Competitive Inertia: The Captions

[Dale Bari]

Since 1983 (arguably the dawn of the modern age, when Cadets won the first time, and the pretenders either folded are started going down: 27th Lancers, Bridgemen, Suncoast, Spirit, Troopers, etc), only ONE corps outside of the Championship Circle (SCV, BD, Cadets, Cavies, Madison, Star, PR) has ever won a SINGLE CAPTION across ALL EVENTS IN FINALS WEEK. [emphasis added]

1983 is a good marker, since it was the last year of the tick system. So, 1984 would be even better then, and I doubt it changes the outcome any.

Edited March 19, 2008 by Dale Bari

[Bruckner8]

Memory could be failing me, but didn't Suncoast do something really impressive in brass in quarters or semis in 1988 or 1989??

Yes, in 1986 they won Field Brass at Finals, and in 1984 they won Field Brass at Semis.

I took them out in my assumption, since they're long gone (I called them one of the pretenders in my OP)

If you want the rest of the pretender caption wins in that timeframe:

Spirit Guard in 1986 Finals

Spirit Guard in 1987 Finals

Bridgemen Perc Exec 1983 Semis

[Dale Bari]

Yes, in 1986 they won Field Brass at Finals, and in 1984 they won Field Brass at Semis.

I took them out in my assumption, since they're long gone (I called them one of the pretenders in my OP)

If you want the rest of the pretender caption wins in that timeframe:

Spirit Guard in 1986 Finals

Spirit Guard in 1987 Finals

Bridgemen Perc Exec 1983 Semis

Not to slight the guards' contributions, but their scores did not count toward the actual corps' scores until much more recently. (2004?)

And if you move the beginning of the time frame to 1984, that means only Suncoast Field Brass at 84 Semis & 86 Finals and Bluecoats Brass at 07 Qtrs are the only exceptions. Interesting that those are all in the brass arena.

Even if you include every exception, all but 1 occurred in the 80's (and within 5 years of each other to boot).

[euponitone]

But how does your point fit within realm of CI? I don't care if we disagree on placements, or who we thought should be placed where. That's for the 1000 other threads in DCP.

You haven't added or subtracted from the CI Theory. All you've done is disagree with the placement.

Again, I don't care about Bluecoats (well, I do, but that's for another day!), and I'm not trying to pump them. I'm merely looking at the historical record and observing the facts. It's quite an impressive fact, that one judge in one caption on one Finals-week night either:

1) Bucked CI altogether by "allowing" Bloo to win a caption

OR

2) Thought that Bloo had built up some CI of their own, within his caption (precedent set over the summer, and the prior year 3rd place finish at Finals)

OR (and this might your take)

3) All judges were wrong in the recent past with regard to Blooo's rise in brass.

Finally, be careful for choosing #3, cuz you'll be agreeing with the overall construct CI, and that non-Champ Circle corps have no shot, b/c you believe they havent even built up any CI of their own. (Cuz you think the judges were wrong during the buildup of CI for the lesser corps anyway)

When I have oodles of time, maybe I'll add one more condition to CI: That a corps has to first win a Caption on Finals night before even being allowed in the TOP 3! Everywhere I look, I see CI, and no one has changed my mind.

Lol....sorry, I wasnt thinking that hard about it. I wasnt trying to write a dissertation or anything, and I think I made that pretty clear in my post. I even admitted that it was an impressive stat - just wasnt ready to go into it at the time...

[audiodb]

Of course, placing at the top in certain captions ought to be indicative of placing in the Top 3 overall, so I'm not sure how much of that history is tautological rather than probative. In any case, it is rather interesting.

In other words....has anyone ever made top 3, yet never won a caption in any round of DCI week?

[Dale Bari]

In other words....has anyone ever made top 3, yet never won a caption in any round of DCI week?

You mean, in the same season? Or ever?

No corps except the 6 current and former champs have finished in the Top 3 since 1983 (7, if you include Star). So, that's a null set in answer to your question if you mean "ever".

If you mean in the same season, that's a good question, but I'm sure that it's happened. I think Star '91 won without winning a caption outright, so I'm sure a corps has placed Top 3 w/o winning a caption that year.

Does that answer your question?

After checking, there were 2 corps that placed Top 3 but didn't win a single caption all week: 1989 Cavaliers (3rd), 2002 Blue Devils (2nd).

There were some that were close: 1999 Cavies (3rd) only won Perc Perf in Finals, 2005 Phantom (3rd) won only 1 caption (didn't check what it was). Honorable mention goes to 2005 Cavaliers (2nd) who won only 2 captions in 3 nights. (Yes, that means that 2005 Cadets only lost 3 captions in 3 shows.)

