forget blu ray

[Bob J]

Wow, and I thought the camera work at the quarterfinals made me queasy, just imagine it in 3D!

[Kamarag]

Sorry, but the industry is not headed for direct downloads just yet. There are still too many issues to be worked out among the telecoms and cable companies in terms of bandwidth and download speed that have not been worked out yet.

Really? Tell that to Apple, Netflix, Verizon and Comcast. I buy movies and tv shows all the time via iTunes. We use our Playstation 3 to stream movies from Netflix, and it works really, really well. Verizon FIOS and Comcast are already streaming on-demand viewing.

Edited February 4, 2010 by Kamarag

[Peel Paint]

3D is not aimed at people who multi-task while watching movies. It is made for those folks who watch the movie, and want to appreciate it in 3D. It is not for everyone, just like Blu ray itself is not for everyone, but it is here now as players and televisions go on sale(players are already on sale), and when Sony waves its magic wand, 15 million plus PS3 will have it in an instant.

...I brought 20 friends with me to see Pixar's up at the Disney Digital Theater on the Disney lot in Burbank. Of those twenty friends, fully 15 of them were totally interested in getting 3D in their house when it comes to market. When you combine that with the millions of folks that have seen Avatar, the interest is most definitely there.

I realize the glasses would only be worn when watching 3D programming (not just 3D films); for viewing other, non-3D programming on the same 3D set, the viewer wouldn't wear the glasses. I understand that. When I say people don't want to wear glasses that make everything else look funny, I mean the room, the view out the window, the baby they're playing with, the crossword puzzle they're doing, the magazine in their lap that they read during commercials, the cookbook they're referring to in the kitchen, and so on. It's a pain in the butt to keep juggling the glasses.

On a product that demands full attention, including full-length films without commercials, and video games, where people don't multitask, 3D TV has a greater chance of success than in broadcast TV. For every new AV format that catches on (HDTV, DVD...), there are many more that stay very niche (BluRay, still) or die a quick or lingering death. Just throwing a dart at the dartboard, the odds are against it. And don't be misled by how many of your friends think it's worth paying for or how many manufacturers are racing in. In the history of flop formats, those kinds of factors have been poor prognosticators by themselves of wide market success.

[deftguy]

Really? Tell that to Apple, Netflix, Verizon and Comcast. I buy movies and tv shows all the time via iTunes. We use our Playstation 3 to stream movies from Netflix, and it works really, really well. Verizon FIOS and Comcast are already streaming on-demand viewing.

Okay, Let's look at this more carefully. Apple and Netflix have to pass through Verizon, AT&T and Comcast to get to your house. Let's say they begin slapping bandwidth caps on viewers because these downloads are passing through their system - clogging it up and preventing their own VOD from flowing freely(they all pass through the same pipline if I am not mistaken). Netflix and Apple take a hit so the telecoms and cable can push their own product. This equals fractured environment, and nothing grows fast in a fractured environment.

I have two PS3, and Netflix does not come close to the quality you get from Blu ray disc.

Apple is not making much of any money on iTunes, it uses movies, music, and television shows to sell ipods, and feed its ecco system. Their movies sales are abysmal, but renting movies and television shows it does much better. But what about folks that do not own apple products?

U-verse and Fios is not taking off as well as the telecoms would like because of the high prices it charges. Comcast is suffering the same fate.

Now do get me wrong, I do alot of streaming myself via Netflix, Hulu, and two dozen other sources via my PS3. But my preferred viewing is true 1080p with lossless audio, and not any of the sources you list offer that.

Research has shown their is a convenience consumer, and there is a quality consumer. Convenience consumers give up the quality for the convenience of portability, and quality consumers prefer...well quality, which you don't get with downloads or streaming.

[Kamarag]

Now do get me wrong, I do alot of streaming myself via Netflix, Hulu, and two dozen other sources via my PS3. But my preferred viewing is true 1080p with lossless audio, and not any of the sources you list offer that.

Research has shown their is a convenience consumer, and there is a quality consumer. Convenience consumers give up the quality for the convenience of portability, and quality consumers prefer...well quality, which you don't get with downloads or streaming.

Not yet, but it's coming, and sooner than later. Remember, when DVD first hit, the quality gain was marginal until studios started releasing optimized discs. HDTV wasn't as good initially as it is now either. Internet streaming gets better every day (YouTube has gone to HD, and is now testing HTML5/H.264 and is going to move away from Flash).

Streaming and digital downloading are indeed the future, make no mistake, and we're not that far away from those technologies working at BlueRay quality.

[84BDsop]

We already have drum corps in 3D.....it's called actually going to a show and sitting in the stands...

