Score Projections for Aug. 2

[xbones7480]

Based on linear trend for all shows excluding first 3 weeks of season.

rnk corps	  last	  pred	  diff	 rate
1  CAVIES	  94.05	 95.30	 1.25	 0.41
2  BDEVILS	 93.55	 94.90	 1.35	 0.36
3  PHANTOM	 93.20	 93.90	 0.70	 0.41
4  BLUECTS	 91.45	 92.70	 1.25	 0.35
5  CADETS	  90.90	 91.95	 1.05	 0.32
6  SCV		 89.80	 89.45	 -0.35	0.37
7  CROWN	   87.55	 88.45	 0.90	 0.33
8  BAC		 89.15	 87.70	 -1.45	0.31
9  BKNIGHT	 86.50	 87.30	 0.80	 0.32
10  MADISON	 86.65	 86.60	 -0.05	0.29
11  GLASSMN	 84.90	 85.20	 0.30	 0.26
12  SPIRIT	  84.65	 84.60	 -0.05	0.35
13  COLTS	   81.80	 82.10	 0.30	 0.30
14  XMEN		80.55	 80.75	 0.20	 0.28
15  CAPREG	  78.70	 79.90	 1.20	 0.32
16  BLUSTRS	 79.45	 79.55	 0.10	 0.26
17  SOWIND	  78.60	 77.40	 -1.20	0.44
18  CASCADE	 77.00	 75.80	 -1.20	0.58
19  MANDRNS	 75.00	 75.75	 0.75	 0.18
20  MAGIC	   75.85	 74.65	 -1.20	0.40
21  PACREST	 73.20	 73.80	 0.60	 0.07
22  ESPRNZA	 73.70	 72.85	 -0.85	0.33
23  PIONEER	 69.45	 70.00	 0.55	 0.35

You have the Crossmen with an 80.55... I think this is too low... last night they had an 81.25... If Bones shows up that number will definitely go up!!! I can see them beating the Colts on Saturday.

Allentown has always been home to the Crossmen (even before YEA! moved there). I guarantee they will get a standing "O" when they walk through that gate!

[ScribeToo]

You have the Crossmen with an 80.55... I think this is too low... last night they had an 81.25...

I think he posted subsequently (and frequently in other threads) that this predictor has about a 1.01 +/- average rate of error.. X-men were predicted only a half a point off where they actually ended up.. seems pretty accurate to me.

[Phantombari1]

I'd like to see how these type of projections have stacked up the past few years. I have a sneaky suspicion that come finals week those linear trends get thrown out the window!

[vferrera]

I'd like to see how these type of projections have stacked up the past few years. I have a sneaky suspicion that come finals week those linear trends get thrown out the window!

This is the first year I've done this on a regular basis. After the season, I'll post a more detailed analysis of how well this linear predictor works and how it can be improved.

It's worth noting that as of right now, the projected score for the DCI Champion is 99.20. That looks about right to me.