Finally, DCI Acknowledges "Issues" At LOS

[oldschooldbc]

Earthquakes typically last less than 30 seconds, and 99.9% of them are barely strong enough to knock a glass off the edge of a table. The chances of a major, catastrophic, earthquake during DCI finals are incredibly minimal.

There are two factors that you have to evaluate, when you are calculating risk: probability and impact.

What is the probability of a major earthquake (7.0 or greater) striking during Finals? Very slim. What would be the impact of such an event? Extremely high. What would be the impact of a major earthquake on finals, if the stadium was damaged? Or the roads leading to the stadium? Or the housing sites? Or all of the above?

It is what folks in the risk mitigation business describe as a "long tail" event - low probability, high impact. Imagine a simple Cartesian graph, with probability on Y axis, and impact on the X axis. A major earthquake would be low probability/high impact. It would appear on the right bottom corner of the graph.

So because the impact would be high, the risk would not be low, regardless of the probability. I would still place the risk of this event as medium, because of the impact.

Now, I would like to think that this is part of the reason why Finals has been held so infrequently in earthquake zones (e.g., California.) I would like to think that the BoD takes this into account, when making these decisions. I would like to think that the health and safety of our young men and women are paramount, when the BoD make these choices. But most likely not. What is driving their decisionmaking? 1) Cost, and 2) Competitive Advantage - not necessarily in that order.

[dmfootworks]

There are two factors that you have to evaluate, when you are calculating risk: probability and impact.

What is the probability of a major earthquake (7.0 or greater) striking during Finals? Very slim. What would be the impact of such an event? Extremely high. What would be the impact of a major earthquake on finals, if the stadium was damaged? Or the roads leading to the stadium? Or the housing sites? Or all of the above?

It is what folks in the risk mitigation business describe as a "long tail" event - low probability, high impact. Imagine a simple Cartesian graph, with probability on Y axis, and impact on the X axis. A major earthquake would be low probability/high impact. It would appear on the right bottom corner of the graph.

So because the impact would be high, the risk would not be low, regardless of the probability. I would still place the risk of this event as medium, because of the impact.

Now, I would like to think that this is part of the reason why Finals has been held so infrequently in earthquake zones (e.g., California.) I would like to think that the BoD takes this into account, when making these decisions. I would like to think that the health and safety of our young men and women are paramount, when the BoD make these choices. But most likely not. What is driving their decisionmaking? 1) Cost, and 2) Competitive Advantage - not necessarily in that order.

I guess the NFL and the IOC just haven't been as smart as DCI when they have made decisions to host Superbowls and the Olympics in California. It makes me sick that they didn't have the "health and safety of our young men and women" in mind.

[oldschooldbc]

I'm not sure there is. Can you (or anyone else) name one?

For Southern California, the obvious choice would be Qualcomm. It was recently upgraded to 71,000-seat capacity, and no dome (thankfully.) The location has hosted the Super Bowl before - so it could certainly host Finals. The new Home Depot Center in Carson would be an intriguing choice, but it is smaller on capacity (only about 25K.)

For Northern California, I would pick California Memorial Stadium in Berkeley. It also has 71,000 seat capacity, and a built-in fan base in the Bay area. Stanford Stadium has less capacity, so I would probably go with Berkeley instead.

So see, there are options. DCI could have explored them. Did they even try? I bet the answer is No.

[oldschooldbc]

This DCI Conspiracy Moment brought to you by Reynold's Wrap.

Don't go out in a lightning storm with that hat on, young man! But if you do, please stand far away from me.

[84BDsop]

For Southern California, the obvious choice would be Qualcomm. It was recently upgraded to 71,000-seat capacity, and no dome (thankfully.) The location has hosted the Super Bowl before - so it could certainly host Finals. The new Home Depot Center in Carson would be an intriguing choice, but it is smaller on capacity (only about 25K.)

For Northern California, I would pick California Memorial Stadium in Berkeley. It also has 71,000 seat capacity, and a built-in fan base in the Bay area. Stanford Stadium has less capacity, so I would probably go with Berkeley instead.

So see, there are options. DCI could have explored them. Did they even try? I bet the answer is No.

They DID try to explore it....ToC in 04 was in part to evaluate venues for a CA finals.

Jack Murphy (NEVER Quaalcom for this native San Diegan....it'll always be The Murph to me) would've been awesome....but there were a few problems, as I understand it.

1) Audience distance from the front sideline. This was the weakest argument for me...there were certainly similar distances at prior championships.

2) Conflicts with the Chargers. Even though they SUCK, they're still the major tenant, and DCI might've interfered with their plans to suck ### locally.

3) The big one...at the time of ToC, it was still a joint use facility with the Padres, so the baseball diamond would still be down in August.

Now that the Padres have their OWN stadium to suck in, The Murph could be looked at again...but the issue of damage to the field would be a problem unless they switch to grassturf...our activity is VERY hard on grass (and, in fact, this was THE major concern when DCI first explored rotating finals around a handful of sites around the country in the last few years of the Pesceone era....and San Diego was the west coast choice)

The only NorCal one of those you mentioned I've been in was Stanford, which obviously works for regionals...Dunno about finals.

As for why Indy was picked...you are WAY off the mark.....the location works out somewhat wellfor allcorps, as it's far closer to the middle of the country.

