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Why don't Finals comebacks happen?


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I would disagree a little on this. Alot of years, the top 3 shows have been designed very well. So in theory, a better performance by one corps over another in any caption could be able to change the outcome, or a bad performance by a corps should in theory be able to drop them. However, it tends not to be this way. except when the judges are actually wanting it to be that way. This is my opinion after being around DCI for 35 years now.

And 99 SCV is the perfect example to illustrate your point. The elevation of performance level enhanced and excellent design ... but it was the performance that made the difference and not the design.

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Although these corps did not turn out championships in what I'm about to discuss, I would consider them upsets on the opposite side of the coin. The corps with the most consecutive 2nd place finishes.

In succession:

SCV 85-88 - 4 years straight titling in 89

Phantom 77-79 - 3 straight years not titling until 1996

Cavies 90,91 and titled in 92, 95

Here's a deeper look at top 3 since DCI was formed ... pretty freaky numbers

Total 3rd placements:

Blue Devils 8

SCVanguard 8

The Cadets 5

The Cavaliers 6

Phantom Reg 3

3rd Totals: 30 of 39 = 77%

Total 2nds:

SCV 7

BD 7

Cadets 6

Phantom Regiment 5

Cavaliers 4

Total 2nds = 29 between these corps in 39 Years = 74%

Wins Totals:

Blue Devils 13 (2 ties) 11 outright

The Cadets 9 (1 tie) 8 outright

Cavaliers 7 (1 tie) 6 outright

Santa Clara 6 (1 tie) 5 outright

Phantom Regiment 2 (1 tie) 1 outright

Total = 32 + 3 tied (35) wins out of 39 = 90%

100% of the time, these 5 corps are in the top 3 since 1972's formation of DCI

Total Top 3 numbers by corps:

BD 28

SCV 22

Cadets 20

Cavies 17

Phantom 10

Add Madison Scouts into the numbers and it gets even crazier

Pushing total wins to 37 and 95%

Total 3rds at 1 = 6 corps total of 30 and 77%

Total 2nd at 2 = 6 corps total of 31 and 79.5%

When you look at these types of performance/dominating numbers amongst a grouping of 5 corps ... it's no wonder there isn't more movement during finals week ... moreso from Semis to Finals. On the flipside, when you have so few groups vying for a top 3 spot year in year out ... odds would predict there being more than 1 anomaly of a corps winning Semis and losing Finals.

I had considered adding Star of Indiana into my calculations but they are no longer active .... I'm only using numbers of corps that are still active to this day within DCI. Hope you find this as interesting as I did.

Edited by supersop
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PR were excellent and deserved the title. But, as you might guess you won't get a lot of argument from me on the performce comments. It was even more obvious during the reading of the caption winners... when BD took the majority of them (GE, Guard, Ott) there was modest applause.... then percussion for PR was read and it went off the charts. All this again speaks to the necessary ingredient - drama (that is, drama in the show, not in the stands)....gotta have it or a comeback ain't happening.

well, and let's be honest. Phantom's percussion was off the charts good, and BD's was hurting them. look at the recaps...it affected ensemble music as well

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I think comebacks don't usually happen, because usually the best corps is leading during that week. The only time someone has come from behind in 08, it shouldn't have happened. Phantom never should have won, and in all honesty, probably shouldn't have even come in 2nd. Blue Devils and Cavaliers had much better performance throughout the entire week of finals.

In 03 I think we could have seen an upset, as Cavaliers may have had a better performance than Blue Devils on finals night. I think 99 SCV should have probably had an outright win over Blue Devils. And in 2000, I thought Cavaliers had been as good if not better than Cadets all 3 nights of finals week. That would probably be the tie I was most excited about, as at least the judges got it right on finals. I thought Blue Devils should have had 96, and SCV should have had 99.

But in all honesty, with the level of the top 3 corps, Blue Devils, Cadets and Cavaliers, it is sometimes surprising that there isn't more flipping during finals week.

Wow, you obviously hated Phantom 2008. I cannot tell you how much I disagree with you on this point. Cavies deserved third. I loved the top 4 corps' shows that year, but the judges got it absolutely right imo. Oh, and please remember this is only your opinion. You don't speak for everyone else, so there. :grouphug:

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With all the love and respect for Madison ( I hope my kid gets his wish and marches with them) Didn't Madison get the 11th slot in finals by way of a blind draw, with the 12th slot went to the defending champion (Cadets)?

If that is the case, 88 should not count in this argument.

A rule is a rule, and all competing corps complied with the rules that year. Please explain the logic of your argument, particularly when the defending champion had always performed last. You do know that Madison won semis by more than a point, right?

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well, and let's be honest. Phantom's percussion was off the charts good, and BD's was hurting them. look at the recaps...it affected ensemble music as well

No argument. ScoJo took a risk (Duh!....name of the show) and what was supposed to be flamboyant, became vaudeville and not what the judges wanted to see. They risked it, and lost (by a fraction). Last year, ScoJo was possessed (IMO) because of it, and his perc line went undefeated (not an easy chore amongst these great corps lines in the top 7).

Concerning the other captions, BD was dominant and that made the loss even more painful.

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And 99 SCV is the perfect example to illustrate your point. The elevation of performance level enhanced and excellent design ... but it was the performance that made the difference and not the design.

I wasn't following DCI in 1999, but SCV's results that season were excellent, throughout the season. They finished first in 26 shows, second in only 3. They were right there the whole time.

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No argument. ScoJo took a risk (Duh!....name of the show) and what was supposed to be flamboyant, became vaudeville and not what the judges wanted to see. They risked it, and lost (by a fraction). Last year, ScoJo was possessed (IMO) because of it, and his perc line went undefeated (not an easy chore amongst these great corps lines in the top 7).

Concerning the other captions, BD was dominant and that made the loss even more painful.

except they didn't win them all. hence why you add all the parts up and get the final number.

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Man I gotta say this is one of the most interesting thread's that I've read in a long time ! You guy's are very good at statistic's , Thank's Smitty :grouphug:

Edited by rudi man
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Man I gotta say this is one of the most interesting thread's that I've read in a long time ! You guy's are very good at statistic's , Thank's Smitty :worthy:

I agree, this is interesting. I'm glad I dragged this debate back from Finals week '06. :P This was only half of it, too. I wonder what the West Coast inflation part would have started. :worthy:

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