Too much time on my hands....

[93Bluecoat]

With no show tonight and not much else to do....I just did a little trend analysis on the top 6. Here's what I came up with (of course this is completely impractical, but fun nonetheless):

1. Cadets 99.95 (yes, that's right, practically perfect in every caption)

2. Phantom 98.3

3. Cavies 97.12

4. Bluecoats 95.43

5. Madison 94.16

6. Blue Devils 93.2

I focused on just the trend in the last 3 years (if you add in Madison trend from jumping from 14th to 8th and the scores that went with it, it puts them even closer to the Bluecoats). The Blue Devils are the only corps in the middle of a two year trend where their scores went down. Every other corps has had at least one or more years of positive score gains. It would appear the Bluecoats have the most momentum, with score gains totalling 3.7 over the last two seasons (more than anyone else).

I really don't think this is the way things will play out, especially after seeing the scores from the first couple of shows, but it's fun to speculate......

DW

[GGarrett]

So my money is best invested with a steady growth corps, as opposed to an instant gratification winner like "almost perfect" ...

in that it could crash and I would lose my whole investment and have the holding be worthless in the long run.

Now, a chance I could take would be with one that has trended down in recent past followings, but could show promising gains

if I am patient, right?

Because you know I'm just so nervous about my investments, and you brokers are all in it just for the commissions anyway.

Perhaps a pie chart or a graph that would show a steady rise would sell me better on some of the unmentioned past winners

that should not be forgotten, and are currently available at bargain prices...

:P

OK... I keed I keed... nice work on the trend analysis... that's fun to see things that way! ^OO^

[Silver_King]

i think BD is going to bounce back this year.

[93Bluecoat]

i think BD is going to bounce back this year.

I tend to agree. Obviously trend analysis means nothing in drum corps because the variables are so wide. Just interesting to look at the direction corps have been going.

[93Bluecoat]

So my money is best invested with a steady growth corps, as opposed to an instant gratification winner like "almost perfect" ...

in that it could crash and I would lose my whole investment and have the holding be worthless in the long run.

Now, a chance I could take would be with one that has trended down in recent past followings, but could show promising gains

if I am patient, right?

Because you know I'm just so nervous about my investments, and you brokers are all in it just for the commissions anyway.

Perhaps a pie chart or a graph that would show a steady rise would sell me better on some of the unmentioned past winners

that should not be forgotten, and are currently available at bargain prices...

:P

OK... I keed I keed... nice work on the trend analysis... that's fun to see things that way! ^OO^

#### Garret, I thought I had too much time on my hands! Haha.

DW

[jwillis35]

Nice post, Darren.

So here are some interesting stats:

When it comes to years ending in 6, as has been reported a few times, the Blue Devils have been the clear winner, taking the title in 1976, 1986, a tie in 1996, and now…well, I guess we will see. With each of these championships the Blue Devils were coming off 3rd place finishes from the previous years (1975, 1985, and 1995). This year they are coming off a 4th place finish, so the odds are still good, but not great. Let’s call them the frontrunner for now at 3:1 odds.

Last year’s champion, Cadets, were not top 12 in 1976, 4th in 1986, and 3rd in 1996. If they had been 5th in 1976 there would be an easy trend, and a 2nd place finish this year would almost be assured (in theory). If we look at the previous years, in each case the corps’ placement was lower in the years ending in 6, than it was during years ending in 5. In 1975 they were 11th, in 1976 they fell out of top 12; in 1985 they won the title, in 1986 they came in 4th; and in 1995 they were second, falling to 3rd the next year. This trend seems more accurate, and it seems a fall to 2nd place is in the works. 5:1 odds for the title.

The Cavaliers have been the Garfield of the 80s, the Blue Devils of the late 70s early 80s. They have won 4 of the last 6 titles, and their design concepts along with their unique ability to customize original and arranged music for field has made them the standard-bearer in the activity today. In 1976 they were 7th, in 1986 they were 3rd, and in 1996 they were 4th; so the trend is not obvious—up 4 places, then down 1—or is it? This would be the year for them to move up 4 placements, from 1996, which they were 4th. That would put them in the winner’s circle, except I still think BD’s odds are better. Let’s call the Cavies odds 4:1.

Phantom Regiment was 4th in 1976, they were 10th in 1986, and tied for the title in 1996—down 6, up 10. Not much to go on here. In previous years to these they were 10th in 1975, 8th in 1985, and 5th in 1995. In two of the three instances they improved their placement (going from 10th to 4th in 76, and 5th to 1st in 1996). But these are twenty years apart, and if this were to hold true, then 2006 would mirror 1986 in which they moved down in placement. In 1985 they went from 8th to 10th in 1986, down two placements. I see no more than that, making our best odds that they will finish 5th this year. Their odds for a title are 8:1.