There were 2 corps that placed Top 3 but didn't win any captions on FINALS night only (since we're only using the Finals placement): 1997 SCV (3rd), 1995 Cadets (2nd).

That was a hurried check, so maybe I missed some others, but there weren't many.

[audiodb]

You mean, in the same season? Or ever?

Ever.

Well, let's see....

Blue Stars (top 3 in '72 and '73) won GE in the 1972 prelims.

Troopers (top 3 in '73) won M&M several times in DCI's early years.

27th Lancers (top 3 in '80) won GE in the 1980 finals.

Bridgemen (top 3 in '80) won percussion at finals three straight years.

All the past champions have won a caption at some point. So that's it - no one has made top 3 at DCI without winning a caption during a DCI championship week event. So I don't think that "winning a caption" is a requirement of CI, but rather, just another event that coincides with the top-3 finish (which is the real CI-breaker).

[idontwan2know]

You've done a great job documenting a phenomenon - that all corps who have gone on to win championships achieved certain benchmarks before doing so. But the phenomenon is open to many possible explanations other than the idea that corps have to gain street cred with the judges before they will be willing to award that corps a championship. It could just as easily be said that creating a championship level drum corps is a multi-year process and your statistics bear that out just as well. You have a theory that fits the facts, but that doesn't mean it is correct.

To truly test your theory, you need to look for examples of either: 1) corps that could/should have won championships but didn't and hadn't met the benchmarks you've observed, or 2) corps that could/should have placed lower but didn't and had "high competitive inertia". It's an extremely subjective test and still doesn't prove the mechanism (credibility with the judges) that you propose, but if you could find enough examples with broad consensus it would definitely prove that the phenomenon exists, whatever its root cause.

Note: I don't necessarily disagree with your theory, I just think you're being a little too credulous about the numbers supporting it when there are other reasonable explanations for the statistics.

[Bruckner8]

You've done a great job documenting a phenomenon - that all corps who have gone on to win championships achieved certain benchmarks before doing so. But the phenomenon is open to many possible explanations other than the idea that corps have to gain street cred with the judges before they will be willing to award that corps a championship. It could just as easily be said that creating a championship level drum corps is a multi-year process and your statistics bear that out just as well. You have a theory that fits the facts, but that doesn't mean it is correct.

To truly test your theory, you need to look for examples of either: 1) corps that could/should have won championships but didn't and hadn't met the benchmarks you've observed, or 2) corps that could/should have placed lower but didn't and had "high competitive inertia". It's an extremely subjective test and still doesn't prove the mechanism (credibility with the judges) that you propose, but if you could find enough examples with broad consensus it would definitely prove that the phenomenon exists, whatever its root cause.

Note: I don't necessarily disagree with your theory, I just think you're being a little too credulous about the numbers supporting it when there are other reasonable explanations for the statistics.

Your points are well-taken, and I covered both in the original CI post back in November. Be careful about equating CONVERSE arguments with the established ones, however.

http://www.drumcorpsplanet.com/forums/inde...howtopic=107285

CI basically looks at the historical record, and then concludes:

1) Before one can win, one must first place 2nd or 3rd (it's never NOT happened...except the first year of DCI DUH! And note that this does not claim that the CONVERSE is true: If one places 2nd or 3rd then one must win. But to your point, it's always fun to test that too, and I covered it in the OP) To debunk this, you'll have a winner that did not finish 2nd or 3rd previously (and it should be close to the championship year, cuz if it's 20 yrs removed, it really has no bearing.)

2) One must have consistent leadership. This is where all the credibility is built up. This is where excellence is demanded. This is where communication is established. This is where competent staffs are hired, and deadweight is fired. Again, it doesn't claim the CONVERSE: If one has consitent leadership, then one will win. It only observers (and concludes) that if one wins then one has consistent leadership. To debunk it, you'll have to have a year where a corps wins w/o consistent leadership (and be ready to argue the definition of leadership)

Star of Indiana's rise was a nice test of CI. They came and went in 9 years, from 1985 to 1993. No one can argue the leadership question. No one can argue about the means of the organization. Their recruitment efforts were top-notch, so they had no trouble filling spots with the best talent.

Their organziers KNEW they needed to build "street cred" quickly, so they hired most of the current DCI Super Duper Staff. Even with every advanatge from the git-go, it still took them 7 years to win (and they came in 3rd the prior year). Gawd I wish they were still around, pushing the rest of DCI to levels of excellence not seen since. I'm sure Cadets miss them too.

[BigSnareline]

Since 1983 (arguably the dawn of the modern age, when Cadets won the first time, and the pretenders either folded are started going down:

I have to ask - what do you mean by PRETENDERS?