[deftguy]

I realize the glasses would only be worn when watching 3D programming (not just 3D films); for viewing other, non-3D programming on the same 3D set, the viewer wouldn't wear the glasses. I understand that. When I say people don't want to wear glasses that make everything else look funny, I mean the room, the view out the window, the baby they're playing with, the crossword puzzle they're doing, the magazine in their lap that they read during commercials, the cookbook they're referring to in the kitchen, and so on. It's a pain in the butt to keep juggling the glasses.

If they are doing all of these other things, then they are not really watching the movie. When I sit down to watch a movie, I have pretty much completed all of those task, and I just want to relax, concentrate, and immerse myself in to the picture I am viewing. These kinds of distractions ruin a movie experience, so those have to be done BEFORE I sit down to watch.

On a product that demands full attention, including full-length films without commercials, and video games, where people don't multitask, 3D TV has a greater chance of success than in broadcast TV. For every new AV format that catches on (HDTV, DVD...), there are many more that stay very niche (BluRay, still) or die a quick or lingering death. Just throwing a dart at the dartboard, the odds are against it. And don't be misled by how many of your friends think it's worth paying for or how many manufacturers are racing in. In the history of flop formats, those kinds of factors have been poor prognosticators by themselves of wide market success.

I think Blu ray has gone beyond niche status as of 2009. When almost every major online and BM retailer is using your product as a loss leader to get people in the isles shopping, you are far beyond niche. When you sell almost two million discs in two months, you are far beyond niche status. When Blu ray players began to outsell DVD players on Amazon, you are beyond niche. When you have ultra high end audio and video companies offering players(not just Sony, Panasonic, or Pioneer), you are no longer a niche product. When you have a product that covers from a $20,000 dollar Goldmund Blu ray player, all the way to a $99 dollar player from Walmart, you are no longer niche. DVD sales were down 13% last year, while Blu ray sales are up 186% from last year, hardly stats you get from a niche product. In the week between December 13 through the 21st, Blu ray sold $86 million dollars worth of disc, hardly niche sales volume. Blu ray is now up to 20% of all disc sales(on average), which puts it firmly out of the niche status, and pretty much into the mainstream.

Keep in mind, every video format that Hollywood has supported, it took off. VHS and DVD both were a success, but Laserdisc remained a niche product. Folks said that HDTV was going to flop, but it did not. Folks said VHS was going to flop, but it didn't. Folks said that DVD was never going to overtake VHS, and it did. Now you have folks saying that Blu ray will not be as successful as DVD was. We'll see, but there is one indication already a-foot. Blu ray has grown faster in its first four years than DVD did in its first four years. That should tell somebody something.

[deftguy]

Not yet, but it's coming, and sooner than later. Remember, when DVD first hit, the quality gain was marginal until studios started releasing optimized discs.

HDTV wasn't as good initially as it is now either. Internet streaming gets better every day (YouTube has gone to HD, and is now testing HTML5/H.264 and is going to move away from Flash).

Streaming and digital downloading are indeed the future, make no mistake, and we're not that far away from those technologies working at BlueRay quality.

Here is the rub, you are not going to be able to compress your way to quality. Somewhere along the way you are going to have to increase bandwidth and speed, and that side of the equation is moving at glacial pace, far behind research on encoder efficiency.

I have seen youTubes HD offerings, and while it looks good on my 24" computer screen, it still looks horrible on my 52", 65" and 120" screens. With consumers buying larger and larger televisions, it will have to look good on these sizes before it is ready for prime time.

Right now HTML5 development is basically stalled with one side of the HTML5 working group supporting H.264, and the other side supporting Ogg Theora. One side doubt that Ogg Theora can deliver the goods(it is far behind H.264 in efficiency), and the other side worries about IP infringement with H.264. This is where things are currently at, so things are not moving all that fast. Meanwhile Blu ray disc association has approved 3D(something that still cannot be done online), and is now taking a look at 4K for the future. Keep in mind, The BDA does have a 100gb disc that almost all Blu ray players can play already in the bag for use, so 4K on Blu ray is a big possibility.

I cannot disagree that the future is downloading. Where I disagree with most folks(especially techies) is the timing. IMO, development is not moving all that fast, and certainly not as fast as all of the development on the Blu ray disc.

[Bob J]

We already have drum corps in 3D.....it's called actually going to a show and sitting in the stands...

Sam, you are SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO old school!!

[SoundmanG]

...The Consumer Electronic industry is already looking at 4K resolution, and if it comes to fruition, that pushes downloads and flash drives way into the future.

Forget 4K, last year at NAB I saw an 8K system already being tested by two companies in Japan and the UK. Talk about a bandwidth problem. It made today's version of broadcast HD look like an old VHS tape.

The bottom line in all of this will be content. You can create the most beautiful, technologically advanced media system in the world but if you're not delivering what people want to see it will never fly.