Score Projections for Aug. 2

[vferrera]

Based on linear trend for all shows excluding first 3 weeks of season.

rnk corps	  last	  pred	  diff	 rate
1  CAVIES	  94.05	 95.30	 1.25	 0.41
2  BDEVILS	 93.55	 94.90	 1.35	 0.36
3  PHANTOM	 93.20	 93.90	 0.70	 0.41
4  BLUECTS	 91.45	 92.70	 1.25	 0.35
5  CADETS	  90.90	 91.95	 1.05	 0.32
6  SCV		 89.80	 89.45	 -0.35	0.37
7  CROWN	   87.55	 88.45	 0.90	 0.33
8  BAC		 89.15	 87.70	 -1.45	0.31
9  BKNIGHT	 86.50	 87.30	 0.80	 0.32
10  MADISON	 86.65	 86.60	 -0.05	0.29
11  GLASSMN	 84.90	 85.20	 0.30	 0.26
12  SPIRIT	  84.65	 84.60	 -0.05	0.35
13  COLTS	   81.80	 82.10	 0.30	 0.30
14  XMEN		80.55	 80.75	 0.20	 0.28
15  CAPREG	  78.70	 79.90	 1.20	 0.32
16  BLUSTRS	 79.45	 79.55	 0.10	 0.26
17  SOWIND	  78.60	 77.40	 -1.20	0.44
18  CASCADE	 77.00	 75.80	 -1.20	0.58
19  MANDRNS	 75.00	 75.75	 0.75	 0.18
20  MAGIC	   75.85	 74.65	 -1.20	0.40
21  PACREST	 73.20	 73.80	 0.60	 0.07
22  ESPRNZA	 73.70	 72.85	 -0.85	0.33
23  PIONEER	 69.45	 70.00	 0.55	 0.35

[SkyRyder_FMM]

Based on linear trend for all shows excluding first 3 weeks of season.

rnk corps	  last	  pred	  diff	 rate
1  CAVIES	  94.05	 95.30	 1.25	 0.41
2  BDEVILS	 93.55	 94.90	 1.35	 0.36
3  PHANTOM	 93.20	 93.90	 0.70	 0.41
4  BLUECTS	 91.45	 92.70	 1.25	 0.35
5  CADETS	  90.90	 91.95	 1.05	 0.32
6  SCV		 89.80	 89.45	 -0.35	0.37
7  CROWN	   87.55	 88.45	 0.90	 0.33
8  BAC		 89.15	 87.70	 -1.45	0.31
9  BKNIGHT	 86.50	 87.30	 0.80	 0.32
10  MADISON	 86.65	 86.60	 -0.05	0.29
11  GLASSMN	 84.90	 85.20	 0.30	 0.26
12  SPIRIT	  84.65	 84.60	 -0.05	0.35
13  COLTS	   81.80	 82.10	 0.30	 0.30
14  XMEN		80.55	 80.75	 0.20	 0.28
15  CAPREG	  78.70	 79.90	 1.20	 0.32
16  BLUSTRS	 79.45	 79.55	 0.10	 0.26
17  SOWIND	  78.60	 77.40	 -1.20	0.44
18  CASCADE	 77.00	 75.80	 -1.20	0.58
19  MANDRNS	 75.00	 75.75	 0.75	 0.18
20  MAGIC	   75.85	 74.65	 -1.20	0.40
21  PACREST	 73.20	 73.80	 0.60	 0.07
22  ESPRNZA	 73.70	 72.85	 -0.85	0.33
23  PIONEER	 69.45	 70.00	 0.55	 0.35

Looks like a prediction for the lowest scoring finals since before the abandonment of the tick system post 1983 ^0^

(yeah, I know it's a typo - 12 rather than 2 - just couldn't resist)

[Hrothgar15]

Cavies only win with a 94.05 at World Championship Finals?

What is this, the '70s?

Edited August 2, 2006 by Hrothgar15

[vferrera]

oops should be AUG 2 not AUG 12. I make a tiny boo-boo.

[RegimentContra94]

Scores always seem to jump up during finals week. The winner will score at least 97.

[ScribeToo]

Cavies only win with a 94.05 at World Championship Finals?

What is this, the '70s?

Well, aside from the fact that he was actually predicting tonight's scores, not next Saturday's.. the column you're reading is the "Last" column -- that being their latest score. The column you want to look at is "Pred" -- the predicted score.

Hope that helps.

[vferrera]

Well, aside from the fact that he was actually predicting tonight's scores, not next Saturday's.. the column you're reading is the "Last" column -- that being their latest score. The column you want to look at is "Pred" -- the predicted score.

Hope that helps.

That's right. The format is:

last score : predicted score : difference (pred-last) : rate of improvement (pts/day)

The mods fixed the title. I love those guys. Now can you change all of my previous posts to make them intelligent and witty?

Edited August 2, 2006 by vferrera

[vferrera]

Comparison of actual to predicted scores. Average error 1.01.

SCV, Glassmen and PC did much better than expected.

corps	   pred	  actual	error
CAVIES	  95.30	 94.90	 -0.40
BLUECTS	 92.70	 92.85	 0.15
CADETS	  91.95	 92.55	 0.60
SCV		 89.45	 91.75	 2.30
BAC		 87.70	 88.45	 0.75
BKNIGHT	 87.30	 86.75	 -0.55
GLASSMN	 85.20	 86.60	 1.40
XMEN		80.75	 81.25	 0.50
CAPREG	  79.90	 79.55	 -0.35
BLUSTRS	 79.55	 78.30	 -1.25
SOWIND	  77.40	 76.55	 -0.85
PACREST	 73.80	 77.20	 3.40
MAGIC	   74.65	 75.45	 0.80
PIONEER	 70.00	 69.15	 -0.85

[I play the baritone good]

disregard this post

Edited August 3, 2006 by I play the baritone good

[decompressed]

Yes, in a weeks time, all corps become pristine clean and the winner gets a 99?

Will it happen this year? Or....are show designs better but excecution is suffering because corps members are reaching the limits of what they are being asked to do physically?

I remember watching Cavies Spin Cycle thinking that they finally designed a show their kids couldn't quite handle. Unlike technology, at some point, these kids are simply going to struggle doing what they are being asked to do.

As always....my 2 cents.

Peace!