Score Projections for July 17

[thelittleman]

In general, scores are increasing at a more modest rate compared to the early season. Some corps will level off faster than others, leading to a change in the rankings. The projections will change gradually given that they are based on the entire season, not just the last few shows. For example, Madison has moved up to 6th place based on their most recent score, but are still only 9th in the projections.

rnk corps	  last	  pred	  diff	 rate
1  BDEVILS	 89.03	 90.25	 1.22	 0.51
2  CAVIES	  87.95	 89.65	 1.70	 0.50
3  CADETS	  85.70	 88.55	 2.85	 0.51
4  PHANTOM	 86.97	 88.40	 1.43	 0.57
5  BLUECTS	 87.05	 88.35	 1.30	 0.54
6  CROWN	   82.72	 84.95	 2.23	 0.56
7  BKNIGHT	 81.42	 84.85	 3.42	 0.69
8  SCV		 82.22	 84.20	 1.98	 0.44
9  MADISON	 82.75	 83.75	 1.00	 0.53
10  BAC		 81.35	 83.55	 2.20	 0.46
11  GLASSMN	 80.92	 82.45	 1.53	 0.50
12  SPIRIT	  78.47	 79.45	 0.98	 0.44
13  COLTS	   76.72	 79.10	 2.38	 0.51
14  BLUSTRS	 74.05	 77.65	 3.60	 0.54
15  MANDRNS	 74.75	 76.55	 1.80	 0.61
16  XMEN		74.83	 76.55	 1.72	 0.33
17  PACREST	 74.60	 76.45	 1.85	 0.58
18  CAPREG	  73.45	 76.25	 2.80	 0.57
19  SOWIND	  69.58	 70.45	 0.88	 0.40
20  ESPRNZA	 67.15	 69.45	 2.30	 0.42
21  MAGIC	   65.70	 67.95	 2.25	 0.43
22  PIONEER	 61.50	 64.85	 3.35	 0.49
23  CASCADE	 62.25	 62.50	 0.25	 0.06

I don't think these will be too far off. BD didn't do quite as well as your formula predicted, and some odd feeling tells me that there is no way the Cadets are going up 2.85 points tonight.

[Lancerman07]

Louisville

Blue Devils 90.00

Phantom Regiment 87.90

Carolina Crown 83.65

Glassmen 81.75

Spirit 79.35

Southwind 69.90

Pioneer 61.55

Those were obvioulsy rounded so...

BD -0.55

PR -1.05

CC -1.2

GMN +0.05

SOA -0.05

SW -0.25

PIO +1.9

Average error=0.721

Not great, but not bad.

[Lancerman07]

Great Bend

Cavaliers 88.70

Cadets 86.30

Santa Clara Vanguard 83.00

Blue Knights 82.40

Crossmen 75.25

Seattle Cascades 65.80

CAV -1.5

CBC -0.85

SCV -0.5

BK -1.3

XMN +0.1

SEA +0.05

Average Error = 0.717

Louisville Avg Error = 0.721

Overall = 0.719

Edited July 18, 2006 by Lancerman07

[vferrera]

DCI.org has somewhat different scores posted. When I compare the projected v. actual, I get an average error of 1.69. In general, the linear method is over-predicting. That's because it weights all scores equally, even though it's clear that the trends aren't as steep as they were earlier in the season.

corps	   pred	  actual	error
BDEVILS	 90.25	 89.45	 -0.80
CAVIES	  89.65	 87.20	 -2.45
CADETS	  88.55	 85.45	 -3.10
PHANTOM	 88.40	 86.85	 -1.55
BKNIGHT	 84.85	 81.10	 -3.75
CROWN	   84.95	 82.45	 -2.50
SCV		 84.20	 82.50	 -1.70
GLASSMN	 82.45	 81.80	 -0.65
SPIRIT	  79.45	 79.30	 -0.15
XMEN		76.55	 75.35	 -1.20
SOWIND	  70.45	 69.65	 -0.80
PIONEER	 64.85	 63.45	 -1.40
CASCADE	 63.90	 65.85	 1.95