2010 Percussion Predictions

[BRASSO]

I am glad that you understand the difference between captions and you can vaguely understand a recap, BUT I am telling you how it is in this activity. Phantom Regiment had arguably the best percussion section LAST year too and they finished what in drums? 5th....and there were not four lines better than them.

Same thing happened to Bluecoats in 2007. They were winning horns all year long, including quarterfinals, and they finished 7th in horns in the end (the same place as the corps).

The list goes on and on BTW. Your overall score puts you in competitive "packs," and from those packs it is hard for the caption scores to move out of them (up or down) without the corps moving into a different pack. A lot of this has to do with performance order and just how the activity has become the last decade or so. Go ahead and look at it. When is the last time you saw a caption winner out of the top 5?

Phantom Regiment was DCI Champion in 2008. If we apply your theory here in 2009, the percussion judge would have to elevate the percussion score because the Phantom Regiment Guard was good in 2008 and Phantom Regiment was the defending DCI Champion. That's your logic in play here. This means that when Phantom Regiment went out in their first competition in 2009 they would be expected to win the percussion caption for your theory to hold any water. So.... what did we find when Phantom Regiment and the Cavaliers percussions went head to head in the 1st competition in 2009 in Stillwater, Minn. on June 20th ? Phantom Regiment's percussion beat the Cavaliers in percussion, correct ?

No. The Cavaliers beat Phantom Regiment in Percussion. The percussion judge that nite did not care a wit where the Corps finished in 2008.... did not care a wit where the guard finshed. And what transpired after the first show ? We find that Phantom's percussion scores went UP .... over the Cavaliers and others.... while the visual and guard scores reflected the sub par nature of these sections of their Corps compared to the previous year.

The idea that a caption judge cares what another section does is ludcrous and silly. We need look no further than last nites score in Fairfield Ohio. The Music Ensemble judge scored the 4th place finishing Blue Stars in first place in that caption over Bluecoats, Boston, and Phantom Regiment. That judge did not care what the other sections were like at all. The idea that the percussion judge will lower his score in percussion because that Corps has a sub par guard is absurd........ also, Phantom Regiment percussion line marchers in 2008, as the season went along, may have been impacted by other elements scoring low. THIS is more likely. It would be natural for the drumline to be deflated a bit with the Corps scores overall. Phantom knew by Finals that their chances of finishing in the top 4 were shot. Their percussion line in August was competing with other percussion lines who were still in the hunt to win it all. Given these circumstances, it would not be unthinkable at all that Phantom would finish 4th in drums in the Finals..... much more so than the percussion judge scoring their percussion line based upon what the Guard or the visual side was like at Finals...... oh, and one more thing... you are aware that the Cadets finished 3rd last year at Finals, but came in 8th in percussion tech, losing to, among others, the Boston Crusaders in this caption ? The percussion judge didn't care how good the Cadets guard was, obviously.

Edited July 14, 2010 by BRASSO

[On the 50]

The idea that a caption judge cares what another section does is ludcrous and silly. We need look no further than last nites score in Fairfield Ohio. The Music Ensemble judge scored the 4th place finishing Blue Stars in first place in that caption over Bluecoats, Boston, and Phantom Regiment. That judge did not care what the other sections were like at all. The idea that the percussion judge will lower his score in percussion because that Corps has a sub par guard is absurd........ also, Phantom Regiment percussion line marchers in 2008, as the season went along, may have been impacted by other elements scoring low. THIS is more likely. It would be natural for the drumline to be deflated a bit with the Corps scores overall. Phantom knew by Finals that their chances of finishing in the top 4 were shot. Their percussion line in August was competing with other percussion lines who were still in the hunt to win it all. Given these circumstances, it would not be unthinkable at all that Phantom would finish 4th in drums in the Finals..... much more so than the percussion judge scoring their percussion line based upon what the Guard or the visual side was like at Finals.

I'm not saying that the percussion judge is influenced by the guard or visual score. It's primarily an issue of performance order, and how many corps are left after a given corps performs. At a small show, particularly earlier in the season when there is tons of "room" above any score the judge puts down, almost anything can happen. Let's say the last two corps at a show are Phantom and Blue Devils. Well, Phantom has a good chance of beating BD in drums at that show with a great performance, regardless of how the guard does or what the Vis GE score is. But at Finals, if Phantom is on eighth from last (like they were last year) and BD is the final corps, I'd say Phantom has almost NO CHANCE of winning drums that night even if they played a perfect show. Judges just won't give out a number that high with seven other corps left to perform in Finals.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this in play in Minneapolis. Phantom has been right near the top in drum scores all season. But they are on so early on Saturday, I doubt they come close to the top drum score. My prediction for drum placements in Minneapolis is BD, Bluecoats, Cadets, Cavaliers, then Phantom, even if Phantom comes out and throws down an awesome show.

I also agree that no way was Phantom only the fifth best percussion section last year. Recordings doesn't lie.

[steeldrum]

I'm not saying that the percussion judge is influenced by the guard or visual score. It's primarily an issue of performance order, and how many corps are left after a given corps performs. At a small show, particularly earlier in the season when there is tons of "room" above any score the judge puts down, almost anything can happen. Let's say the last two corps at a show are Phantom and Blue Devils. Well, Phantom has a good chance of beating BD in drums at that show with a great performance, regardless of how the guard does or what the Vis GE score is. But at Finals, if Phantom is on eighth from last (like they were last year) and BD is the final corps, I'd say Phantom has almost NO CHANCE of winning drums that night even if they played a perfect show. Judges just won't give out a number that high with seven other corps left to perform in Finals.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this in play in Minneapolis. Phantom has been right near the top in drum scores all season. But they are on so early on Saturday, I doubt they come close to the top drum score. My prediction for drum placements in Minneapolis is BD, Bluecoats, Cadets, Cavaliers, then Phantom, even if Phantom comes out and throws down an awesome show.

