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Predictors of Competitive Success


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Because I'm trying very hard to procrastinate, I had the following query:

Obviously, a lot of us have given a lot of thought into factors that contribute to competitive success in a corps, whether that is member age, staff quality, funding, et cetera.

Has anyone ever actually done a statistical analysis of this? Or, for that matter, do accurate data even exist? Does the DCI headquarters keep any such data? Even from purely quantitative predictors, I suspect we may find very interesting information.

Why does this matter? Obviously most of us agree that it is the experience, not the outcome, of drum corps that matters most to the marching members; however, I don't think it an unreasonable assumption to suppose that there is, in DCI as in many other activities, a high correlation between competitive success and long-term financial stability. Although much of the correlation could be due to the obvious causality of "more funding leads to better staff/equipment/etc leads to competitive success," a highly successful corps surely has an easier time obtaining corporate sponsorship, recruiting auditionees (which is a relevant source of income, given how top-tier corps charge three-figure audition fees), and consequently becoming more sustainably funded in the long run. If we want to secure the future of the activity, this relationship is not insignificant.

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Because I'm trying very hard to procrastinate, I had the following query:

Obviously, a lot of us have given a lot of thought into factors that contribute to competitive success in a corps, whether that is member age, staff quality, funding, et cetera.

Has anyone ever actually done a statistical analysis of this? Or, for that matter, do accurate data even exist? Does the DCI headquarters keep any such data? Even from purely quantitative predictors, I suspect we may find very interesting information.

Why does this matter? Obviously most of us agree that it is the experience, not the outcome, of drum corps that matters most to the marching members; however, I don't think it an unreasonable assumption to suppose that there is, in DCI as in many other activities, a high correlation between competitive success and long-term financial stability. Although much of the correlation could be due to the obvious causality of "more funding leads to better staff/equipment/etc leads to competitive success," a highly successful corps surely has an easier time obtaining corporate sponsorship, recruiting auditionees (which is a relevant source of income, given how top-tier corps charge three-figure audition fees), and consequently becoming more sustainably funded in the long run. If we want to secure the future of the activity, this relationship is not insignificant.

No question that success breeds success. I don't know about the financial impact on success however. In years past I know that Troopers had one of the most solid financial bases of any organization in the activity (don't know if that holds true today or not). While they have always been a fan favorite, and rightly so, their competative standing has been hit or miss in the last couple of decades. One thing that I think plays a big part in competative success is staff consistency. I know that in the case of the Blue Devils, there are a good half dozen folks that are still on staff that were there when I marched in the mid '80s and before. The ability to get the best teachers and designers and then hang onto them I think is as big a factor to success as anything.

Just my thoughts.

Dan

Edited by Dan Detweiler
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Because I'm trying very hard to procrastinate, I had the following query:

Obviously, a lot of us have given a lot of thought into factors that contribute to competitive success in a corps, whether that is member age, staff quality, funding, et cetera.

Has anyone ever actually done a statistical analysis of this? Or, for that matter, do accurate data even exist? Does the DCI headquarters keep any such data? Even from purely quantitative predictors, I suspect we may find very interesting information.

Why does this matter? Obviously most of us agree that it is the experience, not the outcome, of drum corps that matters most to the marching members; however, I don't think it an unreasonable assumption to suppose that there is, in DCI as in many other activities, a high correlation between competitive success and long-term financial stability. Although much of the correlation could be due to the obvious causality of "more funding leads to better staff/equipment/etc leads to competitive success," a highly successful corps surely has an easier time obtaining corporate sponsorship, recruiting auditionees (which is a relevant source of income, given how top-tier corps charge three-figure audition fees), and consequently becoming more sustainably funded in the long run. If we want to secure the future of the activity, this relationship is not insignificant.

Maybe financial survival is a better phrase! Some very great corps have existed on a shoestring, going back to the early days of DCI (and before). Take a look at Blue Rock's busses in old pictures...probably the worst I ever saw. Also in my marching Cadet days we all knew that the 27th Lancers were just about scraping by, financially. The Cadets were one step ahead of creditors more than once. Phantom Regiment had $$$ issues in rlatively recent times, discussed quite a bit here in DCP....etc.

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Staff consistency would certainly play a role. I am also guessing that membership consistency would be important. I do know in this age of auditions many people jump from corps to corps, but some find a corps and remain. I know two corps that are rather steady as far as placement and quality are Bluecoats and Boston Crusaders and it is my understanding that a good number from both corps march for two or three years with the corps. I've seen Carolina Crown's website and they celebrate some people who marched five and six years with the corps and aged out. I know another post mentioned that Cavaliers had 54 age outs this year, but if you look at their Facebook page or photos of the other members, they looked very young which to me would suggest that they have great potential at rebounding next season.

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This is one of those assumptions that's true until it isn't. Corps like 27th Lancers and Bridgemen were successful competitively in the 70s and still vanished. More recently successful groups like Madison and Phantom were financially close to the abyss. Few corps have substantial reserves to call on. One bad financial decision or one unfortunately turn of events and anything can happen.

No doubt competitive success helps fund-raising, recruiting and a lot of intangibles. But that's all it is: help.

HH

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For part of what you are looking for, search "competitive intertia" in this forum.

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