The Canton Bluecoats were not a division I corps in 1976, but were a power in D2. They were not a top 12 corps in 1986, but were coming on strong. By 1996 they were a top 12 corps and came in 7th. They were 7th in 1995 as well. Clearly, the trend for the Bluecoats must be looked at differently. Consider their most recent placements since dropping out of the top 12 in 1999 (the only time out of the top 12 since they first achieved such status in 1987). In 2000 they jumped back into the top 12 to take 12th place. They followed this with an 8th place finish in 2001, 7th place in 2002, 7th place in 2003, 6th place in 2004, and 5th place in 2005. Not much to go on except to say that they have improved each year since 2000 with the exception of 2003 where they held onto 7th place—but they didn’t fall. The odds here are that they move up 1 spot to 4th, or they hold onto 5th. 10:1 odds for a title.

More later.

Jonathan

[MUMarchingthunder04]

I wouldn't mind seeing it turn out this way :)

[bluecoats88]

Nice post, Darren.

So here are some interesting stats:

When it comes to years ending in 6, as has been reported a few times, the Blue Devils have been the clear winner, taking the title in 1976, 1986, a tie in 1996, and now…well, I guess we will see. With each of these championships the Blue Devils were coming off 3rd place finishes from the previous years (1975, 1985, and 1995). This year they are coming off a 4th place finish, so the odds are still good, but not great. Let’s call them the frontrunner for now at 3:1 odds.

Last year’s champion, Cadets, were not top 12 in 1976, 4th in 1986, and 3rd in 1996. If they had been 5th in 1976 there would be an easy trend, and a 2nd place finish this year would almost be assured (in theory). If we look at the previous years, in each case the corps’ placement was lower in the years ending in 6, than it was during years ending in 5. In 1975 they were 11th, in 1976 they fell out of top 12; in 1985 they won the title, in 1986 they came in 4th; and in 1995 they were second, falling to 3rd the next year. This trend seems more accurate, and it seems a fall to 2nd place is in the works. 5:1 odds for the title.

The Cavaliers have been the Garfield of the 80s, the Blue Devils of the late 70s early 80s. They have won 4 of the last 6 titles, and their design concepts along with their unique ability to customize original and arranged music for field has made them the standard-bearer in the activity today. In 1976 they were 7th, in 1986 they were 3rd, and in 1996 they were 4th; so the trend is not obvious—up 4 places, then down 1—or is it? This would be the year for them to move up 4 placements, from 1996, which they were 4th. That would put them in the winner’s circle, except I still think BD’s odds are better. Let’s call the Cavies odds 4:1.

Phantom Regiment was 4th in 1976, they were 10th in 1986, and tied for the title in 1996—down 6, up 10. Not much to go on here. In previous years to these they were 10th in 1975, 8th in 1985, and 5th in 1995. In two of the three instances they improved their placement (going from 10th to 4th in 76, and 5th to 1st in 1996). But these are twenty years apart, and if this were to hold true, then 2006 would mirror 1986 in which they moved down in placement. In 1985 they went from 8th to 10th in 1986, down two placements. I see no more than that, making our best odds that they will finish 5th this year. Their odds for a title are 8:1.

The Canton Bluecoats were not a division I corps in 1976, but were a power in D2. They were not a top 12 corps in 1986, but were coming on strong. By 1996 they were a top 12 corps and came in 7th. They were 7th in 1995 as well. Clearly, the trend for the Bluecoats must be looked at differently. Consider their most recent placements since dropping out of the top 12 in 1999 (the only time out of the top 12 since they first achieved such status in 1987). In 2000 they jumped back into the top 12 to take 12th place. They followed this with an 8th place finish in 2001, 7th place in 2002, 7th place in 2003, 6th place in 2004, and 5th place in 2005. Not much to go on except to say that they have improved each year since 2000 with the exception of 2003 where they held onto 7th place—but they didn’t fall. The odds here are that they move up 1 spot to 4th, or they hold onto 5th. 10:1 odds for a title.

More later.

Jonathan

so what you are saying is the odds favor this placement

1. Blue Devils & Cavaliers (Tied)

3. Cadets (no second spot for them to fall to with the tie)

4. Bluecoats

5. Phantom

I can live with that.