Much as I would love the West coast to have finals more often, you have to consider the financial burden on corps who normally don't travel out here. BD and SCV (to use the best examples) have has the money machine going to afford to go east EVERY YEAR.....but coming West every year would kill a large chunk of the remaining corps.

Once again....you are wrong wrong wrong....you need to loosen the tinfoil hat.

[dmfootworks]

For Southern California, the obvious choice would be Qualcomm. It was recently upgraded to 71,000-seat capacity, and no dome (thankfully.) The location has hosted the Super Bowl before - so it could certainly host Finals. The new Home Depot Center in Carson would be an intriguing choice, but it is smaller on capacity (only about 25K.)

For Northern California, I would pick California Memorial Stadium in Berkeley. It also has 71,000 seat capacity, and a built-in fan base in the Bay area. Stanford Stadium has less capacity, so I would probably go with Berkeley instead.

So see, there are options. DCI could have explored them. Did they even try? I bet the answer is No.

DCI would likely not be welcome in Berkeley and the parking, traffic, and cost of lodging would make it a poor choice in any case. The weather in Berkeley tends to be too harsh for drum corps in August.

Stanford is a nicer stadium (renovated) and a more pleasant setting, but again too expensive.

Qualcomm might be best of your suggestions, but it's just way out of the way.

Anyway, I think your argument was that West Coast DCI interests would try to nail down a years-long California location for Finals if only they could. But I'm sure that even the NorCal administrations know that these are not good places to hold Finals annually, and the activityas a whole would never stand for the trek west every year.

[84BDsop]

Qualcomm might be best of your suggestions, but it's just way out of the way.

*waggles hand* Not entirely...the trick is where the tour goes....south through Arizona (and around the southern Rockies) would be my call..

And ORLANDO wasn't out of the way???

[Tom Brace]

Oh, I have no doubt that cost was the chief reason that Indianapolis was chosen. But could the BoD have got an equally solid bid out of a site in California? Were any California sites even considered, for the "permanent" Finals location?

Surely there is at least one stadium, in the nation's largest state, that would have been a suitable venue for Finals. And sure there was at least one chamber of commerce in the Golden State, who was willing to give DCI similar terms, that DCI received from Indy.

So why was this decision made? Let's step in to way-back machine - all the way back to 2005/2006.

Take a look at the makeup of the Board in 2006, when this decision was made: only 2 California corps on the Board. By contrast, there were 5 Midwest corps. So where they did decide to place finals? In the Midwest. The region of the country which had the most representatives is the place where finals was "permanently" located. I am not a conspiracy-theory freak, but I can do simple math.

So why did the Midwestern corps directors decide to "permanently" place Finals in their own backyard? I can only think of one reason: it gives the Midwestern corps a strategic advantage. Remember, these corps directors are motivated by one thing, and one thing only: strategic self-advantage.

They care about what is best about their own corps, and very little else. (And I would argue that they also do what's best for their own personal careers.) They don't do what is best for drum corp in general, and they certainly don't do what is best for their competitors - present or future.

If they had placed the Finals in California, this would have given the California corps this strategic advantage - and there is no way that the 5 Midwest and 2 East Coast directors would have done that. No way. I am sure that these 7 directors made this calculation in their heads: 1) If we locate Finals in California, the California corps could win 6-7 more titles, over the next decade; 2) if we locate Finals in the Midwest, the California corps will win 3-4 more titles. No one should be shocked that they chose option 2.

You have to think the way the BoD directors think - with their own interests in mind, and nothing else. When you do this, their decisions become perfectly clear. Quite frankly, given the current makeup of the Board, I am surprised that Finals was ever held in California at all.

and the hole you dig keeps getting bigger and bigger. I am enjoying each and every level of your debate as each becomes less and less plausible.

keep up the good work sir.

[dmfootworks]

*waggles hand* Not entirely...the trick is where the tour goes....south through Arizona (and around the southern Rockies) would be my call..

And ORLANDO wasn't out of the way???

Yeah, you're right. I actually think San Diego would be really nice for Finals.

But I was speaking more to the poster's argument that the West Coast interests would have it in Cali every year if they could and that there must be a place where it could be held regularly.

[Tom Brace]

For Southern California, the obvious choice would be Qualcomm. It was recently upgraded to 71,000-seat capacity, and no dome (thankfully.) The location has hosted the Super Bowl before - so it could certainly host Finals. The new Home Depot Center in Carson would be an intriguing choice, but it is smaller on capacity (only about 25K.)

For Northern California, I would pick California Memorial Stadium in Berkeley. It also has 71,000 seat capacity, and a built-in fan base in the Bay area. Stanford Stadium has less capacity, so I would probably go with Berkeley instead.

So see, there are options. DCI could have explored them. Did they even try? I bet the answer is No.

Berkeley is a major non-starter...have you seen the area around the stadium? Corps have trucks and buses...remember?

Wow. Just wow.

See, I know you have a major emphasis in all your posts from a fan's perspective and I appreciate that. But, ANY large capacity football stadium can handle fans and their automobiles.

However, even at concert events you might have 2-3 semis and a couple of coach buses to accomodate.

Now, let's talk 22-25 corps on Thursday night and their caravans.

Very few college stadiums are set up to accomodate that. Very few. Oh, did I mention warm up areas where the warm up doesn't bleed through to the performance area?

You see my friend, without drum corps on the field...we really don't need to worry about whether fans are present or not.

Accomodate the drum corps...and then accomodating the fans is a piece of cake.