Score Projections for July 17

[vferrera]

In general, scores are increasing at a more modest rate compared to the early season. Some corps will level off faster than others, leading to a change in the rankings. The projections will change gradually given that they are based on the entire season, not just the last few shows. For example, Madison has moved up to 6th place based on their most recent score, but are still only 9th in the projections.

rnk corps	  last	  pred	  diff	 rate
1  BDEVILS	 89.03	 90.25	 1.22	 0.51
2  CAVIES	  87.95	 89.65	 1.70	 0.50
3  CADETS	  85.70	 88.55	 2.85	 0.51
4  PHANTOM	 86.97	 88.40	 1.43	 0.57
5  BLUECTS	 87.05	 88.35	 1.30	 0.54
6  CROWN	   82.72	 84.95	 2.23	 0.56
7  BKNIGHT	 81.42	 84.85	 3.42	 0.69
8  SCV		 82.22	 84.20	 1.98	 0.44
9  MADISON	 82.75	 83.75	 1.00	 0.53
10  BAC		 81.35	 83.55	 2.20	 0.46
11  GLASSMN	 80.92	 82.45	 1.53	 0.50
12  SPIRIT	  78.47	 79.45	 0.98	 0.44
13  COLTS	   76.72	 79.10	 2.38	 0.51
14  BLUSTRS	 74.05	 77.65	 3.60	 0.54
15  MANDRNS	 74.75	 76.55	 1.80	 0.61
16  XMEN		74.83	 76.55	 1.72	 0.33
17  PACREST	 74.60	 76.45	 1.85	 0.58
18  CAPREG	  73.45	 76.25	 2.80	 0.57
19  SOWIND	  69.58	 70.45	 0.88	 0.40
20  ESPRNZA	 67.15	 69.45	 2.30	 0.42
21  MAGIC	   65.70	 67.95	 2.25	 0.43
22  PIONEER	 61.50	 64.85	 3.35	 0.49
23  CASCADE	 62.25	 62.50	 0.25	 0.06

[bdkappasig]

seattle cascades last score was a 65.something.... but it still says 62.25

[vferrera]

seattle cascades last score was a 65.something.... but it still says 62.25

Sorry about that, I misread their score. The projection should be:

rnk corps	   last	  pred	  diff	 rate
23  CASCADE	 65.25	 63.90	 -1.35	 0.17

[jblamb1401]

I haven't been keeping up with your projections.

How have you been doing? Have you compared the actual scores to your projected scores? It would be interesting to post that.

Edited July 17, 2006 by jblamb1401

[g0at]

I haven't been keeping up with your projections.

How have you been doing? Have you compared the actual scores to your projected scores? It would be interesting to post that.

there was a previous thread also...

but no, he is making a projected placement, based on the past scores this summer, their progress, show to show

[vferrera]

I haven't been keeping up with your projections.

How have you been doing? Have you compared the actual scores to your projected scores? It would be interesting to post that.

It's a strictly linear projection based on all the scores since the beginning of the season. It was working pretty well for the first few weeks. But then, it became obvious that the scores were climbing too fast. If you just went by the rate of increase over the first 3 weeks of the season and projected out to Aug. 12, all of the top 12 would have been over 100 pts. Starting around Indy, the scores started to level off a bit. You can see this clearly on the following graph:

http://www.bknights.org/scores/standings.asp

Nearly every corps had a drop in score around July 9, and then the scores go up more slowly. So, yes, the linear method does have some obvious limitations.

I usually post the predicted vs. actual score comparisons the next day, in the same thread. At the end of the season, I might do some further analysis to compare the linear method to more "sophisticated" approaches.

[Lance]

Here were his projections for this past Saturday, July 15th

1 BDEVILS 89.30 2.42 0.51

2 CAVIES 88.90 2.68 0.51

3 CADETS 88.80 4.40 0.58

4 BLUECTS 87.90 2.30 0.58

5 PHANTOM 87.30 1.20 0.58

6 BAC 84.35 2.05 0.58

7 CROWN 84.35 2.45 0.60

8 BKNIGHT 84.25 3.00 0.73

9 SCV 83.60 1.30 0.45

10 MADISON 83.30 2.55 0.56

11 GLASSMN 81.60 0.55 0.51

12 SPIRIT 78.60 0.05 0.45

13 COLTS 78.55 1.85 0.53

14 XMEN 77.50 3.90 0.47

15 BLUSTRS 77.35 2.75 0.59

16 CAPREG 75.65 2.25 0.61

17 MANDRNS 75.35 0.60 0.61

18 PACREST 75.25 0.65 0.58

19 SOWIND 69.65 4.35 0.40

20 MAGIC 69.60 2.45 0.66

21 ESPRNZA 68.60 1.45 0.42

22 PIONEER 64.80 5.05 0.54

23 CASCADE 62.45 -0.20 0.06

And here are the actual results from that night:

1 Blue Devils 89.025

2 The Cavaliers 87.950

3 Phantom Regiment 86.975

4 Bluecoats 86.450

5 The Cadets 85.700

6 Carolina Crown 82.725

7 Santa Clara Vanguard 82.225

8 Boston Crusaders 81.475

9 Blue Knights 81.425

10 Madison Scouts 81.400

11 Glassmen 80.925

12 Spirit from JSU 78.475

13 Colts 76.725

14 Crossmen 74.825

15 Blue Stars 74.050

16 Capital Regiment 73.450

17 Southwind 69.575

18 The Magic 66.100

19 Seattle Cascades 65.250

Pretty close on some, not too close on others, from both shows that night. It's all for fun, anyway, Not to be taken seriously.

[Lancerman07]

Here are my predictions from a different formula...we'll see who's closer from tonight's shows

Louisville

Blue Devils 90.00

Phantom Regiment 87.90

Carolina Crown 83.65

Glassmen 81.75

Spirit 79.35

Southwind 69.90

Pioneer 61.55

Great Bend

Cavaliers 88.70

Cadets 86.30

Santa Clara Vanguard 83.00

Blue Knights 82.40

Crossmen 75.25

Seattle Cascades 65.80

[jblamb1401]

Here are my scores for tonight. I did not round the scores to DCI regulation scores.

Louisville:

Blue Devils 90.364

Phantom Regiment 88.373

Crown 84.209

Glassmen 82.127

Spirit from JSU 79.728

Southwind 70.525

Pioneer 62.007

Great Bend

The Cavaliers 89.171

The Cadets 86.95

Santa Clara Vanguard 83.327

Blue Knights 83.048

Crossmen 75.648

Seattle Cascades 65.95

Also a different formula... Should be interesting to see what happens.

Edited July 18, 2006 by jblamb1401

[jblamb1401]

Louisville: Actual Projected

89.450 90.364

86.850 88.373

82.45 84.209

81.800 82.127

79.300 79.728

69.650 70.525

63.450 62.007

My scores were off by an average of 1.038. No very good. I was higher on all the scores other than Pioneer. I guess I didn't factor in the heat at the show.