Projected Scores for July 2

[vferrera]

This is just based on linear regression so take it for what it's worth.

1 BD 83.70

2 CAV 82.70

3 CAD 82.15

4 BC 81.45

5 PR 79.20

6 SCV 78.85

7 CRN 77.15

8 BAC 76.80

9 MS 76.65

10 BK 75.75

11 SPT 75.75

12 CLT 73.75

13 GM 71.55

14 XM 70.00

15 BS 69.75

16 CR 68.90

17 PC 68.70

18 MAN 68.50

19 ESP 64.65

20 SWD 63.90

21 MAG 61.00

22 CAS 60.80

23 PNR 58.15

The average error between predicted and actual scores is 0.66

The average increase in scores is 0.56 pts/day

[FlamInvert122]

So everyone but the Cavies moves up? Hmm... interesting :P

[vferrera]

So everyone but the Cavies moves up? Hmm... interesting :P

I should have mentioned that this is based on fitting a straight line through all the scores since the beginning of the season, not just the latest scores. However, in the case of Cavaliers, the fits were particularly tight: r-squared = 0.97, average error = 0.5 pts.

[dsmontal]

I should have mentioned that this is based on fitting a straight line through all the scores since the beginning of the season, not just the latest scores. However, in the case of Cavaliers, the fits were particularly tight: r-squared = 0.97, average error = 0.5 pts.

Very interesting! :) Way to go! ^OO^

How would this look compared to previous seasons?

[4MalletJim]

I have boston's APD...man....it sounds like they'd be doing alot better than they acctually are. I guess Visual is their kryptonite.

[drumcorpsguardmom]

Statistics are definitely fun to play with. Unfortunately, few scores increase linerarly. I'm sure that most corps wish they did.

[dciguy01]

I was actually thinking the same thing with a LOT of these scores. Not in the method you reached them, just the actual scores for tonight.

[vferrera]

Statistics are definitely fun to play with. Unfortunately, few scores increase linerarly. I'm sure that most corps wish they did.

It might seem that way, but, on average, the linear trend accounts for 90% of the show-to-show variation in score. Basically, every corps improves about 0.5 to 0.7 points per day. Other factors (performance, show conditions, judging panel, etc)In combined account for only about 10% of the variation in score, on average.

One interpretation is that corps get consistently better day to day. Whatever the reason, the scores march upward with almost clocklike regularity, and at about the same rate for all corps.

Edited July 2, 2006 by vferrera

[xmenjeffb]

Actually i think most would prefer they reflect the performance of the evening.

George O once held a corps I was teaching field visual number in the same place for almost 3 weeks, being we only saw him on the field that 3 times over the course of that time,

Every time we would clean and fix and think ok he has GOT to move us now. WRONG !! we still were missing what needed to be fixed and how.

Finally we literally walked the field as he did with his tape playing until we found the MAJOR issues, And OMG they were there and he was right.

But by doing that he made us learn how to be better . How to see things on the field better. We got better and so did the corps. Was i happy while this was happening ?/ NO WAY . Those that know me can only imagine. But he was right. He was consistent in his views and sampling. We learned or we were not moving unitil we learned how to fix the issues .Others have been that strong as well.

Point being ... the performers are young adults . Many staff people are young as i was then and The corps do not get better every show. We see them in practice . They see them that night , in that stadium and give you a read. Simple as that . Maybe we were better based on what we had been seeing for a week. Does not always equal great improvement. Just like All changes are not better , sometimes they are just changes.

I say Bash the knee caps if they have a bad night . Just make sure you reward them if and when it is better down the road, The system is based on achievement . There were nights with the Colts when we were just plain BAD . Seems Don Hill was usually on the panels those nights.

And in critque we talked about baseball and the cubs because He knew and we knew it was an off night. But when it was achieved you would see a difference in his numbers , That is all that most performers and staffs want . It is what i believe most judges if not all strive to do.

[octavia9299]

It might seem that way, but, on average, the linear trend accounts for 90% of the show-to-show variation in score. Basically, every corps improves about 0.5 to 0.7 points per day. Other factors (performance, show conditions, judging panel, etc)In combined account for only about 10% of the variation in score, on average.

One interpretation is that corps get consistently better day to day. Whatever the reason, the scores march upward with almost clocklike regularity, and at about the same rate for all corps.

If that's true, then you can almost tell how it's going to turn out after the very first shows.

Talk about slotting!