HP weather to return flow crappy weather, but looks to the "better" of the two as it stands right now. As for show 2 on Saturday...some models saw wash out...some say that waits until Sunday. Models are still quite all over the place as you can tell for the weekend. Hopefully will have more defined news in the next few days. Trying to scarf down lunch as I type this and look at 3 screens at once lol