Phan Doris Posted August 4, 2005 Share Posted August 4, 2005 (edited) Has anyone noticed any interesting DCI Division I scoring trends lately, especially among the corps that are still reasonably in contention for the 2005 championship? Between coughs and wheezes this week while confined at home with pneumonia, I have been comparing scores, looking for trends and trying to make predictions -- you know, anything to keep from going stir-crazy! In the spirit of Darrell Huff's book, "How to Lie with Statistics," I made spreadsheets and line graphs until I was certain there was not a piece of data left to analyze. And you know what? I'm still confused. :P However, in the interest of sharing my findings with you readers who have been gullible enough to read this post, here is some food for thought: 1) The Cadets have the highest score to date (95.35) 2) Cadets, Cavaliers, Phantom Regiment and Bluecoats all have roughly parallel and positive scoring trends although not at the same scoring levels. This indicates that these corps continue to show increases since July 19. 3) Cadets and Cavaliers are nose-to-nose, with Phantom Regiment right on their heels -- and accelerating more than either Cadets or Cavies. This could bode well for PR unless time runs out on them. 4) Blue Devils seem to have hit a scoring plateau at slightly under 91. 5) Madison's scoring chart looks like a rollercoaster, with ups and downs galore. 6) Bluecoats, currently equal to Madison, appear to be in position to finish higher than the Scouts in Foxboro. Regarding 4 and 5, the figures don't lie (though liars figure). I'm sorry, but these facts -- although not entirely complimentary -- reveal the truth about what has actually happened. My apologies to BD and Madison: Please don't bash the messenger here. And, to avoid further chances at arousing hurtful emotions, I will stop my report with what is written. The past is history and cannot be changed. The present is at hand and we have some control in how it plays out. The future is August 11-13. Let the best corps win. :) Edited August 4, 2005 by Phan Doris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Plays Music Posted August 4, 2005 Share Posted August 4, 2005 You must be a baseball person, cause this is the type of number crunching i expect to do out of my Baseball Encyclopida. Thanks for the facts, being a baseball guy, i LOVE them numbers. lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PR ROCKS Posted August 4, 2005 Share Posted August 4, 2005 As much as I like what you're saying, you forgot that Blue Devils actually scored a 92.60 on 8/1/05, almost exactly 2 points behind the Cadets, so they aren't really just stuck at 91. Also it would be foolish to count out the Scouts when you are talking about top 3. It ain't over till.... Still, I would love for you to be right about Phantom's outcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phan Doris Posted August 4, 2005 Author Share Posted August 4, 2005 In the lingo of statistics, BD's 92.6 may be considered an "outlier" among their recent trend of consecutive 90.xx scores. My observations are not contradicted by the 92.6 score nor, as you have observed, are they supported. None of the corps mentioned in the report is entirely in or out of contention for top three placement; statistical trends are used to make predictions based on past performance. There are no guarantees. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhantomR Posted August 4, 2005 Share Posted August 4, 2005 no it's not a two horse race. it never is. ~>conner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longruns Posted August 4, 2005 Share Posted August 4, 2005 no it's not a two horse race. it never is.~>conner <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Conner, Connor... my young lad.... Study your history! It's almost always a two horse race. 2004- Cavies/BD 2003- BD/Cavies 2002- Undefeated Cavies, but BD was still in the game for most of the season 2001- Cavies/BD 2000- Tie between Cadets and Cavaliers 1999- Tie between BD and SCV(neck and neck all season) I could go on and on... every now and then there are three corps' in the mix, but it seems to always come down to two. Check the finals sheets from the last 15 years. There's all the evidence you need. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhantomR Posted August 5, 2005 Share Posted August 5, 2005 I know my history just fine, thanks. my point is, you can not count out a corps. never. It's never a 2 horse race, although it may seem that way come finals week. we all nkow dark horses play a factor, see also: Phantom Regiment 1996. ~>conner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NR_Ohiobando Posted August 5, 2005 Share Posted August 5, 2005 (edited) Conner, Connor... my young lad.... Study your history! It's almost always a two horse race.2004- Cavies/BD (I could really care less about SCV's scores, the show they had deserved to be right up with both of em) 2003- BD/Cavies (...? Cadets scored a 97.10 right next to Cavies' 97.25 on Finals night) 2002- Undefeated Cavies, but BD was still in the game for most of the season(Cadets were in 2nd in Quarters, then dropped to 3rd in Semis and Finals) 2001- Cavies/BD (...? Cadets definately tied BD that year for 2nd place) 2000- Tie between Cadets and Cavaliers (With BD less than a point behind them) 1999- Tie between BD and SCV(neck and neck all season)...(this one I'll give you even though Cavies were definately turning it up during Finals week) I could go on and on... every now and then there are three corps' in the mix, but it seems to always come down to two. Check the finals sheets from the last 15 years. There's all the evidence you need. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> If anything, it's a 24 horse race with three or four of in a photo phinish. Come Finals week, it's not uncommon to see surprises. :) As VK said, it's not over until the fat lady sings...and gets eaten Edited August 5, 2005 by NR_Ohiobando Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longruns Posted August 5, 2005 Share Posted August 5, 2005 I know my history just fine, thanks.my point is, you can not count out a corps. never. It's never a 2 horse race, although it may seem that way come finals week. we all nkow dark horses play a factor, see also: Phantom Regiment 1996. ~>conner <{POST_SNAPBACK}> It really is about finals week. From Preview to Finals judges have made the decision which corps' are really in the hunt. Though this is not always the case as you pointed in 1996. However, by mid-late season history shows that on most years two corps' rise to the top. I'm not sure why, it just seems to work out that way. There are always those corps' who if they cleaned like crazy or make some drastic changes can get back in, but few rarely do. Some corps' may start slow, others fast, but with about three weeks to go there just always seems to be Two, maybe three who stand above the rest. If I had a dollar every year Steve R. said that it was a two horse race on the PBS telecast I'd be a moderately poor man, but you get my point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scerpella Posted August 5, 2005 Share Posted August 5, 2005 As much as I like what you're saying, you forgot that Blue Devils actually scored a 92.60 on 8/1/05, almost exactly 2 points behind the Cadets, so they aren't really just stuck at 91. Also it would be foolish to count out the Scouts when you are talking about top 3. It ain't over till....Still, I would love for you to be right about Phantom's outcome. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Scouts had what they considered their best show of the year and they moved not a whit. Its unfortunate that despite the fact they traded high scores with the current top three most of the season, the die appears to have been cast. Bluecoats will catch and pass Scouts and 6th possibly 7th looks like where they will end. I am at a loss as to why this happens most often it seems to Scouts, this late season fade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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