I also agree that no way was Phantom only the fifth best percussion section last year. Recordings doesn't lie.

I'm in agreement with your theory that the early performance time hurt Phantom's percussion last year and will hurt them in Minn. this weekend. Its a combination of "leaving room" for the later corps and Phantom's earlier performance having faded from the judge's memory a bit.

Regarding someone's earlier post about Phantom's drumline being de-motivated by the 2009's Finals since the rest of the corps wasn't placing well.......not the case. Winning drums was a major motivation and focus since winning overall wasn't going to happen.

[Alex M.]

Don't deceive yourself into thinking that live is the same as recordings.

I'm not saying that the percussion judge is influenced by the guard or visual score. It's primarily an issue of performance order, and how many corps are left after a given corps performs. At a small show, particularly earlier in the season when there is tons of "room" above any score the judge puts down, almost anything can happen. Let's say the last two corps at a show are Phantom and Blue Devils. Well, Phantom has a good chance of beating BD in drums at that show with a great performance, regardless of how the guard does or what the Vis GE score is. But at Finals, if Phantom is on eighth from last (like they were last year) and BD is the final corps, I'd say Phantom has almost NO CHANCE of winning drums that night even if they played a perfect show. Judges just won't give out a number that high with seven other corps left to perform in Finals.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this in play in Minneapolis. Phantom has been right near the top in drum scores all season. But they are on so early on Saturday, I doubt they come close to the top drum score. My prediction for drum placements in Minneapolis is BD, Bluecoats, Cadets, Cavaliers, then Phantom, even if Phantom comes out and throws down an awesome show.

I also agree that no way was Phantom only the fifth best percussion section last year. Recordings doesn't lie.

[steeldrum]

Don't deceive yourself into thinking that live is the same as recordings.

I agree with you. The recordings for some reason eliminated a lot of the booming echo that muddied the live performance!

[loudandproud]

#1 Blue Devils-one of the best tenor lines I've seen in a long long time. Highly recommned checking them out on youtube

#2 Bluecoats-my personal favorite to win a drum title this year. Would be very well deserved, this line has been improving and working it #ss off the past four years and it might just get them a title this year.

[BRASSO]

Don't deceive yourself into thinking that live is the same as recordings.

Exactly.

Of course this performance position " theory " collapses too under the weight of the real world applicaton. For instance, The Cadets last year had a good position gathered for Finals. The 2 percussion judges had an opportunity to score the Cadets percussion line in relationship to their overall Corps ranking positioning, which was 2nd to 4th. But did the Cadets percussion score in line with this "theory" of overall placement ranking going in, and the advantageous performance order on Finals Night ?

No. Not in the least. The Cadets were judged that nite on how they peformed. They placed 8th in Percussion Tech n Finals Night.... and it cost them 2nd place. A compelling case could be made that going on EARLIER might have actually helped The Cadets at Finals with their actual percussion performance that night. But The Cadets percussion line performed sub par for them that nite ( a drummer falling early in show might have rattled them bit ). They were placed 8th and NOT in line with their overall ranking placement. Similarly, Phantom who would finish 9th overall, was NOT scored in the 6-9th position in percussion, despite having a sub par visual program and guard. Phantom got the percussion score they deserved in Finals, imo, and it was not out of line with what they had received in other August shows.

Incidentally, are you folks aware that Phantom Regiment moved UP from 6th place in the Semi Finals in percussion to 5th place in percussion in the Finals last year ? There were 3 percussion panels last year at Finals week. None of which had Phantom Regiment in the top 4 . So no, Phantom Regiment was not one of the top 4 percussion lines last year, even though it was a strong section in their Corps. And no, their percussion scores at Finals was not a function of anything else but on how the percussion section performed over the 3 competition days they were scored on in Indy.

Edited July 14, 2010 by BRASSO

[big old drummer man]

Phantom Regiment had arguably the best percussion section LAST year too and they finished what in drums? 5th....and there were not four lines better than them.

I would be one of the people who would argue against that. Last year was by far my LEAST favorite book Paul has written since arriving at PR in 2003, and their level of execution dropped a decent amount from the years preceding it, in my opinion.

Same thing happened to Bluecoats in 2007. They were winning horns all year long, including quarterfinals, and they finished 7th in horns in the end (the same place as the corps).

The list goes on and on BTW. Your overall score puts you in competitive "packs," and from those packs it is hard for the caption scores to move out of them (up or down) without the corps moving into a different pack. A lot of this has to do with performance order and just how the activity has become the last decade or so. Go ahead and look at it.

To play devil's advocate here, the Bluecoats also finished SECOND in percussion that year, which seems to in a way derail your argument.

[dcialumni1989]

To play devil's advocate here, the Bluecoats also finished SECOND in percussion that year, which seems to in a way derail your argument.

Well it may seem that way, but I can tell you that overall score does effect caption placement. It just does. We can argue all of the how's and the why's, but it just does. Nearly every instructor in the activity understands this and the ones that don't are just being naive.

[big old drummer man]

Well it may seem that way, but I can tell you that overall score does effect caption placement. It just does. We can argue all of the how's and the why's, but it just does. Nearly every instructor in the activity understands this and the ones that don't are just being naive.

I agree with you that it does, but what I am pointing out is that sometimes, with the right judge, truly excellent groups can overcome the preconceptions that come with an earlier performance time. It could also be said that had the Bluecoats placed higher overall, they would have won percussion that year. But we'll never know...